BIG D Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 I expect a lot of 1-0 & 2-0 wins this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LondonOwl313 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 46 minutes ago, 0742 said: Not many people out of sport/performance analysis/betting put much value on such stats, however i'd say this stacks up well with what i've been seeing during the games. Look at the fleetwood game, the first 25 minutes we looked like we were going to slaughter them, but it ended up with us having the same shots and shots on target as them and only beating them 1-0, a team who now sit 3rd bottom. I firmly believe that DM will be using these stats to make us better, even if most fans have no clue about them. I wonder how much the bookies look at this because they had us as 3.5 to win at Rotherham and we're about 1.9 go win at Morecambe. I'd have thought we'd be much shorter than that as usually in the PL or Championship the big sides are very short odds. So it looks mispriced and been taking advantage by having a bet on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beswetherick Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Last season’s Championship xG table had Bristol City relegated in bottom place, 17 points worse off than they actually were. I’m not gonna go full dinosaur but I’m a bit sceptical of how much value should be placed on xG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlprince Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, tcuc3e said: It's great to be top of the league, unbeaten and without conceding a goal. Ultimately those are the stats that matter and if they continue then HMS PSL will be full steam ahead. However the odds are that it won't be quite that straightforward over the next 40+ games. For a slightly more detailed look at the performances so far I took a look at the xG stats. For those that don't know xG stands for expected goals scored per game. It's calculated by taking into account shot positions, shot accuracy (on/off target), shot frequency (number of shots), attack dangerousness and overall attack pressure (possession amount and depth of possession). It's generally understood to provide a more detailed assessment of how a team is playing than the win/loss column, even if that is all that matters at the end of the day. Top teams use it to assess their performances (and it's used a lot in fantasy football). So far Wednesday are: 18th in xG with 0.62 per game. I think many have pointed out that despite picking up points we've not actually been clicking on all cylinders yet and this would back that up. Certainly areas to improve and as the squad gels hopefully better performances will come. A note about Saturday. That game will be between the worst side in xG at Home, Morecambe, with 0.37 per game against the us, the second worst side in Away xG at 0.32. It might not be a classic for the neutrals! Our XG for individual games: Charlton .88 donny 1.53 fleetwood 1.5 rotherham.84 How have they come out with an average of .62? also don't know they have calculated it as Rotherham chances were both high quality chances where the forward should be expected to score? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmowl Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Willie Henderson said: So we should lose on average 0.76-0.62 in every game. But we're top of the league with the best goal difference in the league. Confused.com Cloughie once said “It only takes 0.76 of a second to score 0.76 of a goal”. I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holmowl Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 The top six in this division last year lost loads of games. Hull 11 Pbro 11 —————- Blackpool 12 Sunderland 9 Lincoln 13 Oxford 16 We WILL lose plenty. Cold Winter nights in Accrington, drab windy days in Milton Keynes, Soulless Saturdays in Burton...it will happen. But boy do we look strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willie Henderson Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, Holmowl said: Cloughie once said “It only takes 0.76 of a second to score 0.76 of a goal”. I think. You forgot to add the obligatory "... young man" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsleyowl1996 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Interesting stats , to be honest if you look at each game we’ve not had a load of Chances but that’s not a worry . Soon as wing , Byers , Shodipo , Theo , Johnson etc etc all get sharper we will get more chances . I’d rate our performances as a 6/7 out of 10 so far this year but results being a 9. As we gel more we will create and score more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plonk Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Dan™ said: Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division. Excuse my ignorance but how can a team that’s not conceded goal this season. The best defence in the league, be ranked 18 th in being likely to concede Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlyonedavidhirst Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 To be fair, we haven't created bucketfuls of chances in each game so far and apart from short spells in games we've not been massively on top. The main reason we are top is that we haven't conceded. Like all data, it has its limitations but in Baseball, the first coach to really use such data took an average team to the best ever winning run in the league and won the World Series, with players signed that were not really highly rated. Brentford use data far more than most other clubs and have shown its value, especially in selling players. Personally, I do think there's something in this, in as far as we have to improve the number of chances we are creating (and not have a similar number of extra chances created against us) to maintain our current position. Hopefully DM knows this and as we integrate the out and out wingers (+ Windass who I think might be played as one in plenty of games) then we will see the increase in chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S25OWL Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 The only stats that really matter ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S25OWL Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 A great reminder that stats are only useful if you can put them into context ......as my nan always said .... 100% of nothing is nothing So currently after the week-end footy stats states these: Who Has The Best xGA? Rotherham United FC has the best xGA (Expected Goals Against) in the EFL League One with just 0.42 goals expected against them per game. Arguably, this stat could suggest they have the best defence in this competition. So rotherham have scored 3 and conceded 3 so a 0 goal difference .... Who Has The Best xG? Currently, Sunderland AFC has the best xG (Expected Goals For) in the EFL League One with 1.38 xG per game. So Sunderland have scored 5 goals same as us but have conceded 3 ... And this is why you don't see a poor bookie if fans rely on these - in football there are just too many factors that screw these up !! (as wednesday fan's the last few seasons - we have helped how man teams stop their losing streaks!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legendaryswan Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Does this mean we cant find the G Spot? Just asking for a mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Willow Owl Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 The only stats that matter. 4 games 10 points, 0 conceded and TOP of the league. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see we are still a massive work in progress. DM and the club will have all the stats they need to analyse where we need to improve. .76, .72, .32, .84 who gives a rats ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morepork Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, fudge27 said: Expected goals is as good an indication of things as possession, throw ins or anything other inane stat. Pointless Yeah that Mathew Bennam bloke didn’t make a fortune out of xG, nor did he run two successful clubs operating around statistical analysis……. thus proving stats were “pointless”….. Edited August 23, 2021 by Morepork 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morepork Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Plonk said: Excuse my ignorance but how can a team that’s not conceded goal this season. The best defence in the league, be ranked 18 th in being likely to concede Number and quality of chances the opposition had against us. Edited August 23, 2021 by Morepork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sambo89 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 5 hours ago, OwlinOldham said: Not going to pretend i know all about that xG stuff, i tried to get into it once and got lost and confused in it all. Is 4 games enough to get a decent handle on the reliabilty of them kind of stats for teams yet? Truth is that in order to get out of this league, we are likley going to have play in some very unpretty/crap to watch games, which will require us at times to grind out the results. If we end up not being able to score many, we will then need to make sure we dont ship many goals. Had this conversation at work today with my customer. He's a Wednesdayite who was in a corporate box at NY stadium on Saturday, he said the game wasn't pretty but at least we won. But we're in League 1, there aren't going to be many decent games. The way out of this league is by not conceding and grinding out the scrappy 1-0 wins. Something we've done well so far this season. Keep it up and we'll be back out into the Championship next season. UTO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morepork Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 The power of stats. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Task Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, Plonk said: Excuse my ignorance but how can a team that’s not conceded goal this season. The best defence in the league, be ranked 18 th in being likely to concede It’s the fact that we’ve conceded a penalty in half the games we’ve played and penalties are scored 80% of the time. Strip that away and we’re comfortably the best defence in the league so far (assuming we stop giving penalties away) Edited August 23, 2021 by Random Task 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 I checked out the American stats (the one that has us winning the league...posted on another thread.) Anyhow it's fairly new and supposidly the most intense analysis of all. They got 6 right from 12 in div 1 on Saturday, percentage chances of winning that is. Which is just below what I usually get correct (7 from 12 on average). Without any number crunching needed...just hunches and decent favs. If stats were a good indication of final results the bookies would be out of business very quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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