What A Successful Season Might Look Like...

[Blue and white]

On 04/10/2020 at 01:16, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

I don't know why I bother!

 

 

I agree with you, though - I'm just trying to highlight what we're up against and that we could well be in the bottom three for the majority of the season, not because we're not on track to achieve that aim, but simply because our points deduction is crippling us.

We're up against a numpty of a manager and a doughnut of an owner.

[gurujuan]

Are we not repeating the same mistakes as previously? Our short term approach to getting out of this division has been much criticised, but are we not guilty of a similar approach to stay in it? 
I certainly expected more than to just aim for 21st place. What about establishing a footballing philosophy, and a way of playing that could take the club forward. About building something sustainable and laying the foundations for future seasons. Honestly, I see no plan.

 

[deano]

3 minutes ago, gurujuan said:

Are we not repeating the same mistakes as previously? Our short term approach to getting out of this division has been much criticised, but are we not guilty of a similar approach to stay in it? 
I certainly expected more than to just aim for 21st place. What about establishing a footballing philosophy, and a way of playing that could take the club forward. About building something sustainable and laying the foundations for future seasons. Honestly, I see no plan.

 

I agree, it's a question for Chansiri, I would like someone to ask the chairman this tomorrow.

[adelphi1867]

On 03/10/2020 at 13:06, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

With some of the comments on here in recent weeks about when we should expect to be out of the bottom three, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at what the implications of our points deduction could be for our prospects this season.

 

The graph below deals with average points tallies and so consequently represents progress as linear (which it obviously isn't), but as a rough guide to the average progress we'd need in order to beat the drop with varying degrees of comfort, hopefully it helps...

 

 

Games are plotted along the horizontal axis and points tallies are on the vertical.

 

The red 'average survival' line shows the average number of points needed to avoid relegation since the Championship was rebranded 16 years ago, whilst all the other lines show how various average points per game tallies would see Wednesday progress in relation to that line, given our points deduction.

 

A few things which stand out:

 

• Although 1.3 points per game would be enough to keep us up in an average Championship season, we wouldn't escape the bottom three until game 41, which would certainly test the nerves of Wednesdayites everywhere! If the bar is raised much higher than average at the bottom of the division this season, then we'd be in real trouble.

 

• 1.4 points per game would see us stay up in all but the most extreme of Championship seasons, finishing six points above the average relegation mark, and yet we'd still be in the bottom three until game 30.

 

• What's really quite telling is that even with the form needed to reach the playoffs in an average season, we'd be in the bottom three until game 22, which is our final game of this calendar year.

 

Looking at our squad, I can't imagine too many would back us to maintain top-six form over the season, so we may have to accept that it could take until the second half, final third or even later in the season before we finally claw ourselves out of the bottom three.

 

If that proves to be the case, then our club is going to need level heads, among both the playing squad and the fanbase. It's going to do us no favours if we all start getting the jitters because our heads are still below water in the new year - that may well be the case, and that may well be what an ultimately successful season looks like this time around.

It's a pity we play football on a grass field and not a spread sheet innit.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

37 minutes ago, adelphi1867 said:

It's a pity we play football on a grass field and not a spread sheet innit.

 

And the end result of all the football played on a field is that the results will be recorded on a spreadsheet.

 

It's just a way of looking at where we might need to be by the end of the season. 

 

Probably not worth getting uptight about.

[matthefish2002]

Still think odds are we will be relegated.
If you are relaying on getting goals from Pens and Own goals then you are in trouble.
Also we need a more reliable goalkeeper.
Bet last night makes me think we are still in with a fighting chance.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

1 hour ago, gurujuan said:

Are we not repeating the same mistakes as previously? Our short term approach to getting out of this division has been much criticised, but are we not guilty of a similar approach to stay in it? 
I certainly expected more than to just aim for 21st place. What about establishing a footballing philosophy, and a way of playing that could take the club forward. About building something sustainable and laying the foundations for future seasons. Honestly, I see no plan.

 

We're firefighting as a result of our previous largesse, aren't we?

 

In an ideal world, we'd see a long-term vision taking shape; in reality, the chairman has put the club in such a sh*t position that we simply have to stay up this season and go from there.

 

If we make 21st this season with the squad we have, I'll take it.

