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A statistical analysis of our start to the season


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Not going to pretend i know all about that xG stuff, i tried to get into it once and got lost and confused in it all. Is 4 games enough to get a decent handle on the reliabilty of them kind of stats for teams yet? 

 

Truth is that in order to get out of this league, we are likley going to have play in some very unpretty/crap to watch games, which will require us at times to grind out the results. If we end up not being able to score many, we will then need to make sure we dont ship many goals.

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5 minutes ago, Willie Henderson said:

Is there a similar stat for goals conceded?

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

Edited by Dan™
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2 minutes ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

 

Oh, hold on a minute, they put the list in reverse order for that "xGA" table for some reason. So being 18th we're actually the 6th best.

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1 minute ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

So we should lose on average  0.76-0.62 in every game.

But we're top of the league with the best goal difference in the league.

 

Confused.com

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4 minutes ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

A penalty is 0.8 xG and we’ve faced 2 this season so our non penalty xGA is 0.36 - best in the league as far as I can work out. 
 

Basically the standard of chances teams are creating against us would see us concede one every 3 games at the moment. 

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I never really looked at xG, but from what you have said, it pretty much ties in with what most here have been saying during/after matches, in so far that we clearly have a few extra gears to find yet, and the return of the likes of Sodipo and Windass, plus the inclusions of Sow and Corbeanu, should only make us stronger in the final third.

 

I'd expect that xG figure to increase as the players 'gel' and those currently out start returning, etc.

 

Besides, I think we can expect a lot of teams - especially at Hillsborough, to come and play tight and be stubborn to break down.

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10 minutes ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

Pretty pointless stuff as we sit at the top of the division with the best goal difference then. 
I recall an old saying that went something like ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’

 

If it’s accurate we’ll be 17th or 18th in the table next May. (Assuming the Dear Leader pays the wages of course).

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Not many people out of sport/performance analysis/betting put much value on such stats, however i'd say this stacks up well with what i've been seeing during the games.

 

Look at the fleetwood game, the first 25 minutes we looked like we were going to slaughter them, but it ended up with us having the same shots and shots on target as them and only beating them 1-0, a team who now sit 3rd bottom. 

 

I firmly believe that DM will be using these stats to make us better, even if most fans have no clue about them.

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15 minutes ago, 0742 said:

Not many people out of sport/performance analysis/betting put much value on such stats, however i'd say this stacks up well with what i've been seeing during the games.

 

Look at the fleetwood game, the first 25 minutes we looked like we were going to slaughter them, but it ended up with us having the same shots and shots on target as them and only beating them 1-0, a team who now sit 3rd bottom. 

 

I firmly believe that DM will be using these stats to make us better, even if most fans have no clue about them.

 

Yes. Analytics has transformed American sports. UK sports have been a bit slower, but are catching up. Still some way to go, as revealed by some of the comments in this thread 😁

 

Couple of write ups about xG from 2017 here: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/mar/30/expected-goals-big-football-data-leicester-city-norwich

 

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/no-seriously-what-heck-expected-goals-xg

 

Simon Rolfes, Bayern Leverkusen’s Sporting Director: “We always look at our xG as it provides good feedback on how our attacking play is developing. Basically, it’s good for us to have a high xG in comparison to our opponents, because it means we’ve taken a lot of chances. For fans, xG is a good reflection of how a game is going, something other stats such as possession, shots on goal, and duels won perhaps don’t always do quite so well.”

 

 

Edited by tcuc3e
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23 minutes ago, Random Task said:

A penalty is 0.8 xG and we’ve faced 2 this season so our non penalty xGA is 0.36 - best in the league as far as I can work out. 
 

Basically the standard of chances teams are creating against us would see us concede one every 3 games at the moment. 

That’s exactly what I was thinking. The two penalties skew the numbers somewhat for goals against. 

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5 minutes ago, tcuc3e said:

 

Yes. Analytics has transformed American sports. UK sports have been a bit slower, but are catching up. Still some way to go, as revealed by some of the comments in this thread 😁

 

Couple of write ups about xG from 2017 here: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/mar/30/expected-goals-big-football-data-leicester-city-norwich

 

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/no-seriously-what-heck-expected-goals-xg

 

Simon Rolfes, Bayern Leverkusen’s Sporting Director: “We always look at our xG as it provides good feedback on how our attacking play is developing. Basically, it’s good for us to have a high xG in comparison to our opponents, because it means we’ve taken a lot of chances. For fans, xG is a good reflection of how a game is going, something other stats such as possession, shots on goal, and duels won perhaps don’t always do quite so well.”

 

 

 

 

I did this course a while back, found it very interesting and well worth the fee to do all of the courses in the programme too!

 

https://www.coursera.org/specializations/sports-analytics?

 

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I can see how it makes sense to look at these stats. It’s about looking at deficiencies in your game that are sometimes masked by results so that you can improve your chances of winning over the long term. If you have more good chances over the long term you will get more goals. We beat Rotherham 2-0, which was great. But a similar performance against a different team could result in a draw or a loss.
 

That doesn’t mean the win and the points against Rotherham weren’t brilliant, just that the coaching staff might want to work on things that give us more chances of scoring more frequently so we are less reliant on say a penalty save or a goalkeeping howler. 
 

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xG/xGA have there place but only as an holistic assessment with the eye test telling you more. 
 

Ultimately we know as the xG/xGA has indicated that we’re not firing on all cylinders just yet but we’ve been solid and nicked goals when needed. 

 

Id expect our xGA to be very good if we can keep our back line fit. I’d like to think that once the likes of Shodipo/Windass/Theo start playing that our xG will vastly improve! 
 

 

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