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Panenka Penalties


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Aguero the latest one to fluff one yesterday.

 

Feels like the conversion rate on them is so bad. Surely it's better to smash it down the middle and hope the keeper parries it out front if he does get a hand to it?

 

Reyt annoying, give me a Pressman/Weaver twatfactory of a pen anyday.

Edited by CalmJimmers
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24 minutes ago, CalmJimmers said:

Aguero the latest one to fluff one yesterday.

 

Feels like the conversion rate on them is so bad. Surely it's better to smash it down the middle and hope the keeper parries it out front if he does get a hand to it?

 

Reyt annoying, give me a Pressman/Weaver twatfactory of a pen anyday.

You won't get Harry Kane doing that!

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Statistically you should always smash it down the middle, but there is some bias against it because if the goalie stands still and blocks it, or you sky it, you look a bit silly. But technically you did make the right decision. 

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3 hours ago, flo said:

Statistically you should always smash it down the middle, but there is some bias against it because if the goalie stands still and blocks it, or you sky it, you look a bit silly. But technically you did make the right decision. 

that is interesting, I thought to one of the sides would be better?

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20 minutes ago, Ellis Rimmer said:

that is interesting, I thought to one of the sides would be better?

Yeah I can remember reading something where an economist did a huge amount of research on penalties. Apparently the goalie is usually more likely to dive to his favoured foot side as well for what it's worth. 

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2 minutes ago, flo said:

Yeah I can remember reading something where an economist did a huge amount of research on penalties. Apparently the goalie is usually more likely to dive to his favoured foot side as well for what it's worth. 

That's very interesting, I suppose if you're taking a one of penalty that is the most likely to work then however if it's a regular penalty taker they wouldn't be able to use that tactic as the keeper would be likely to know

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4 minutes ago, Ellis Rimmer said:

That's very interesting, I suppose if you're taking a one of penalty that is the most likely to work then however if it's a regular penalty taker they wouldn't be able to use that tactic as the keeper would be likely to know

I found what I read. A bit boring though. 

They studied shots taken and goals scored as a percentage of shots taken in the French and Italian domestic leagues from 1997 to 2000

What does the data from the paper tell us about the shot-taker?

 

I. His least preferred direction to hit the ball in was the middle (17%). He preferred hitting the ball towards the left side of the goal (45%) or the right (38%).

II. Taking a shot in the middle had the highest pay-off (81% success rate) as against hitting it on the right (70% success rate) or left (76.7% success rate).

 

In another research paper, Action Bias Among Elite Soccer Goalkeepers: The Case Of Penalty Kicks, Michael Bar-Eli, Ofer H. Azar, Ilana Ritov, Yael Keidar-Levin and Galit Schein find that goalkeepers tend to jump left or right to defend their goal though they are, in reality, more likely to obstruct the course of the ball and save the penalty if they stay near the centre of the net.

 

Even though Levitt et al correctly point out, “We cannot reject that players optimally choose strategies conditional on the opponent’s behaviour", it is still baffling that shot-takers and goalkeepers do not choose the middle path more frequently, despite it giving both of them a higher chance of success.

The reason, though, is simple. Human beings prefer action to inaction, a phenomenon psychologists often refer to as the action bias. 

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10 hours ago, CalmJimmers said:

Aguero the latest one to fluff one yesterday.

 

Feels like the conversion rate on them is so bad. Surely it's better to smash it down the middle and hope the keeper parries it out front if he does get a hand to it?

 

Reyt annoying, give me a Pressman/Weaver twatfactory of a pen anyday.

 

twatfactory....reyt film 

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6 hours ago, flo said:

Statistically you should always smash it down the middle, but there is some bias against it because if the goalie stands still and blocks it, or you sky it, you look a bit silly. But technically you did make the right decision. 

 

Ray Stewart West Ham, virtually ran from the half way line and whacked the bàstard as hard as he could.

 

Rarely missed.

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If I'm a keeper, do I want the lollipop legged winger to prance up and dink one that I could blow away like a candle if I stood still?

 

Or would I like to be in the way of a ball smashed back to the middle ages by a goalkeeper with legs the width of Tinsley Towers?

 

Even if it misses it might hit a spectator which might be funny.

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20 hours ago, scram said:

Deeney - just smacks the ball as hard as he can invariably down the middle of the goal - great success rate 

 

Le Tiissier took loads, picked his spot, only ever missed 1. 

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On 09/05/2021 at 13:10, CalmJimmers said:

Aguero the latest one to fluff one yesterday.

 

Feels like the conversion rate on them is so bad. Surely it's better to smash it down the middle and hope the keeper parries it out front if he does get a hand to it?

 

Reyt annoying, give me a Pressman/Weaver twatfactory of a pen anyday.

 

Fine if you are 4-0 up and cruising. Not great if you are only 1 up playing against decent, in-form opposition. 

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I feel like if the word ‘Panenka’ was replaced by ‘daft chip penalty’ then less would try it... even though it was probably quite innovative when first done. 
 

Sergio Ramos has done loads of them. The keepers know it and still don’t save them. 
 

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