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

1 minute ago, matthefish2002 said:

Still think odds are we will be relegated.
If you are relaying on getting goals from Pens and Own goals then you are in trouble.
Also we need a more reliable goalkeeper.
Bet last night makes me think we are still in with a fighting chance.

 

Yep. 

 

If I were a betting man, I'd still back us to go down.

 

I just don't think our squad is strong enough over the course of a season, and those previous three games showed a worrying fragility and lack of fight.

[gurujuan]

37 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

We're firefighting as a result of our previous largesse, aren't we?

 

In an ideal world, we'd see a long-term vision taking shape; in reality, the chairman has put the club in such a sh*t position that we simply have to stay up this season and go from there.

 

If we make 21st this season with the squad we have, I'll take it.

True, but we’ll be in a similar position, waiting for the players we’ve signed this time around, who clearly aren’t good enough to progress us, to run their contracts down, and so it goes on. 
Wouldn’t be so bad if we were progressing our development teams, but we’ve gone backwards there as well

[Guest Andy W]

The kicker here is the losses before Bournmouth, with the exception of Brentford they were all potential 6 pointers, even this early in the season. Winning is vital of course, but given we are in a relegation battle for the whole season we need to be beating those around us.

From what I have seen so far, this is not a strong league this year and I still think we are bottom 3 with or without the deduction.

We have journeyman players and manager, no foundation for the future.

Millwall will be interesting, win and there is renewed confidence (+ pts) lose and Bournmouth was a 1 off same as Cardiff and Birmingham.

Need a good run starting from last night

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

Bloody League Arbitration Panel, messing up my careful calculations!

 

[PriceAPP]

8 hours ago, gurujuan said:

True, but we’ll be in a similar position, waiting for the players we’ve signed this time around, who clearly aren’t good enough to progress us, to run their contracts down, and so it goes on. 
Wouldn’t be so bad if we were progressing our development teams, but we’ve gone backwards there as well

I seem to remember the majority of people being happy with who we’d signed ?? That changed now then ? 

Edited November 4, 2020 by PriceAPP

[gurujuan]

Just now, PriceAPP said:

I seem to remember the majority of people being happy with who we’d signed ?? That changed now then ? 

I can only speak for myself mate, and I never was Maybe people got a bit carried away after the two cup games (Walsall, Rochdale) and that first game against Cardiff. To my mind, only Brown could be an improvement on what we had before

[PriceAPP]

3 minutes ago, gurujuan said:

I can only speak for myself mate, and I never was Maybe people got a bit carried away after the two cup games (Walsall, Rochdale) and that first game against Cardiff. To my mind, only Brown could be an improvement on what we had before

The injuries we’ve already been dealt are unfortunate - can hardly believe it but then again this is Wednesday. 

[Sambo89]

On 03/10/2020 at 13:06, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

With some of the comments on here in recent weeks about when we should expect to be out of the bottom three, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at what the implications of our points deduction could be for our prospects this season.

 

The graph below deals with average points tallies and so consequently represents progress as linear (which it obviously isn't), but as a rough guide to the average progress we'd need in order to beat the drop with varying degrees of comfort, hopefully it helps...

 

 

Games are plotted along the horizontal axis and points tallies are on the vertical.

 

The red 'average survival' line shows the average number of points needed to avoid relegation since the Championship was rebranded 16 years ago, whilst all the other lines show how various average points per game tallies would see Wednesday progress in relation to that line, given our points deduction.

 

A few things which stand out:

 

• Although 1.3 points per game would be enough to keep us up in an average Championship season, we wouldn't escape the bottom three until game 41, which would certainly test the nerves of Wednesdayites everywhere! If the bar is raised much higher than average at the bottom of the division this season, then we'd be in real trouble.

 

• 1.4 points per game would see us stay up in all but the most extreme of Championship seasons, finishing six points above the average relegation mark, and yet we'd still be in the bottom three until game 30.

 

• What's really quite telling is that even with the form needed to reach the playoffs in an average season, we'd be in the bottom three until game 22, which is our final game of this calendar year.

 

Looking at our squad, I can't imagine too many would back us to maintain top-six form over the season, so we may have to accept that it could take until the second half, final third or even later in the season before we finally claw ourselves out of the bottom three.

