A statistical analysis of our start to the season

[tcuc3e]

It's great to be top of the league, unbeaten and without conceding a goal.  Ultimately those are the stats that matter and if they continue then HMS PSL will be full steam ahead.  However the odds are that it won't be quite that straightforward over the next 40+ games.

 

For a slightly more detailed look at the performances so far I took a look at the xG stats.  For those that don't know xG stands for expected goals scored per game. It's calculated by taking into account shot positions, shot accuracy (on/off target), shot frequency (number of shots), attack dangerousness and overall attack pressure (possession amount and depth of possession).

 

It's generally understood to provide a more detailed assessment of how a team is playing than the win/loss column, even if that is all that matters at the end of the day.  Top teams use it to assess their performances (and it's used a lot in fantasy football).

 

So far Wednesday are:

 

18th in xG with 0.62 per game.

 

I think many have pointed out that despite picking up points we've not actually been clicking on all cylinders yet and this would back that up. Certainly areas to improve and as the squad gels hopefully better performances will come.

 

A note about Saturday.  That game will be between the worst side in xG at Home, Morecambe, with 0.37 per game against the us, the second worst side in Away xG at 0.32.   It might not be a classic for the neutrals! 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by tcuc3e

[Willie Henderson]

Is there a similar stat for goals conceded?

If it's 1-0 and 0-0 repeated all season that would do nicely, not pretty but effective.

[fudge27]

Expected goals is as good an indication of things as possession, throw ins or anything other inane stat.

 

Pointless 

[OwlinOldham]

Not going to pretend i know all about that xG stuff, i tried to get into it once and got lost and confused in it all. Is 4 games enough to get a decent handle on the reliabilty of them kind of stats for teams yet? 

 

Truth is that in order to get out of this league, we are likley going to have play in some very unpretty/crap to watch games, which will require us at times to grind out the results. If we end up not being able to score many, we will then need to make sure we dont ship many goals.

[Dan™]

5 minutes ago, Willie Henderson said:

Is there a similar stat for goals conceded?

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

Edited August 23, 2021 by Dan™

[Joe Sunburn]

Every little data point helps for DM and his staff to use in preparing the team. It's like having a scout on site at the opponent's as Bielsa? once did. 

[Dan™]

2 minutes ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

 

Oh, hold on a minute, they put the list in reverse order for that "xGA" table for some reason. So being 18th we're actually the 6th best.

[Willie Henderson]

1 minute ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

So we should lose on average  0.76-0.62 in every game.

But we're top of the league with the best goal difference in the league.

 

Confused.com

[punkskaphil]

I'd be worried if our cylinders were clicking.

[Random Task]

4 minutes ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

A penalty is 0.8 xG and we’ve faced 2 this season so our non penalty xGA is 0.36 - best in the league as far as I can work out. 
 

Basically the standard of chances teams are creating against us would see us concede one every 3 games at the moment. 

[axolotl]

I never really looked at xG, but from what you have said, it pretty much ties in with what most here have been saying during/after matches, in so far that we clearly have a few extra gears to find yet, and the return of the likes of Sodipo and Windass, plus the inclusions of Sow and Corbeanu, should only make us stronger in the final third.

 

I'd expect that xG figure to increase as the players 'gel' and those currently out start returning, etc.

 

Besides, I think we can expect a lot of teams - especially at Hillsborough, to come and play tight and be stubborn to break down.

[Blatter]

10 minutes ago, Dan™ said:

 

Yeah, and it's even worse for us! Our expected goals against is 0.76 per game, also 18th in the division.

Pretty pointless stuff as we sit at the top of the division with the best goal difference then. 
I recall an old saying that went something like ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’

 

If it’s accurate we’ll be 17th or 18th in the table next May. (Assuming the Dear Leader pays the wages of course).

[Guest hirstysfags]

13 minutes ago, punkskaphil said:

I'd be worried if our cylinders were clicking.

