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“Relegation Candidates”


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30 minutes ago, fudge27 said:

Work with a Sunderland fan. 

 

He seems to think they'll romp the league and that we are in for a shock and will struggle. 

 

Hope we are under estimated and we have shades of the Megson team when we get fans from the teams we beat coming on saying how we bullied them and our team was full of cvnts 

 

I love the 'you're in for a shock' brigade.

 

Like we haven't been in League 1 twice in recent memory.

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Apologies if already mentioned but the  totally football league show podcast is a fairly decent listen with Adrian clarke plus Sam parkin and the preview show has been on. We were first up and they think just outside the play offs. All were surprised that we were 3rd favorites, seems like not many are thinking we will challenge for automatic.

 

Adrian Clarke very complimentary about Darren Moore.

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6 minutes ago, new zealand owl said:

Apologies if already mentioned but the  totally football league show podcast is a fairly decent listen with Adrian clarke plus Sam parkin and the preview show has been on. We were first up and they think just outside the play offs. All were surprised that we were 3rd favorites, seems like not many are thinking we will challenge for automatic.

 

Adrian Clarke very complimentary about Darren Moore.

Tbf, I wouldn't have us down as one of the favs for automatic. 

 

You've got the hangover of relegation which can always take its toll and the fact we've added nine new additions to the squad. It may take some time for it to gel and come together. 

 

Just listened to the Not the Top 20 podcast and they were less than complimentary. 

 

Suggested nearly all our signings are players on the decline, which I don't entirely agree with. Jack Hunt had offers from Championship sides and Lewis Wing did pretty well for Rotherham last season, so much so they wanted him back. Regarding Wing, one of the presenters was really critical of him, suggesting he isn't that good of a player and has a half decent right peg. 

 

They made the point that it is always going to be difficult to take us too seriously when you've got this owner in charge and I can't exactly disagree with that. 

 

Still - I think we are potentially better than what they were saying. 

 

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11 minutes ago, owlinexile said:

 

I love the 'you're in for a shock' brigade.

 

Like we haven't been in League 1 twice in recent memory.

Sunderland have made three signings in total, lost some of their best players and have that Hobbit, Lee Johnson, in charge. 

 

I would put them behind the likes of Ipswich and a few others as favs to "romp" away with the division. 

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3 minutes ago, SiJ said:

Tbf, I wouldn't have us down as one of the favs for automatic. 

 

You've got the hangover of relegation which can always take its toll and the fact we've added nine new additions to the squad. It may take some time for it to gel and come together. 

 

Just listened to the Not the Top 20 podcast and they were less than complimentary. 

 

Suggested nearly all our signings are players on the decline, which I don't entirely agree with. Jack Hunt had offers from Championship sides and Lewis Wing did pretty well for Rotherham last season, so much so they wanted him back. Regarding Wing, one of the presenters was really critical of him, suggesting he isn't that good of a player and has a half decent right peg. 

 

They made the point that it is always going to be difficult to take us too seriously when you've got this owner in charge and I can't exactly disagree with that. 

 

Still - I think we are potentially better than what they were saying. 

 

 

I'm not sure you could argue that ANY of our signings are players on the decline.  Players with flaws or whose careers have stalled, certainly.  We are skint and in League 1, after all - that's what you have to work with.  But not on the decline.

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4 minutes ago, owlinexile said:

 

I'm not sure you could argue that ANY of our signings are players on the decline.  Players with flaws or whose careers have stalled, certainly.  We are skint and in League 1, after all - that's what you have to work with.  But not on the decline.

I thought it was a bit of an overly harsh assessment. This same bloke was also bemoaning the fact we had lost a loads of players; players who were by and large on the decline, certainly for us. 

 

We needed a reset and that is what we have done. I think the biggest issue will be trying to bring it all together and whether we can do so in sufficient time. 

 

Would be fantastic to have a good season and stick the proverbial two fingers up at some of these so-called experts, but we will see. 

 

It's going to be a tough season either way and I'm still a bit concerned about a potential lack of goals. 

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Iorfa is back, Luongo is back. Still got all our best players,not sold the lot and replaced them with the u23s like most were predicting. Signed players that would be good enough for the championship let alone League One.

 

But because Ipswich have oh great master guru Paul Cook and have signed about 10 players ( most of which are no better/if at all better than what we have signed and I would be swapping none of them for the likes of Bannan, Iorfa or Windass.) and its all Ipswich this and Ipswich that. Didn't do to good in the league last season did they.?

