Interesting Stat #1 - When we play affects our results in a BIG way

[Nero]

Our results seem to be massively influenced by when we play.

If we break the first 40 games down into the following cliché's;

 

'Whole Week to Prepare'

 

W - 52 % (11)   L -  14% (3)    D - 34% (7) - close to our season average.

 

'Midweek Under the Lights'

 

W - 70 % (7)   L -  10% (1)    D - 20% (2)

 

'Third Game in a Week*' (Saturday Games)

 

W - 22 % (2)   L -  45% (4)    D - 33% (3)

 

Some Caveat's

• We have had 7 midweek home games which skews the data a bit (and obviously not all were under the lights)
• *For the pedants technically Saturday to Saturday is 8 days but you know what I mean as did the Beatles
• A couple of games dont quite fit the categories but they are close enough.
• We often won the next game after the 'third game' - so 4 games in 11 days doesn't seem a problem - as long as we are at home.

 

Conclusion?

Statistically that is a massive difference. The facts seem to back it up that we have an older team that struggled with the volumes of games. Any others?

Now a bit worried about the Wycombe and Pompey games.

 

[Willie Henderson]

That's quite startling numbers, and it certainly seems to indicate we're just not fit enough for that third game.

 

But hopefully the extra motivation of the end of season push for the playoffs will carry us through.

 

[Tamworthowl]

Your interesting stat #2 shows a significantly better points haul with our current formation. Assuming we don’t go back to 4-4-2 in the remaining games, you should discount those the 10 games of the season from this analysis. 

[WestBerksOwl]

what about a Saturday game 'under the lights'  

[onlyonedavidhirst]

46 minutes ago, Nero said:

Our results seem to be massively influenced by when we play.

If we break the first 40 games down into the following cliché's;

 

'Whole Week to Prepare'

 

W - 52 % (11)   L -  14% (3)    D - 34% (7) - close to our season average.

 

'Midweek Under the Lights'

 

W - 70 % (7)   L -  10% (1)    D - 20% (2)

 

'Third Game in a Week*' (Saturday Games)

 

W - 22 % (2)   L -  45% (4)    D - 33% (3)

 

Some Caveat's

• We have had 7 midweek home games which skews the data a bit (and obviously not all were under the lights)
• *For the pedants technically Saturday to Saturday is 8 days but you know what I mean as did the Beatles
• A couple of games dont quite fit the categories but they are close enough.
• We often won the next game after the 'third game' - so 4 games in 11 days doesn't seem a problem - as long as we are at home.

 

Conclusion?

Statistically that is a massive difference. The facts seem to back it up that we have an older team that struggled with the volumes of games. Any others?

Now a bit worried about the Wycombe and Pompey games.

 

Interesting data. For the Wycombe and Portsmouth games I wonder how fans would feel if we put out a fresh side? We've got a 2nd back 3 of Palmer, Gibson, Iorfa waiting on the sidelines, a wingback of NML, maybe a 2nd wingback of Palmer if Dunkley is the 3rd centre back. Up front could be Patterson and Kamberi (I'm possibly wrongly assuming that this Saturday he'll start with Berahino) and he has 2 CMs in Adenorin and whatshisname from Man City (old age getting me here). Windass could play in the Bannan role and that doesn't  include Shodipo who could play wingback, Sow who can play up top, Brennan whose not let us down whenever he's played and I may even be missing someone. 

[GermanBird]

@Nero

Thanks a lot for these stats.

It confirms my feeling that we always have a drop in form when there are too many games, but I am surprised that the midweek game results are so good.

[paulrs]

With a near fully fit squad now it’ll be interesting to see how many changes Moore makes.

 

We’ve clearly done better with a settled side, as you’d expect, but if as it seems we do struggle with 3-game weeks then our superior squad strength should be a huge asset… if used correctly. 

[paulrs]

5 minutes ago, onlyonedavidhirst said:

Interesting data. For the Wycombe and Portsmouth games I wonder how fans would feel if we put out a fresh side? We've got a 2nd back 3 of Palmer, Gibson, Iorfa waiting on the sidelines, a wingback of NML, maybe a 2nd wingback of Palmer if Dunkley is the 3rd centre back. Up front could be Patterson and Kamberi (I'm possibly wrongly assuming that this Saturday he'll start with Berahino) and he has 2 CMs in Adenorin and whatshisname from Man City (old age getting me here). Windass could play in the Bannan role and that doesn't  include Shodipo who could play wingback, Sow who can play up top, Brennan whose not let us down whenever he's played and I may even be missing someone. 

I’d expect our ‘usual’ team to line up against MK and then definitely some changes against Crewe. We really ought to be able to give 3 or 4 players a rest considering the calibre of the replacements and still beat a relegated team. Then go back to our first choice XI against Wycombe and hope that resting a few helped.

[Tamworthowl]

13 minutes ago, paulrs said:

I’d expect our ‘usual’ team to line up against MK and then definitely some changes against Crewe. We really ought to be able to give 3 or 4 players a rest considering the calibre of the replacements and still beat a relegated team. Then go back to our first choice XI against Wycombe and hope that resting a few helped.

