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Thompson, Bullen and Haslam have Covid


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Just a small point on mutations—apologies if it’s already been brought up. The virus mutates within a host, so allowing it to reproduce unchecked (i.e. “herd immunity”) massively increases the chance of mutations that would potentially render vaccines ineffective.

 

The best long term strategy would have been eradication, but I doubt the government will have the stomach for that now (or in fact the logistical capability, if past performance is anything to go by).   

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51 minutes ago, Maddogbob said:

Yeah Australia have record 908 deaths for the whole thing (well that was a few days ago when I looked). 

Quite.

 

And yes, Australia is nowhere nearly as densely populated and so forth, but still.

 

Where are we in terms of overall deaths? Second? Third? 

 

We have persistently not taken this thing serious enough and it continually comes back to bite us on the arse.

 

Prior to Xmas, a new strand of the virus pretty much put the whole of the South into Tier 4. It was patently obvious what was going to happen and yet this government still gave the greenlight for millions of people to gather and celebrate Xmas together.

 

Currently, we are seeing case totals and hospital admissions higher than what we saw back in March. We haven't even seen the full impact of Xmas yet.

 

It's ok though, as Boris says he Hope's things will be better by April.

 

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1 hour ago, SiJ said:

Where are we in terms of overall deaths? Second? Third? 

5th in Europe per capita...as it should be measured.

For instance you are safer here than in Belgium.

 

Not good whatever but if making comparisons it would be more accurate to compare like for like.

It's a bit disingenuous to compare, the UK with New Zealand or Australia.

 

Someone mentioned Sweden but again that is not a comparable country with UK.

 

If you compare it with it's neighbours, Norway and Denmark, it is doing far worse and of course Norway and Denmark had a lockdown in place. The economy is faring no better in Sweden than either the other two.

Sweden -pandemic response

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32750-1/fulltext

 

 

Of all the countries in Europe, Germany stands out above all others but they are now having probs, struggling with vaccine numbers and is in talks with Russia to produce theirs, as is France who have only vaccinated 70,000 againsts the UK's 2M

 

Germany struggles

https://www.ft.com/content/2ec52089-b9e3-4ad2-bb23-f3a4a09eccbe

 

Even China having probs..

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/china-locks-down-part-of-province-outside-beijing-as-coronavirus-cases-spike.html

 

The government have messed up alright.

And so have the rest of Europe's governments. Italy, Spain, France all comparable with us are all doing similar before this new variant hit the UK.

We have yet to see if Europe spikes again..

 

Compared to comparable countries the outcomes have been pretty similar..

A mighty foookup, but realistically it's difficult to see how it could have been prevented.

Full strict lockdown, Chinese style?

Would that work in Europe? Many in the UK don't even believe covid exists..anti lockdown demos in London regularly.

 

Tracy on facebook has a lot to answer for.🤨

 

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22 minutes ago, sherlyegg said:

5th in Europe per capita...as it should be measured.

For instance you are safer here than in Belgium.

 

Not good whatever but if making comparisons it would be more accurate to compare like for like.

It's a bit disingenuous to compare, the UK with New Zealand or Australia.

 

Someone mentioned Sweden but again that is not a comparable country with UK.

 

If you compare it with it's neighbours, Norway and Denmark, it is doing far worse and of course Norway and Denmark had a lockdown in place. The economy is faring no better in Sweden than either the other two.

Sweden -pandemic response

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32750-1/fulltext

 

 

Of all the countries in Europe, Germany stands out above all others but they are now having probs, struggling with vaccine numbers and is in talks with Russia to produce theirs, as is France who have only vaccinated 70,000 againsts the UK's 2M

 

Germany struggles

https://www.ft.com/content/2ec52089-b9e3-4ad2-bb23-f3a4a09eccbe

 

Even China having probs..

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/china-locks-down-part-of-province-outside-beijing-as-coronavirus-cases-spike.html

 

The government have messed up alright.

And so have the rest of Europe's governments. Italy, Spain, France all comparable with us are all doing similar before this new variant hit the UK.

We have yet to see if Europe spikes again..

 

Compared to comparable countries the outcomes have been pretty similar..

A mighty foookup, but realistically it's difficult to see how it could have been prevented.

Full strict lockdown, Chinese style?

Would that work in Europe? Many in the UK don't even believe covid exists..anti lockdown demos in London regularly.

 

Tracy on facebook has a lot to answer for.🤨

 

Surely if we want to compare various countries then the main things would be age distribution and also the weight of people. 
 

This is a disease which has a pretty low mortality for those in reasonable health and under age 60. The U.K. is one of the most obese countries in Europe and we also have an ageing population, as do a lot of European and Asian countries.

 

So all else being equal, mortality/hospitalisations/serious illness here is going to be higher than some other places.

 

Lockdowns don’t work.. not because the theory of eliminating social contact isn’t sound, but the application becomes impossible. The way NZ did it was to react very very early such that there wasn’t really much community transmission at all when they locked down.. that plus closing the borders ensured they could then fully reopen because the virus isn’t circulating there.