 

Put it this way and I can guarantee this.  If we ain't in the promotion race by about December time. Chansiri is sacking Moore.

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1 hour ago, fudge27 said:

Work with a Sunderland fan. 

 

He seems to think they'll romp the league and that we are in for a shock and will struggle. 

 

Hope we are under estimated and we have shades of the Megson team when we get fans from the teams we beat coming on saying how we bullied them and our team was full of cvnts 

That Sunderland fan sounds deluded considering how they have bottled their last 3 attempts at getting out of this league. 

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To illustrate what I'm saying about expectations - let's look at the squads of Ipswich (7/1) and Sunderland (7/1), the only two teams rated ahead of us (8/1) with the bookies for the title and the leagues where each player in the squad has played the majority of their career. Players in bold have spent a reasonable amount of their career as a first choice player in a Championship team or equivalent/higher league.

 

SWFC

GK - Wildsmith (age 25 - Championship - 64 apps)

GK - Peacock-Farrell (24 - Championship - 40 apps)

DF - Palmer (age 29 - Championship - 242 apps)

DF - Hunt (age 30 - Championship - 246 apps)

DF - Hutchinson (31 - Championship - 174 apps)

DF - Iorfa (age 26 - Championship - 164 apps)

DF - Dunkley (age 29 - Conference - 92 apps [+ 83 in League One])

DF - Brown (age 22 - Championship - 28 apps)

MF - Bannan (age 31 - Championship - 291 apps [+ 86 in Prem])

MF - Luongo (age 28 - Championship - 190 apps)

MF - Wing (age 26 - Championship - 100 apps)

MF - Adeniran (age 22 - Championship - 22 apps)

MF - Hunt (age 21 - Championship - 9 apps)

MF - Marvin Johnson* (age 30 - Conference - 108 apps/Championship - 107 apps) *assuming he signs

AM - Shodipo (age 24 - League One - 45 apps)

AM - Dele-Bashiru (age 20 - Championship - 8 apps)

AM - Green (age 23 - Championship - 68 apps)

AM - Corbeanu (age 19 - Prem U23)

FW - Adedoyin (age 20 - Prem U23)

FW - Kamberi (age 26 - Scottish Prem - 84 apps)

FW - Windass (age 27 - Championship - 104 apps)

FW - Paterson (age 25 - Championship - 111 apps/Scottish Prem 108 apps)

 

Ipswich Town

GK - Holy (age 29 - League One - 159 apps)

GK - Hladky (age 30 - Czech Prem - 73 apps)

DF - Woolfenden (age 22 - League One - 56 apps)

DF - Donacien (age 27 - League Two - 142 apps)

DF - Ndaba (age 21 - Scottish Championship - 13 apps)

DF - Penney (age 23 - Championship - 28 apps)

DF - Edmundson (age 23 - League Two - 71 apps)

DF - Kenlock (age 24 - Championship - 55 apps)

DF - Nsiala (age 29 - League One - 107 apps)

DF - Vincent-Young (age 25 - League Two - 96 apps)

MF - Nolan (age 29 - Conference - 159 apps / League One - 108 apps)

MF - Downes (age 22 - League One - 53 apps)

MF - El Mizouni (age 20 - League Two - 21 apps)

MF - Dobra (age 20 - League One - 20 apps)

MF - Burns (age 26 - League One - 181 apps)

MF - Evans (age 27 - Championship - 120 apps / League One - 102 apps)

MF - Fraser (age 26 - League One - 116 apps)

MF - Harper (age 21 - Championship - 44 apps)

FW - Bonne (age 25 - Conference - 90 apps / Champ - 67 apps / L1 - 70 apps)

FW - Chaplin (age 24 - Conference - 78 apps / Championship - 78 apps)

FW - Pigott (age 27 - League One - 167 apps)

FW - Jackson (age 27 - League Two - 64 apps / League One - 57 apps)

FW - Norwood (age 30 - Conference - 307 apps)

 

Sunderland

GK - Burge (age 28 - League One - 172 apps)

GK - Patterson (age 21 - Prem U23 D2)

DF - Flanagan (age 29 - League One - 127 apps)

DF - Wright (age 29 - League One - 141 apps / Championship - 128 apps)

DF - Willis (age 26 - League One - 176 apps)

DF - Doyle (age 17 - Prem U23 - 12 apps)

DF - Xhemajli (age 23 - Swiss Super League - 40 apps)

DF - Hume (age 22 - League One - 62 apps)