Piston slap

[0742]

Not many people out of sport/performance analysis/betting put much value on such stats, however i'd say this stacks up well with what i've been seeing during the games.

 

Look at the fleetwood game, the first 25 minutes we looked like we were going to slaughter them, but it ended up with us having the same shots and shots on target as them and only beating them 1-0, a team who now sit 3rd bottom. 

 

I firmly believe that DM will be using these stats to make us better, even if most fans have no clue about them.

[tcuc3e]

15 minutes ago, 0742 said:

Not many people out of sport/performance analysis/betting put much value on such stats, however i'd say this stacks up well with what i've been seeing during the games.

 

Look at the fleetwood game, the first 25 minutes we looked like we were going to slaughter them, but it ended up with us having the same shots and shots on target as them and only beating them 1-0, a team who now sit 3rd bottom. 

 

I firmly believe that DM will be using these stats to make us better, even if most fans have no clue about them.

 

Yes. Analytics has transformed American sports. UK sports have been a bit slower, but are catching up. Still some way to go, as revealed by some of the comments in this thread

 

Couple of write ups about xG from 2017 here: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/mar/30/expected-goals-big-football-data-leicester-city-norwich

 

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/no-seriously-what-heck-expected-goals-xg

 

Simon Rolfes, Bayern Leverkusen’s Sporting Director: “We always look at our xG as it provides good feedback on how our attacking play is developing. Basically, it’s good for us to have a high xG in comparison to our opponents, because it means we’ve taken a lot of chances. For fans, xG is a good reflection of how a game is going, something other stats such as possession, shots on goal, and duels won perhaps don’t always do quite so well.”

 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by tcuc3e

[Miruic]

23 minutes ago, Random Task said:

A penalty is 0.8 xG and we’ve faced 2 this season so our non penalty xGA is 0.36 - best in the league as far as I can work out. 
 

Basically the standard of chances teams are creating against us would see us concede one every 3 games at the moment. 

That’s exactly what I was thinking. The two penalties skew the numbers somewhat for goals against. 

[McRightSide]

xG counts all players as equal

 

They never factor in Paterson's deadly pea rollers

[0742]

5 minutes ago, tcuc3e said:

 

Yes. Analytics has transformed American sports. UK sports have been a bit slower, but are catching up. Still some way to go, as revealed by some of the comments in this thread

 

Couple of write ups about xG from 2017 here: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/mar/30/expected-goals-big-football-data-leicester-city-norwich

 

https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/no-seriously-what-heck-expected-goals-xg

 

Simon Rolfes, Bayern Leverkusen’s Sporting Director: “We always look at our xG as it provides good feedback on how our attacking play is developing. Basically, it’s good for us to have a high xG in comparison to our opponents, because it means we’ve taken a lot of chances. For fans, xG is a good reflection of how a game is going, something other stats such as possession, shots on goal, and duels won perhaps don’t always do quite so well.”

 

 

 

 

I did this course a while back, found it very interesting and well worth the fee to do all of the courses in the programme too!

 

https://www.coursera.org/specializations/sports-analytics?

 

[CircleSeven]

I can see how it makes sense to look at these stats. It’s about looking at deficiencies in your game that are sometimes masked by results so that you can improve your chances of winning over the long term. If you have more good chances over the long term you will get more goals. We beat Rotherham 2-0, which was great. But a similar performance against a different team could result in a draw or a loss.
 

That doesn’t mean the win and the points against Rotherham weren’t brilliant, just that the coaching staff might want to work on things that give us more chances of scoring more frequently so we are less reliant on say a penalty save or a goalkeeping howler. 
 

[flash]

xG/xGA have there place but only as an holistic assessment with the eye test telling you more. 
 

Ultimately we know as the xG/xGA has indicated that we’re not firing on all cylinders just yet but we’ve been solid and nicked goals when needed. 

 

Id expect our xGA to be very good if we can keep our back line fit. I’d like to think that once the likes of Shodipo/Windass/Theo start playing that our xG will vastly improve!