 

China obviously had a problem with it initially, then had a harsh lockdown enforced by the military which got rid of community transmission (if you believe their numbers).

 

Personally I’d rather we did that than what we’ve been doing. Semi lockdown is the worst because there’s no end to it as the virus doesn’t go anywhere. It’s like being at sea treading water  

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2 hours ago, SiJ said:

Quite.

 

And yes, Australia is nowhere nearly as densely populated and so forth, but still.

 

 

It's a bit misleading to say Australia is not as densely populated as the UK - okay if you take the country as a whole there is an enormous desert in the middle where virtually nobody lives. But the population is clustered together, mainly on the coast and to the south and east. Australia has 5 cities with a population of over 1 million. The UK has just two. Okay, I accept the average Australian house is larger than the UK and there aren't rows and rows of terraced houses, but you still have significant numbers of people living in close proximity, plus lots of tourists, business links, foreign university students, etc.

 

And anyway, when you move on from Australia, you can consider the other countries who have dealt with the pandemic well. People try and raise fears that a democracy like the UK wouldn't accept a 'China-style' lockdown, but Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all democracies that are violently opposed to 'China-style' policies and their outlook on the world and they have handled it just fine.

 

We have a massive advantage over continental Europe in that there are no land borders with the UK. It is one we have squandered. I was absolutely amazed when I returned to the UK recently and found there are absolutely no checks on people coming in to the country. Fill out an online form, waltz through the electronic passport gate and then go forth and spread the virus. No temperature check, no mandatory app to download, no way of knowing if people are self-isolating. How can we spend over £12bn on a track and trace system and it not occur to think of stemming the flow of the hundreds of new people with the virus arriving every day?

 

Every country that has kept their economy running has some sort of system like this in place - we should have learned and follow what other countries have done.

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It's funny that we went from "The Virus knows no borders" when Italy was going through a bad time in the beginning to "No Johnny Foreigners should be allowed in".

 

That's politics for you.

 

 

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11 hours ago, Salmonbones said:

 

I'm not going to pretend I have a vast knowledge - I think Flu and Covid aren't the same though.    They have similar respiratory symptoms but are caused by a vastly different virus.

 

I'm comparing them simply because I think they share a similar ability to morph, year on year - hiding from the Human ability to form  antibodies.

Apologies , you are correct. Its SARS and MERS that are part of the lovely COVID family. 

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17 hours ago, nethertonowl said:

I agree how is it right that we can’t travel a few miles, but it’s ok for football clubs to send a coach load of people hundreds of miles x 32 teams and stay overnight. Money talks football don’t give a poo! 

It's not just football. The so called half assed lockdown has been the same since March last year. 

80% of the construction industry has been still criss crossing the country spreading the virus since it started. 

 

How could you call it a lockdown when we were in Leeds which wasn't locked down and we had Liverpool and the mancs lads in so called lockdown working with us. 

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15 hours ago, LondonOwl313 said:

You stay at home old man if you’re scared.. let the rest of us live our lives 

Or the terminally stupid...

 

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18 hours ago, nethertonowl said:

Who is gone drive the bus now? 

Böner, I remember reading that he sometimes use to drive it for his German club haha.


"The trouble with "lessons from history" is that we usually read them best after falling flat on our chins."   

 

"Girls are simply wonderful. Just to stand on a corner and watch them go past is delightful. They don't walk. At least not what we do when we walk. I don't know how to describe it, but it's much more complex and utterly delightful. They don't move just their feet; everything moves and in different directions . . . and all of it graceful."  Starship Troopers, Amen!        

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18 hours ago, S36 OWL said:

I'm too old, overweight and unfit to play, but I could be the sponge man on Saturday if they are short on numbers. I can dig out my car sponge, bucket and firey jack. 

Waterboy07N3kl.gif 


"The trouble with "lessons from history" is that we usually read them best after falling flat on our chins."   

 

"Girls are simply wonderful. Just to stand on a corner and watch them go past is delightful. They don't walk. At least not what we do when we walk. I don't know how to describe it, but it's much more complex and utterly delightful. They don't move just their feet; everything moves and in different directions . . . and all of it graceful."  Starship Troopers, Amen!        

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15 hours ago, Halifax Owls said:

All the best to everyone. A bit of bed rest, plenty vitamin c, paracetamol a good book and we’ll see you the following weekend. 

A good book is the key to a successful lockdown. 

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12 hours ago, sherlyegg said:

5th in Europe per capita...as it should be measured.

For instance you are safer here than in Belgium.

 

Not good whatever but if making comparisons it would be more accurate to compare like for like.

It's a bit disingenuous to compare, the UK with New Zealand or Australia.

 

Someone mentioned Sweden but again that is not a comparable country with UK.

 

If you compare it with it's neighbours, Norway and Denmark, it is doing far worse and of course Norway and Denmark had a lockdown in place. The economy is faring no better in Sweden than either the other two.