DF - Younger (age 21 - League of Ireland - 2 apps)

MF - Evans (age 31 - Championship - 245 apps)

MF - Embleton (age 22 - League One - 30 apps)

MF - Gooch (age 25 - League One - 127 apps)

MF - O'Nien (age 26 - League One - 110 apps / League Two - 101 apps)

MF - Winchester (age 28 - League Two - 162 apps / League One - 140 apps)

MF - Pritchard (age 28 - Championship - 125 apps [& 48 Prem])

MF - Diamond (age 21 - Conference - 27 apps)

MF - Hawkes (age 22 - Conference - 59 apps)

MF - McGeady (age 35 - Scottish Prem - 185 apps / Championship - 92 apps)

FW - O'Brien (age 27 - League One - 127 apps / Championship - 92 apps)

FW - Stewart (age 25 - Scottish Prem - 73 apps)

FW - Grigg (age 30 - League One - 315 apps)

 

Admittedly you would rather have a team of promising young players on the way up than ageing ones on the way down, but none of our squad are older than 31, save for Hutchinson who turned 32 today. Of Sunderland's 6 players with similar experience, McGeady is 35 and Pritchard is a crock. Their defence is very young and inexperienced. Ipswich have one player that has played 100 Championship games.

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I just realised I missed Myers out from our squad (age 25 - Championship - 57 apps). 11 of our squad have played more Championship games than he has. If Ipswich had signed him he'd be their 4th most experienced player at that level.

 

Sod it, I've just convinced myself to lump on the remaining £20 in my betting account on HMS Pîss the League.

 

 

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And to illustrate the point about players going down a level to a lower league, here are a few Wednesday players records and how much better they did at a lower level.

 

David Hirst

For SWFC in Premier League/Old Division One:

223 starts + 31 sub; 82 goals & 25 assists* 

For SWFC in old Division Two

39 starts + 2 sub; 24 goals & 13 assists

*info for assists from about 30 games from 80s missing

 

John Sheridan

For SWFC in Premier League/Old Division One:

142 starts + 9 sub; 15 goals & 20 assists

For SWFC in old Division Two

45 starts + 1 sub; 10 goals & 10 assists

 

Terry Curran

For SWFC in Division Two

70 starts + 2 sub; 12 goals

For SWFC in Division Three

52 starts + 1 sub; 23 goals

 

Gary Madine

For SWFC in Division Two

11 starts + 30 sub; 3 goals, 2 assists

For SWFC in Division Three

56 starts + 4 sub; 23 goals, 9 assists

 

Steve MacLean

For SWFC in Division Two

24 starts + 23 sub; 14 goals, 4 assists

For SWFC in Division Three

36 starts + 1 sub; 19 goals, 14 assists

 

If we see a similar increase in output from say Windass (9 goals, 5 assists) and Bannan (2 goals, 5 assists) last season then Windass should be hitting 18 goals and Bannan double figures for assists.

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7 hours ago, morganowl said:

if we sign a 20 goal a season striker there is every reason we should be top 6 minimum .  for 1st time in years i have belief in our manager and recruitment . our fans im sure will back us big time. the stale horrible atmosphere is gone 

Ye gods!

 

For the umpteenth bleeding time, where is this 20 goal a season striker coming from?

20 goal a season strikers cost money, they don't go for free and they don't go on loan. It may have escaped your (and others on here) attention but we are embargoed and can only sign freebies or loanees.

 

That means no recognised 20 goal a season striker, it's going to have to be a punt on unearthing a hidden gem or playing in a way that goals come from across the entire team. Alternatively the strategy has to be stabilise this season and next season, hopefully embargo free we can get the 20 goal man.

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6 hours ago, Sefton owl said:

Bizzare considering the article they published a few days ago about Darren Moore and the certain ‘pull’ he has and the respect he has amongst the footballing community. 

Different reporter though, Louise Taylor. Be interesting to see who is closer to the truth.

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2 hours ago, TommyCraig said:

Aye, they are well off on this one. Just a page filler article. Bookies have us 3rd favourites for promotion. 

 

2 hours ago, new zealand owl said:

Apologies if already mentioned but the  totally football league show podcast is a fairly decent listen with Adrian clarke plus Sam parkin and the preview show has been on. We were first up and they think just outside the play offs. All were surprised that we were 3rd favorites, seems like not many are thinking we will challenge for automatic.

 

Adrian Clarke very complimentary about Darren Moore.

