Do You Expect Us To Stay Up?

[Leaping Lannys Perm]

Logic suggest we need to finish on +50 to survive.

 

That's 54 points from 38 games at a rate of just over 1.4 points per game.

 

I haven't got time to look at our PPG since Christmas but I doubt it is even half of that.

 

With Monk in charge, history suggests that will be impossible. With another manager in charge it is still a big ask.

[Spookone]

Looking at the stats quickly we would need around 52 points to stay up.

 

1. We started on minus12, meaning we actually need 64 points

 

2. Last season, even with the good run up until Christmas, we only managed 56 points.

 

That suggests to me, we haven’t a hope in hell of staying up.

 

 

[Lincs Owl]

2 minutes ago, Spookone said:

Looking at the stats quickly we would need around 52 points to stay up.

 

1. We started on minus12, meaning we actually need 64 points

 

2. Last season, even with the good run up until Christmas, we only managed 56 points.

 

That suggests to me, we haven’t a hope in hell of staying up.

 

 

Where do you get 52 points from?   

You'd be very unlucky to go down with 52.  Think the record is 53. 

46 is sometimes enough.  A point a game.

We can still do it, but with a poor manager, terrible keeper and a toothless forward line it's a big ask.  

[gurujuan]

2 minutes ago, Lincs Owl said:

Where do you get 52 points from?   

You'd be very unlucky to go down with 52.  Think the record is 53. 

46 is sometimes enough.  A point a game.

We can still do it, but with a poor manager, terrible keeper and a toothless forward line it's a big ask.  

So a no then?

[WBridgfordowl]

Not a chance of staying up. With a very average squad, being fairly blunt in the goal scoring department, it would take a phenomenal effort to reach safety.

 

I wouldn’t fancy us to stay up without the points deduction, whilst the current manager remains in charge. Maybe someone like Pearson might give us an outside chance, but realistically, we’re heading for L1

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

2 minutes ago, Lincs Owl said:

Where do you get 52 points from?   

You'd be very unlucky to go down with 52.  Think the record is 53. 

46 is sometimes enough.  A point a game.

We can still do it, but with a poor manager, terrible keeper and a toothless forward line it's a big ask.  

 

46 is usually enough. It's the average needed for safety since the Championship began.

[Lincs Owl]

54 points in 2013 by Peterborough is the highest number of points a team has ever gone down from Championship with.   Equal with Southend who went down to 4th tier with 54.   

 

After watching the Luton and Rotherham games, we look like relegation certs.  But things can change.  Before Brentford Luton Rotherham, it was going just tickety boo.  

[matthefish2002]

I am not expecting Wednesday to stop up but it still well possible.
Only played 8 games so loads of football left to be played but the last 2 games have made me a bit pessimistic. 

[gurujuan]

Were we to average what we are averaging now, we could find ourselves nearly 20 points short With every passing game we don’t take points, that asking rate goes up The new target of 54 points from 38 games already looks beyond us. 

[Guest Grandad]

In the first 23 games of last season we averaged 1.69 points per game - the 3rd best in the division. In the second 23 games we averaged 0.73pts per game, only Hull were worse.

 

So far this season we've averaged exactly 1pt per game with 8 played. With 38 games left to play, and with a target of 58 points required over the season to give us a season end total of 46 (the average to survive in the Championship) we now need 50pts from 38 - or 1.31 per game from now until the end of the season. 

 

Over a season that would give a total of 60 points - something we've only achieved once since we qualified for the play offs

[gurujuan]

It’s not good, and it will soon require a dramatic upturn in results, an unrealistic scenario I would think

[matthefish2002]

I fancied our chances with 8 points from 5 games which was a decent return.
The loss to Brentford was acceptable, we didn't give up but they are a decent side.
The most worrying thing to me was the lack of reaction at Rotherham from the bad performance against Luton.

 

[Beauchief Owl]

It's very, very sad to be heading for probable relegation before November in a division that contains the likes of Wycombe, Barnsley, Rotherham, Coventry and a few other mediocre sides. 

[modboy]

Just got beaten by two of the worst teams in the league (after us) and now are 5 wins behind them, what an absolute farce 

Edited October 30, 2020 by modboy

[Sgt Wednesday]

I believe Luton and Rotherham will be in the bottom 5 come April, also Wycombe and Coventry.

 

I was hoping we wouldn't be in that group and that we would pull the likes of Barnsley into it.

 

Before the Luton game I thought we had a decent chance of being well away from this group.

 

The Luton game worried me, they were terrible and we just couldn't do enough to score or even create enough, plus we were looking vulnerable at the back.

 

The first 45 mins against Rotherham tells me that even without the -12 and with Monk in charge our form is relegation form.

 

With Monk remaining in charge we need a miracle, he doesn't look like he's got enough about him to keep us up.

 

With a change of manager who fancies the challenge, we might stand a chance.

 

The longer we leave it with Monk in charge the less chance we have of staying up, over to you Mr Chansiri.

 

 

 

 

[Spookone]

3 hours ago, Lincs Owl said:

Where do you get 52 points from?   

You'd be very unlucky to go down with 52.  Think the record is 53. 

46 is sometimes enough.  A point a game.

We can still do it, but with a poor manager, terrible keeper and a toothless forward line it's a big ask.  

Yes I was building in a bit of a buffer, it was 49 or 50 I think last season so allowed a couple of extra points 

[FreshOwl]

We are completely screwed. Going by what we need, and looking at our form over the last 12 months, it would honestly take a minor miracle 

[thewookieisdown]

3 hours ago, matthefish2002 said:

I fancied our chances with 8 points from 5 games which was a decent return.
The loss to Brentford was acceptable, we didn't give up but they are a decent side.
The most worrying thing to me was the lack of reaction at Rotherham from the bad performance against Luton.

 

Completely agree. After five games, I felt pretty relaxed. Points per game was more than adequate. And the concerns were about not winning or going way too close from a strong position, and chance creation.

 

That's only three games ago, and one one those was, as you say, against a side we all know is far better than us.

 

This now look like the post-Christmas period, when we went  from being a top six (top three!) side to an absolute shambles almost overnight. 

 

Not good.

 

 

[Pressman 1]

In a word no 

[The Night-Owl]

We ain't got a chance whilst Monk's still in charge. By the time he's booted out it will most probably be too late. DC's the most to blame for hiring Monk in the first place. Crazy how Monk wasn't axed last season. Our record since last Christmas with Monk is atrocious and relegation form even without a points deduction. It's nailed on we're going down and DC still buries his head in the sand.