 

If that proves to be the case, then our club is going to need level heads, among both the playing squad and the fanbase. It's going to do us no favours if we all start getting the jitters because our heads are still below water in the new year - that may well be the case, and that may well be what an ultimately successful season looks like this time around.

Great post and fair play for the amount of work and effort put in, far more than I'd probably ever be ar5ed to put into a post. 

 

Gunna be a long season int it, but anything out of the bottom 3 would be a successful season. 

[trevdi9]

2 hours ago, gurujuan said:

I can only speak for myself mate, and I never was Maybe people got a bit carried away after the two cup games (Walsall, Rochdale) and that first game against Cardiff. To my mind, only Brown could be an improvement on what we had before

you are not on your own Guru , 

[Guest]

10 hours ago, gurujuan said:

True, but we’ll be in a similar position, waiting for the players we’ve signed this time around, who clearly aren’t good enough to progress us, to run their contracts down, and so it goes on. 
Wouldn’t be so bad if we were progressing our development teams, but we’ve gone backwards there as well

 

I don't think it'll be as bad, the problem last time was the players were on massive wages, Rhodes, Westwood, Abdi, Jones, meaning no one wanted to sign them and no room left in FFP to sign others.

This time no one is on that sort of money and we haven't spent the big transfer fees either, presuming we stay in the Championship and remain sensible we should be able to get stronger each year as we erase the really awful years for losses and can recruit with a bit of a bigger budget than this year.

[gurujuan]

10 minutes ago, fingyfop said:

 

I don't think it'll be as bad, the problem last time was the players were on massive wages, Rhodes, Westwood, Abdi, Jones, meaning no one wanted to sign them and no room left in FFP to sign others.

This time no one is on that sort of money and we haven't spent the big transfer fees either, presuming we stay in the Championship and remain sensible we should be able to get stronger each year as we erase the really awful years for losses and can recruit with a bit of a bigger budget than this year.

Well that’s true, hopefully anyway. At a time when money will still be tight, we won’t make our money back on the likes of Windass and Paterson

[83owl]

11 hours ago, gurujuan said:

Well that’s true, hopefully anyway. At a time when money will still be tight, we won’t make our money back on the likes of Windass and Paterson

I dont think Windass is a bad signing. Hes not one we are going to make millions and millions on but I think he will hold his value and it is useful to have someone who can play in a number of positions across the front line. Problem is we also signed a number of other "utility players" when we needed to be more targeted. 

 

I said all pre season we need another CM, especially with us playing a formation which has 3 starting there. Brown/Luongo are always injured, Hunt isnt ready to play 20+ games and Bannan is woeful defensively. 

[Treborowl]

On 03/10/2020 at 13:06, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

With some of the comments on here in recent weeks about when we should expect to be out of the bottom three, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at what the implications of our points deduction could be for our prospects this season.

 

The graph below deals with average points tallies and so consequently represents progress as linear (which it obviously isn't), but as a rough guide to the average progress we'd need in order to beat the drop with varying degrees of comfort, hopefully it helps...

 

 

Games are plotted along the horizontal axis and points tallies are on the vertical.

 

The red 'average survival' line shows the average number of points needed to avoid relegation since the Championship was rebranded 16 years ago, whilst all the other lines show how various average points per game tallies would see Wednesday progress in relation to that line, given our points deduction.

 

A few things which stand out:

 

• Although 1.3 points per game would be enough to keep us up in an average Championship season, we wouldn't escape the bottom three until game 41, which would certainly test the nerves of Wednesdayites everywhere! If the bar is raised much higher than average at the bottom of the division this season, then we'd be in real trouble.

 

• 1.4 points per game would see us stay up in all but the most extreme of Championship seasons, finishing six points above the average relegation mark, and yet we'd still be in the bottom three until game 30.

 

• What's really quite telling is that even with the form needed to reach the playoffs in an average season, we'd be in the bottom three until game 22, which is our final game of this calendar year.

 

Looking at our squad, I can't imagine too many would back us to maintain top-six form over the season, so we may have to accept that it could take until the second half, final third or even later in the season before we finally claw ourselves out of the bottom three.

 

If that proves to be the case, then our club is going to need level heads, among both the playing squad and the fanbase. It's going to do us no favours if we all start getting the jitters because our heads are still below water in the new year - that may well be the case, and that may well be what an ultimately successful season looks like this time around.

Excellent case stated!