 

2 hours ago, SiJ said:

Tbf, I wouldn't have us down as one of the favs for automatic. 

 

You've got the hangover of relegation which can always take its toll and the fact we've added nine new additions to the squad. It may take some time for it to gel and come together. 

 

Just listened to the Not the Top 20 podcast and they were less than complimentary. 

 

Suggested nearly all our signings are players on the decline, which I don't entirely agree with. Jack Hunt had offers from Championship sides and Lewis Wing did pretty well for Rotherham last season, so much so they wanted him back. Regarding Wing, one of the presenters was really critical of him, suggesting he isn't that good of a player and has a half decent right peg. 

 

They made the point that it is always going to be difficult to take us too seriously when you've got this owner in charge and I can't exactly disagree with that. 

 

Still - I think we are potentially better than what they were saying. 

 

Doesn't anyone on here understand the way that bookies work?

 

They base the odds on the amount of money being bet by the punters. All 3rd favourites means is that we are the 3rd most heavily backed time in the league. Given the size of our fanbase that should come as no surprise.

 

The bookies are not offering their opinion on where they think we will finish, they just manipulate the odds to ensure that they always come out ahead!

 

Why people base their opinions on the odds of the bookies is just totally bewildering because it has nothing whatsoever to do with our chances!

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29 minutes ago, Utah Owl said:

 

 

Doesn't anyone on here understand the way that bookies work?

 

They base the odds on the amount of money being bet by the punters. All 3rd favourites means is that we are the 3rd most heavily backed time in the league. Given the size of our fanbase that should come as no surprise.

 

The bookies are not offering their opinion on where they think we will finish, they just manipulate the odds to ensure that they always come out ahead!

 

Why people base their opinions on the odds of the bookies is just totally bewildering because it has nothing whatsoever to do with our chances!

And yet they are usually pretty accurate aren't they, bookies. Lots of footy punters bet over all leagues too not just their own team. 

3rd faves means a playoff place finish and I don't think we'll be far off that. 

I think the Guardian reporter was well off with this piece, don't need you to educate me on betting practices thank you. 

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19 minutes ago, TommyCraig said:

And yet they are usually pretty accurate aren't they, bookies. Lots of footy punters bet over all leagues too not just their own team. 

3rd faves means a playoff place finish and I don't think we'll be far off that. 

I think the Guardian reporter was well off with this piece, don't need you to educate me on betting practices thank you. 

The only thing bookies are accurate at is making money!

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3 hours ago, SiJ said:

Tbf, I wouldn't have us down as one of the favs for automatic. 

 

You've got the hangover of relegation which can always take its toll and the fact we've added nine new additions to the squad. It may take some time for it to gel and come together. 

 

Just listened to the Not the Top 20 podcast and they were less than complimentary. 

 

Suggested nearly all our signings are players on the decline, which I don't entirely agree with. Jack Hunt had offers from Championship sides and Lewis Wing did pretty well for Rotherham last season, so much so they wanted him back. Regarding Wing, one of the presenters was really critical of him, suggesting he isn't that good of a player and has a half decent right peg. 

 

They made the point that it is always going to be difficult to take us too seriously when you've got this owner in charge and I can't exactly disagree with that. 

 

Still - I think we are potentially better than what they were saying. 

 

 

Just given it a listen. Some interesting takes (I agree on Sam Vokes being way over-hyped) but I do think they are way off with us. They rate Rotherham as favourites 'decent Championship team last season' neglecting that they got 5 points less than us. That's even with us suffering Tony blōōdy Pulis for 10 games. 

 

They cite Wing and Peacock-Farrell as players on the way down but mention Matt Penney as one of the good signings that Ipswich have made. They rave about Ipswich signing a stand-out keeper in League One, but slate Peacock-Farrell for a few dodgy games for Leeds as a 20-year old in the Championship. Also I think people on the outside who didn't watch us regularly will think we'll miss Lees, Harris, Rhodes, Borner et al more than we actually will. 

 

Also, I think a few of the pundits are putting too much into the 'off-field turmoil'/'bad chairman' angle. It is true. But 70% of the clubs in the Football League have dodgy Chairmen and off-field turmoil. As long as he can pay the bills and steps back and lets Darren Moore run the football we'll be fine. It's not like Sunderland, Ipswich, et al have brilliant Chairman and are stable well-run teams. Almost every team chasing promotion in the league seems to have a new(ish) manager. The teams that are stable and well run like Lincoln are trying to compete with a fraction of our budget.

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