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Automatic promotion gone? Playoff hopes still alive! Some calculations…


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A bit crude but…

Points to finish 2nd over last 5 full seasons

2021 87

2020 COVID

2019 91

2018 96

2017 86

2016 85

 

Average points=89, points per game=1.93.

After 24 games we have 37 points so miles off with 1.54 PPG.

 

Points to finish 6th over last 5 full seasons

2021 74

2020 COVID

2019 73

2018 71

2017 73

2016 74

 

Average points=73, PPG=1.59, makes our 1.54 PPG look more hopeful albeit a bit desperate trying to cling on to 6th place with all the ‘on paper’ quality we have.

 

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Top 2 out of sight, top 6 probably gone too.

 

At the halfway stage, the teams above us are on target for 80 points. All have been fairly consistent, so a collapse for multiple teams seems unlikely. 

 

The key marker I looked at is wins, the top 8 last season all won at least 20 games. We've got 22 games left and still 11 wins short of that for a top 8 finish, never mind top 6. 

 

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. That's the situate we find ourselves in with Moore. Every key marker says we are a mid table team, if there is a genuine aspiration for promotion Chansiri needs to act now.

 

We dont score enough, can't defend, the midfield can only retain possession and complete passes in our own half going backwards. We don't even have the sense to play players in their correct positions. I've tried, but can't find anything positive to hang a possible upturn in results on. 

 

It needs a change, fresh impetus, like Dave Jones brough when we got us promoted. Without change we aren't getting any closer to the top 6, never mind being credible candidates to succeed via the play offs.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Bez said:

So what?  Enjoy League 1 and the rebuild. 
 

No rush. 

 

F*** off Bez..........actually I agree.

 

With what went off at the end of last season I was worried we might not even survive L1, yes we're crap, but not as crap as I expected.

 

We've been here quite a few times in the past and never jumped straight back up, think everyone got carried away with the amount of new players we signed, but that brings it's own problems when you have no money to spend and have to source frees.

 

L1 has always been tough to get out of, we're still in a position to stumble over the line like Sturrock did, it's not impossible, but we really need the likes of Dunkley, Luongo and Windass playing.

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Also worth looking at goal difference. Not always a true indicator but we're not really a team who is going to eek out a lot of 1-0 wins so I think it gives an idea as to future performance as compared to our rivals. We're on +3 (albeit we've just had a hammering at Sunderland) whereas Rotherham, Sunderland and Wigan are all at over +20. Unless they spectacularly collapse they will finish miles ahead of us. 

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On 03/01/2022 at 11:00, Lodge Moor Owl said:

A bit crude but…

Points to finish 2nd over last 5 full seasons

2021 87

2020 COVID

2019 91

2018 96

2017 86

2016 85

 

Average points=89, points per game=1.93.

After 24 games we have 37 points so miles off with 1.54 PPG.

 

Points to finish 6th over last 5 full seasons

2021 74

2020 COVID

2019 73

2018 71

2017 73

2016 74

 

Average points=73, PPG=1.59, makes our 1.54 PPG look more hopeful albeit a bit desperate trying to cling on to 6th place with all the ‘on paper’ quality we have.

 

I've done some fag packet maths based on your numbers.

 

For the remainder of the season, to achieve top two we now need 2.36ppg and top six we now need 1.64ppg

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1 hour ago, Manwë said:

I've done some fag packet maths based on your numbers.

 

For the remainder of the season, to achieve top two we now need 2.36ppg and top six we now need 1.64ppg


There’s no question automatic promotion has gone.

 

The Play-Offs are more than achievable.

 

We need something like this over our 22 remaining games:-

 

P22. W11. D5. L6

 

P22. W10. D8. L4

 

P22. W9. D11. L2

 

We are capable of that, but obviously not if we play anything like we’ve played in the last two games.

 

5 of our next 7 games are at home. We could emerge from them in great shape full of momentum. Or not.

 

 

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On 03/01/2022 at 13:24, Weshallovercome said:

 

F*** off Bez..........actually I agree.

 

With what went off at the end of last season I was worried we might not even survive L1, yes we're crap, but not as crap as I expected.

 

We've been here quite a few times in the past and never jumped straight back up, think everyone got carried away with the amount of new players we signed, but that brings it's own problems when you have no money to spend and have to source frees.

 

L1 has always been tough to get out of, we're still in a position to stumble over the line like Sturrock did, it's not impossible, but we really need the likes of Dunkley, Luongo and Windass playing.

Agree with you that we really need Dunkley, Luongo and Windass playing, regularly and asap.

IMO they are important players.

 

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It seems a forlorn hope to me

We do this every time...

HMS PTL sets sail for automatic

runs into a bit o trouble in the North atlantic....has to head for a play off port

Hits the ******** doldrums where it stops still for 2 months...

 

f.ookin' sinks

 

 

rinse an' repeat

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Guest 123adam789
On 03/01/2022 at 13:24, Weshallovercome said:

 

F*** off Bez..........actually I agree.

 

With what went off at the end of last season I was worried we might not even survive L1, yes we're crap, but not as crap as I expected.

 

We've been here quite a few times in the past and never jumped straight back up, think everyone got carried away with the amount of new players we signed, but that brings it's own problems when you have no money to spend and have to source frees.

 

L1 has always been tough to get out of, we're still in a position to stumble over the line like Sturrock did, it's not impossible, but we really need the likes of Dunkley, Luongo and Windass playing.

Let's hope the 6 point reduction doesnt kick in and the injuries clear up quickly. 

 

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5 minutes ago, MallorcaOwl said:

Yes there is I'm 73

Exactly mate!!!..These f.ookin' young 40yr olds

"Lets rebuild...take us time..build slowly etc"

F.ook reight off

I want it now...I want to go to Old Trafford, anfield, The Emirates...(yea I know i bloody can....but to watch Wednesday)

I want to laugh at Blades again

and I want it ...NOW!!!!

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