Sweden -pandemic response

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32750-1/fulltext

 

 

Of all the countries in Europe, Germany stands out above all others but they are now having probs, struggling with vaccine numbers and is in talks with Russia to produce theirs, as is France who have only vaccinated 70,000 againsts the UK's 2M

 

Germany struggles

https://www.ft.com/content/2ec52089-b9e3-4ad2-bb23-f3a4a09eccbe

 

Even China having probs..

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/china-locks-down-part-of-province-outside-beijing-as-coronavirus-cases-spike.html

 

The government have messed up alright.

And so have the rest of Europe's governments. Italy, Spain, France all comparable with us are all doing similar before this new variant hit the UK.

We have yet to see if Europe spikes again..

 

Compared to comparable countries the outcomes have been pretty similar..

A mighty foookup, but realistically it's difficult to see how it could have been prevented.

Full strict lockdown, Chinese style?

Would that work in Europe? Many in the UK don't even believe covid exists..anti lockdown demos in London regularly.

 

Tracy on facebook has a lot to answer for.🤨

 

Like most people i aint a clue whats gona happen next wk next month 3 month 6 montb next year and so on. But the end date in peoples eyes are when everyone has had there vaccination plus 2 weeks who are in the top 99% at risk. Then 99% normality has to return no matter what ,though the days of people going on holiday in mass numbers are over or not for a very long time. Im preying these vaccines work or things will turn very nasty my worry is otherwise. 

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15 hours ago, LondonOwl313 said:

Surely if we want to compare various countries then the main things would be age distribution and also the weight of people. 
 

This is a disease which has a pretty low mortality for those in reasonable health and under age 60. The U.K. is one of the most obese countries in Europe and we also have an ageing population, as do a lot of European and Asian countries.

 

So all else being equal, mortality/hospitalisations/serious illness here is going to be higher than some other places.

 

Lockdowns don’t work.. not because the theory of eliminating social contact isn’t sound, but the application becomes impossible. The way NZ did it was to react very very early such that there wasn’t really much community transmission at all when they locked down.. that plus closing the borders ensured they could then fully reopen because the virus isn’t circulating there.

 

China obviously had a problem with it initially, then had a harsh lockdown enforced by the military which got rid of community transmission (if you believe their numbers).

 

Personally I’d rather we did that than what we’ve been doing. Semi lockdown is the worst because there’s no end to it as the virus doesn’t go anywhere. It’s like being at sea treading water  

Yes you do make valid points, my reply was based on the New Zealand, Sweden and Australia comparisons.

New Zealand for instance has an aging population similar to ours, while Sweden has a much younger, thus fitter population than ours, though they are performing worse than their neighbours whom have similar lockdowns to ours, with a similar age groups.

 

This isn't about deaths, callus to say..it is all about protecting the health service.

The tories of all people do not throw money about in billions for no reason

 

As no doubt many are aware, even before covid the NHS was very much struggling due to successive governments neglect..and in particularly the tories.

 

If the NHS collapses under the strain it will lead to riots, anarchy and big big shyte.

 

The government know this..

 

As a footnote, Heathrow and Gatwick have more people travel though in 7 days than the entire population of New Zealand.

New Zealand is no where near comparable.

 

And nor is Sweden, Australia etc..

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, LondonOwl313 said:

You stay at home old man if you’re scared.. let the rest of us live our lives 

i' m not scared i've had  the best part of my life, you may be lucky and get to enjoy yours ...... over 1300 died in the last 24 hours the hospitals where you live are overwhelmed  and your whinging that it impedes on your life and business ........the word cretin springs to mind but i feel thats  bigging you up 

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18 minutes ago, torryowl said:

i' m not scared i've had  the best part of my life, you may be lucky and get to enjoy yours ...... over 1300 died in the last 24 hours the hospitals where you live are overwhelmed  and your whinging that it impedes on your life and business ........the word cretin springs to mind but i feel thats  bigging you up 

Look I don’t like to hold grudges with people, I regret saying that but it was in response to you calling me ‘weak minded’ out of the blue just because you didn’t agree with my view on lockdown. Judging by people’s comments it’s clear that poking fun at people’s mental health is fair game but casual ageism during a pandemic is not.

 

You talk as if imposing a lockdown is without its costs, and that is my point. It might make overwhelming sense for someone who is over 60, gets a guaranteed pension income, doesn’t go out all that much anyway etc. Sure I can see why you’d want lockdown because it reduces your risk of getting it.

 

However, look at the state of the economy. We’re printing money like it’s going out of fashion. We’re going to be paying for this for a long time after you’re gone, it’s my generation and my children’s generation that has to pick up the tab. And in the short term it’s utter misery too.

 

i hope you appreciate the sacrifices we’re all being forced to make for your generation. Personally I think we should have a choice.. if you want to go out, go out.. if you want to stay at home, stay at home. If putting younger and future generations first makes me a cretin then so be it. I think it’s a selfish attitude to expect everyone under 40 to stay at home for something with a survival rate of 99.9% for people our age

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