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Josh Windass and the fine margins of promotion


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Six weeks ago open most threads on here and you’d read ‘we need Gregory’. Remember, at this time we had about 12 or 13 fit first-picks and we were absolutely flying.

 

I never understood the clamour for the return of a decent but so-so striker when we were scoring for fun and winning virtually every game.Yes of course any returning player, especially a good striker, would benefit us, but to me it was foolish to want to change a fundamental cog in a winning team. Has it helped us? Well our form has dropped and we’ll never know what we’d have done of we’d stuck with the winning formula. 

 

So, will Windass make the difference? Would we see a selfless forward who helps fire us to promotion, or would we see his greedier side, where he starves others of oportunities? Let’s be honest, we’ve seen both sides of Windass over his time here. He can be brilliant, but Christ can he be frustrating and selfish. 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, SiJ said:

You're blaming Gregory for our dip in form? 

 

Ridiculous.


That’s not what my post says at all.

 

I never understood the clamour to change the winning formula. 
 

Moving on to Windass, frankly I’m far less keen on him than most fans are. I’d be very happy to see our two striker slots shared mainly between Gregory, Paterson and Berahino, with Windass used for late impact.

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7 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

I never understood the clamour to change the winning formula. 

 

The run you're referring to started with the Ipswich game - in which Storey and Dean made their debuts and Johnson was reinstated to the left flank.

 

In the 10 games since then that we've started without Gregory in the starting lineup, we lined up with:

 

Windass / Kamberi x2

Mendez-Laing / Paterson x2

Paterson / Kamberi

Kamberi / Sow

Paterson / Berahino x3

Paterson / Sow

 

Which one was the 'winning formula'?

 

In that time, we've started 7 home games without Gregory, with an average of 2.29 ppg, and 3 away games, with an average of 2 ppg (overall average of 2.2 ppg and 1.8 goals per game).

 

In the same period, we've started 3 home games with Gregory, with an average of 3 ppg, and 2 away games, with an average of 1 ppg (overall average of 2.2 ppg and 2.6 goals per game).

 

The 'drop in form' doesn't seem to exist, at least not in relation to Gregory's return to the starting lineup, especially when you factor in the higher proportion of home games that we've started without Gregory in that time, and if we were 'scoring for fun' without him, then that's only got better since his return.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Hyde2005 said:

That's why windass needs to go in the summer 

 

Over the course of his career, he's been fit and consistent. This is the first season for him where he's been out with a prolonged injury. 

 

I think to just dismiss him on the back of one season is harsh. He's a good player and has made a heck of an impact when he has played. 

 

If he comes back and stays fit for the remaining few games of the season, then i see no reason not to keep him. Especially if we are playing out football in league 1 again. 

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After the Rotherham home defeat in which we started with NML and Paterson up front, everyone was saying if only we had Gregory and Windass up front, we would have won.

 

No doubt they are our best striker pairing but without Windass the best options to partner Gregory have shown to be Berahino and Paterson.

 

NML looked like a fish out of water playing as a central striker in that Rotherham game and he hasn't looked happy every time he has played there since.

 

I worry that DM now sees NML as the man to be part of our front two.

 

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Bonne at Ipswich has just ended a run of 17 games without scoring, 1 goal in his last 23 games now I think it is.  Ipswich fans are convinced they would be in the autos if he had continued his early season form. 

 

100% agree with the OP’s point though, it’s fine margins and a fit Windass would have had us pushing for autos in my opinion 

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2 hours ago, runningaround said:

gregory is best striker at the club, the conundrum is his partner and as time goes on looks saido with the available shouts

That he may be, but to be effective he needs a specific set of circumstances, be it partner, tactic or opposition. 

 

This means sometimes he's awesome and we roll over teams, but more often than not he's largely innefective, and we get countered as we play a certain way when he plays and drop points. We also lose an outlet, a pressing forward or a defensive forward to accommodate him as he's no good defensively.

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The OP makes a good point re Windass. 
After the late equaliser at Bolton, I expected all the usual dogsht threads about Moore etc but the actual problem is we don’t take our chances. 
Not Moore, not substitutions, not tactics or formation.

