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Before the brentford match I would say yes, now I would say probably not. If we get less than 4 points out of our next 2 games I think we will go down.

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I had some blind faith when I saw the squad togetherness and a few signings coming through the door.

 

That hope has quickly disappeared. We aren't removing this gap anytime soon. This is the story every fucking season we seem to have, crushing disappointment after another. I'll end up zoning out for half the season with the odd scowl when dad texts me the score, take a minute to get over it and worry about something else. Nothing club. 

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No, but I thought that when the  - 12 was announced. 

 

You can be as positive as you like, but that will weight you down all season and personally as a club, we don't have the mentality to get ourselves out of it. 

 

I've completely lost all interest in the club tbh. 

Edited by Maddogbob
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On 19/10/2020 at 07:56, HOOTIE AND THE poo TU said:

I'm looking way past staying up

 

I think we can be a force in this division

What are you drinking? Please share, I need it after watching this shower of #!#!

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On 19/10/2020 at 08:21, Ever the pessimist said:

I think we will get clear of the relegation zone at some point this season - but will inevitably have a bad patch (pretty much everyone does). The issues will be whether that then takes us back into the dogfight. 

 

Or, dare I say it, any further penalties for financial misdemeanours!

We are in a continuous bad patch m8.

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We might just do it by the tiniest of margins. I did think we might overcome the -12 by now, but our form even without is no where near top half.

 

We needed to fight for every point, it doesn't feel like we are. 

 

It's now 8 points to get out of the bottom 3.

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1 hour ago, Rogers said:

You don’t lose at home to Luton and stay up

Barnsley Huddersfield Blackburn Middlesbrough Swansea all lost at home to Luton last season and stayed up.  

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Not a chance after these two results. 
 

It has told me a lot about the manager and the team. With our situation we needed to get at least 4 points out of those games. We got 0.

 

We will be in League One next season.

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Leaving the manager aside, I can't see everyone being fit for long enough. We don't have the depth of squad. Then you have to address the tactics not suiting the squad, and finally the manager.

Now consider all that over 46 games, plus minus 4, and the answer is simple really.

NO.

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No. I’ve been consistent all along. I said before the season started, even after the first 4 games when we got 7 points. 
 

The squad isn’t good enough for mid table which we would need to be without a points deduction. We now have a number of players out injured or suspended and we have Monk as manager.

 

I can’t see how we will get out of this one unless if we are successful with our appeal.

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On 19/10/2020 at 21:42, Rev Owl said:

8 points from 5 games

72 points from 46 games

-12 = 60

Yes we can

 

On 19/10/2020 at 21:59, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

Prior to Saturday's game, that calculation was...

 

5 points from 4 games

57 points from 46 games

-12 = 45

We're doomed!

 

Except neither are a reasonable way to gauge our chances, of course.

 

That calculation now stands at...

 

8 points from 8 games

46 points from 46 games

-12 = 34

 

...and the problem is that it becomes harder to increase the average points per game with every passing match.

 

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but I noticed that Monk alluded to the next three games several times when discussing his future last night.

 

“These three games will be a big answer to the questions that you and I have."

 

With another international break following our games against Wycombe, Bournemouth and Millwall, do you think he's been given until then to get us back on track, or is he simply anticipating that this might seem a logical point for the chairman to pass his judgement?

 

I've called for patience before now as we look to bed in new players and were actually peforming well enough, but these last two games against two of our likely relegation rivals have really left us with a mountain to climb (as if it wasn't hard enough already!), and that's before we even consider just how utterly abject the performances were.

 

Below are the various permutations as to how our average points per game will look by the international break, depending on how many points we take from these three games...

 

0 points = 0.72ppg

1 = 0.81ppg

2 = 0.90ppg

3 = 1ppg

4 = 1.09ppg

5 = 1.18ppg

6 = 1.27ppg

7 = 1.36ppg

9 = 1.55ppg

 

Given that - thanks to the points deduction - 1.4 points per game is what we need to be hitting in order to all but guarantee we stay up, any major drop below that standard becomes ever more difficult to overcome as each game passes by. 

 

Let's say we pick up three points from these next three matches (and I know even that feels unlikely right now) - that would put us in a position where we'd need three wins in a row in order to be back on track for survival. Now obviously the only points tally which really matters is the one we end the season on, but we simply can't afford to give ourselves such a mountain to climb if we're realistically going to stay up.

 

These last two games have put us in a very, very difficult position, even at this early stage of the season. It's difficult to see much light at the end of the tunnel right now, isn't it?

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Just now, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

 

That calculation now stands at...

 

8 points from 8 games

46 points from 46 games

-12 = 34

 

...and the problem is that it becomes harder to increase the average points per game with every passing match.

 

Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but I noticed that Monk alluded to the next three games several times when discussing his future last night.

 

“These three games will be a big answer to the questions that you and I have."

 

With another international break following our games against Wycombe, Bournemouth and Millwall, do you think he's been given until then to get us back on track, or is he simply anticipating that this might seem a logical point for the chairman to pass his judgement?

 

I've called for patience before now as we look to bed in new players and were actually peforming well enough, but these last two games against two of our likely relegation rivals have really left us with a mountain to climb (as if it wasn't hard enough already!), and that's before we even consider just how utterly abject the performances were.

 

Below are the various permutations as to how our average points per game will look by the international break, depending on how many points we take from these three games...

 

0 points = 0.72ppg

1 = 0.81ppg

2 = 0.90ppg

3 = 1ppg

4 = 1.09ppg

5 = 1.18ppg

6 = 1.27ppg

7 = 1.36ppg

9 = 1.55ppg

 

Given that - thanks to the points deduction - 1.4 points per game is what we need to be hitting in order to all but guarantee we stay up, any major drop below that standard becomes ever more difficult to overcome as each game passes by. 

 

Let's say we pick up three points from these next three matches (and I know even that feels unlikely right now) - that would put us in a position where we'd need three wins in a row in order to be back on track for survival. Now obviously the only points tally which really matters is the one we end the season on, but we simply can't afford to give ourselves such a mountain to climb if we're realistically going to stay up.

 

These last two games have put us in a very, very difficult position, even at this early stage of the season. It's difficult to see much light at the end of the tunnel right now, isn't it?


yes very little light right now. It’s not just that we have lost the last 2 games for me, it’s who we have lost them games to.  Both teams you would expect to be down near the bottom come the end of the season. I don’t expect us to beat teams like Brentford but Luton and Rotherham we should get something from. 

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3 minutes ago, WalthamOwl said:

yes very little light right now. It’s not just that we have lost the last 2 games for me, it’s who we have lost them games to.  Both teams you would expect to be down near the bottom come the end of the season. I don’t expect us to beat teams like Brentford but Luton and Rotherham we should get something from. 

 

Exactly. These were always going to be defining games for us. Win, and we reel in a likely relegation rival; lose, and we've allowed them to open up an even wider gap on us.

 

Even if we still had the same number of points as we currently do but had beaten Rotherham and Luton (and lost to say, Cardiff and Birmingham instead), we'd most probably be in a better position in the long-run, due to reeling in our probable rivals at least.

 

Unfortunately, we've just put in two of the most embarrassingly abject performances imaginable when it really mattered. 

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