It’s a difficult one this, and no doubt Moore will get slated whatever he does if we drop points.

 

For me, the priority against Crewe is three points, then boosting the goal difference, and then resting players. So I’d start (v Crewe) with the strongest team we have, I.e. the current regular 11 except maybe Berahino for NML. 
 

Out of interest, which three or four would you be looking at resting? If Gibson is back, maybe we could rest Hutchinson, but I would not risk any of Iorfa, Dunkley, Adeniran, Dele-Bashiru, Windass or Palmer.

[Blatter]

42 minutes ago, paulrs said:

With a near fully fit squad now it’ll be interesting to see how many changes Moore makes.

 

We’ve clearly done better with a settled side, as you’d expect, but if as it seems we do struggle with 3-game weeks then our superior squad strength should be a huge asset… if used correctly. 

Get ready for the first poor result, it will be ‘Moore out he tinkers too much’.

[Nero]

1 hour ago, Tamworthowl said:

Your interesting stat #2 shows a significantly better points haul with our current formation. Assuming we don’t go back to 4-4-2 in the remaining games, you should discount those the 10 games of the season from this analysis. 

Fair point - so combining the two stats

 

First ten games - 433

 

'Whole Week to Prepare' W - 1   L -  3   D - 2 - 

 

'Midweek Under the Lights' W - 2   L -  0    D - 0

 

'Third Game in a Week*' (Saturday Games) W - 1   L -  1    D - 0

 

 

 

Next 30 - 352

 

'Whole Week to Prepare' W - 9   L - 1    D - 5  

 

'Midweek Under the Lights' W - 5   L - 1    D - 2

 

'Third Game in a Week*' (Saturday Games) W - 1   L -  3   D - 3

 

 

Quite clearly shows that the Third Game in a Week is a massive factor all season -  since we changed to 352 - we have only lost twice when this hasn't been the case - the Sunderland night game - prep ruined by Covid game - and Oxford away.

 

Interesting?

[GermanBird]

40 minutes ago, Nero said:

 

 

 

Quite clearly shows that the Third Game in a Week is a massive factor all season -  since we changed to 352 - we have only lost twice when this hasn't been the case - the Sunderland night game - prep ruined by Covid game - and Oxford away.

 

Interesting?

 

YES!! Very interesting!!

Thanks

[Buck Rogers]

1 hour ago, Tamworthowl said:

It’s a difficult one this, and no doubt Moore will get slated whatever he does if we drop points.

 

For me, the priority against Crewe is three points, then boosting the goal difference, and then resting players.

Exactly.

Perfect scenario is we play our strongest team vs Crewe, go 3 up before half time then start resting some players and just play the rest of the game out at training pace.

[paulrs]

1 hour ago, Tamworthowl said:

It’s a difficult one this, and no doubt Moore will get slated whatever he does if we drop points.

 

For me, the priority against Crewe is three points, then boosting the goal difference, and then resting players. So I’d start (v Crewe) with the strongest team we have, I.e. the current regular 11 except maybe Berahino for NML. 
 

Out of interest, which three or four would you be looking at resting? If Gibson is back, maybe we could rest Hutchinson, but I would not risk any of Iorfa, Dunkley, Adeniran, Dele-Bashiru, Windass or Palmer.

It’s more a case of what I expect Moore to do. He’s hinted at squad rotation during the run-in and the Crewe game seems like the ideal opportunity if you’re that way inclined. I can certainly see Gibson for Hutch, Mendez-Laing for Johnson on the wing, Adeniran or Dele-Bashiru for Luongo or Byers. 

 

Personally I’d always be trying to play my strongest side especially at this stage of the season. The likes of Liverpool and Man City keep changes to a minimum and key men like Salah seem to play every game. It’d take a compelling argument from the fitness dept -ie someone’s stats are showing they’re really tired - to make me change it 
 

 

[Fablon Dunlop]

So, what your saying is that we will beat MK Dons 5-0 this weekend? 

 

 

[nevthelodgemoorowl]

Yes Great work   We need those stats replicating on....

 

• Temperature
• Wind direction
• wet or dry
• snow or Icy
• BJ's on the kop or not
• pink, black and Stripe or Blue shirts
• Multi coloured boots
• Haircuts
• Smoke flares yes or no
• travel on the day
• Overnight
• Times of subs

 

 

Surely we can applying this method manage to near the 120 point mark, just do the stats !

[upperwinngardensowl]

Do we ever play the same side three games in a row? 
 

[duncanidaho]

Interesting, but doesn't take into consideration the strength of the opposition in the third match.  Also, when were these third matches, how many at the start of the season with injuries/new players etc and which are later when form improved?

[SiJ]

7 hours ago, Fablon Dunlop said:

So, what your saying is that we will beat MK Dons 5-0 this weekend? 

 

 

Yeah, and then f*ck up against Crewe and Wycombe 

[Suzuki_San]

7 minutes ago, duncanidaho said:

Interesting, but doesn't take into consideration the strength of the opposition in the third match.  Also, when were these third matches, how many at the start of the season with injuries/new players etc and which are later when form improved?

 

Also, how many games had the opposites played...and how many will Wycombe/Portsmouth have played before their games against us.