It’s our inability to finish, throughout the season. The Bolton shots stats are crazy for a 1-1 draw. Infrequently we do have a good conversion rate, but overall, it’s poor, goals to shots / chances taken. 

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On 11/04/2022 at 12:13, GermanBird said:

The whole injury problem this season is a pain.

 

Our replacement striker, whom we brought in in January is another example 

18 min on the pitch 🙄

image.png.e6c69345e184a947e172ffc29cf792f0.png

 

 

 

 

I can remember when many used to say our injury issues were the fault of CC.

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On 12/04/2022 at 16:44, The only way is S6 said:

The OP makes a good point re Windass. 
After the late equaliser at Bolton, I expected all the usual dogsht threads about Moore etc but the actual problem is we don’t take our chances. 
Not Moore, not substitutions, not tactics or formation.

It’s our inability to finish, throughout the season. The Bolton shots stats are crazy for a 1-1 draw. Infrequently we do have a good conversion rate, but overall, it’s poor, goals to shots / chances taken. 

That’s not true.

 

We’ve actually finished better than most. This table calculates how we’d be performing if each match was decided on expected goals.

 

As of 2nd April, we’d scored 66 goals against an expected goals of 61.6.

 

https://experimental361.com/2022/04/05/expected-goals-table-league-1-2-apr-2022/

 

 

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On 11/04/2022 at 12:03, paulrs said:

The thread about Moore's future, and the impact of the injuries he's had to cope with, got me thinking about how much of a loss Windass in particular has been this season. I think it's fair to say that in pre-season most fans saw him as a key man - possibly THE key man - this year. So to lose him for virtually the whole season has been a hammer blow.

Even more so when you consider that if we beat MK and win our game in hand we in theory could be 4 points off automatic. Would Windass alone have closed that gap and had us tussling for the title with Wigan? I genuinely believe he would.

 

One stat I looked at was games missed by our rivals' key strikers.
Keane (Wigan) - 2 league games missed this season
Twine (MK) - 1
Smith (Rotherham) - 1
Hardie (Plymouth) - 7
Stewart (Sunderland) - 0
Vokes (Wycombe) - 3
Taylor (Oxford) - 2
Bonne (Ipswich) - 3
Windass (Sheff Wed) - 34

So Windass alone has missed double the number of games missed by the eight other top strikers put together. Incredible. Even Lee Gregory has missed 10, which again is more than any other the others.

This to me starts to look like the single biggest factor that has kept us out of the automatic promotion race. It seems perfectly reasonable that, had Windass played 40 games like his contemporaries, the additional goals he'd have scored would have secured us the handful of extra points we'd have needed to be looking at an automatic promotion place. After all, he's score 4 in 3+4 appearances when he has played and 12 in 41 starts at championship level for the club. 

So yes we can analyse Moore's team tinkering especially in the early part of the season, and the injuries we had at centre half, and all the late goals and set-piece goals and chances missed, but for me this is the single biggest factor that might cost us promotion. A fit Windass, playing 35-40 games, and we'd be top 2 now I'm sure of it.


nobody cares but Twine isn’t a striker. Our strikers and Mo Eisa and Connor Wickham.

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7 minutes ago, McRightSide said:

Are not what they seem v Holm Owl is second only to reggae v Andy

 

Not at all.

 

There's nothing personal in it - we both just chat sh*t about football and happen to have different takes on things sometimes. And I'm sure we agree on most things, anyway.

 

I'd never dream of calling him a 'pork pie snake', or anything like that.

 

:duntmatter:

Edited by areNOTwhatTHEYseem
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On 11/04/2022 at 12:13, GermanBird said:

The whole injury problem this season is a pain.

 

Our replacement striker, whom we brought in in January is another example 

18 min on the pitch 🙄

image.png.e6c69345e184a947e172ffc29cf792f0.png

 

 

 

 

He got injured within 18 seconds of coming on - stretched for a poor pass and that was that...

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1 minute ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

It's been great to see Windass getting a bit of game time these past couple of matches.

 

If he's fit enough to play anything more then a brief cameo role in our playoff games, then that could be massive for us.

Doubt he will start either of the semis but if he does make an impact as a sub would DM risk him for the final to actually start? Should we get there of course 

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