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Unless this changes, we have no chance...


SiJ

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Just for some context, that stat isn’t nearly as bad it looks , 84% of home teams that score first go on to win the game (source below). So our 14.5% chance of winning/drawing when conceding first is only -1.5% worse than what’s expected. 

 

https://barcainnovationhub.com/examining-the-effect-of-scoring-first-in-the-outcome-of-a-football-match/
 

I wonder what the real issue is here. I’d like to see the stats for losses/draws  even when we scored first too away from home as I’m sure they are equally poor, albeit not as bad. People are forgetting, the endless issues we had during those years too with managers, recruitment, tactics, injuries…we haven’t been a good team for years so it’s hardly surprising.
 

Hard to see it in the ‘stats’ but how many of those games where we self destructed after conceding first was because of the terrible tactical decisions made by the string of awful managers we’ve had? We had a reputation under CC for scoring late goals so I don’t see how we can be blaming certain players too. 

 

Just as interesting for 3 years we were a consistent mid table team, highly reliant on our good home form - makes you wonder how impactful no fans in stadiums really was for us. 


17/18 - 15th

18/19 - 12th

19/20 - 16th

20/21 - 24th

 

I’m pretty certain that stat will come to end fairly soon this season anyway. Comical people implying in this chat players that are still here are the issue….only 3 starters from that era remain Bannan, Hutchinson and occasionally Palmer. Not quite sure that’s the issue….

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