Popular Post areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted October 3, 2020 With some of the comments on here in recent weeks about when we should expect to be out of the bottom three, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at what the implications of our points deduction could be for our prospects this season. The graph below deals with average points tallies and so consequently represents progress as linear (which it obviously isn't), but as a rough guide to the average progress we'd need in order to beat the drop with varying degrees of comfort, hopefully it helps... Games are plotted along the horizontal axis and points tallies are on the vertical. The red 'average survival' line shows the average number of points needed to avoid relegation since the Championship was rebranded 16 years ago, whilst all the other lines show how various average points per game tallies would see Wednesday progress in relation to that line, given our points deduction. A few things which stand out: Although 1.3 points per game would be enough to keep us up in an average Championship season, we wouldn't escape the bottom three until game 41, which would certainly test the nerves of Wednesdayites everywhere! If the bar is raised much higher than average at the bottom of the division this season, then we'd be in real trouble. 1.4 points per game would see us stay up in all but the most extreme of Championship seasons, finishing six points above the average relegation mark, and yet we'd still be in the bottom three until game 30. What's really quite telling is that even with the form needed to reach the playoffs in an average season, we'd be in the bottom three until game 22, which is our final game of this calendar year. Looking at our squad, I can't imagine too many would back us to maintain top-six form over the season, so we may have to accept that it could take until the second half, final third or even later in the season before we finally claw ourselves out of the bottom three. If that proves to be the case, then our club is going to need level heads, among both the playing squad and the fanbase. It's going to do us no favours if we all start getting the jitters because our heads are still below water in the new year - that may well be the case, and that may well be what an ultimately successful season looks like this time around. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZicoSterland2 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 4th bottom, that would be success this season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis Rimmer Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Good analysis. We're in for a grim season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, ZicoSterland2 said: 4th bottom, that would be success this season. I don't know why I bother! I agree with you, though - I'm just trying to highlight what we're up against and that we could well be in the bottom three for the majority of the season, not because we're not on track to achieve that aim, but simply because our points deduction is crippling us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Night-Owl Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Due to the points reduction, loss of revenue and the increasing likelihood of the season being hampered or unfinished, just surviving on and off the pitch will be something to build from. But the state of the game is such a mess, with so much disparity between the top clubs and the rest that our only hope is to continue to exist and survive as a club. For too long fans were taken for granted and without them the game is going down the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ellis Rimmer said: Good analysis. We're in for a grim season It depends, doesn't it? If we hit that 1.4 points per game mark, for example, then that would be our best points haul since Carlos' second season and would give us reasonable cause for optimism going into next season... ...but we'd most probably be in the bottom three until somewhere around late February, which might not feel great. Hopefully we as fans can judge things rationally and not demand instant success if that sort of scenario plays out this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis Rimmer Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 1 minute ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: Hopefully we as fans can judge things rationally and not demand instant success if that sort of scenario plays out this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 Just now, Ellis Rimmer said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Owl Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 The expectation from 99.9% of outsiders (as well as many of our own fans) is we'll go down, anything other than this is a success. There's been a significant change of playing and coaching personnel, coupled with our previous recent poor form under Monk last season clearly shows we're massively up against it this season. It really doesn't matter how we do it, scrap and scrape ugly wins and boring draws for all I care... survival is the be all and end all this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMOwl72 Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 4th bottom and a happy ship., although fourth bottom wouldn’t translate to great performances across the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kendo Nagasaki Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 42 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: With some of the comments on here in recent weeks about when we should expect to be out of the bottom three, I thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at what the implications of our points deduction could be for our prospects this season. The graph below deals with average points tallies and so consequently represents progress as linear (which it obviously isn't), but as a rough guide to the average progress we'd need in order to beat the drop with varying degrees of comfort, hopefully it helps... Games are plotted along the horizontal axis and points tallies are on the vertical. The red 'average survival' line shows the average number of points needed to avoid relegation since the Championship was rebranded 16 years ago, whilst all the other lines show how various average points per game tallies would see Wednesday progress in relation to that line, given our points deduction. A few things which stand out: Although 1.3 points per game would be enough to keep us up in an average Championship season, we wouldn't escape the bottom three until game 41, which would certainly test the nerves of Wednesdayites everywhere! If the bar is raised much higher than average at the bottom of the division this season, then we'd be in real trouble. 1.4 points per game would see us stay up in all but the most extreme of Championship seasons, finishing six points above the average relegation mark, and yet we'd still be in the bottom three until game 30. What's really quite telling is that even with the form needed to reach the playoffs in an average season, we'd be in the bottom three until game 22, which is our final game of this calendar year. Looking at our squad, I can't imagine too many would back us to maintain top-six form over the season, so we may have to accept that it could take until the second half, final third or even later in the season before we finally claw ourselves out of the bottom three. If that proves to be the case, then our club is going to need level heads, among both the playing squad and the fanbase. It's going to do us no favours if we all start getting the jitters because our heads are still below water in the new year - that may well be the case, and that may well be what an ultimately successful season looks like this time around. Good post pal some interesting points. Are you a PM by any chance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 Just now, Kendo Nagasaki said: Good post pal some interesting points. Are you a PM by any chance ? Thanks. PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJMortimer Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 Hmmm... an opening post that requires some degree of contemplation and perspective. Good luck mate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prowl Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 At this point I just want to get to the situation where we have 1 point. Positive territory then worry about ovehauling the clubs above us. Having less than zero points is negative in more ways than 1. I think when we can see 2nd bottom within our sights it will encourage us to fight harder to overtake them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJMortimer said: Hmmm... an opening post that requires some degree of contemplation and perspective. Good luck mate. I probably should have waited 'til later when the majority will have had a skinful. Especially if we lose; this is the kind of thread angry p*ssed-up Owlstalkers love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kendo Nagasaki Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said: Thanks. PM? Haha you’ve already answered, sorry too lazy to originally write Project Manager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzy logics Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 21. Sheffield Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S36 OWL Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 1 hour ago, ZicoSterland2 said: 4th bottom, that would be success this season. I would take a forth bottom finish now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted October 3, 2020 Author Share Posted October 3, 2020 4 hours ago, Kendo Nagasaki said: Haha you’ve already answered, sorry too lazy to originally write Project Manager Ah, I see. Nope, not me. I'm just a saddo who likes graphs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
areNOTwhatTHEYseem Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 Well, after ten games, I thought this might be worth revisiting. The table's starting to take shape now, and any significant deviation from what's needed will start to become gradually harder to claw back with every passing game. We've picked up 11 points so far, averaging 1.1 points per game. It'll come as no surprise to anyone that if we were to carry on in this form for the rest of the season, we'd almost certainly be relegated on 38 points. In order to hit the 1.4 ppg average that should see us comfortably survive by the end of the season, we'll need to average 1.47 ppg from here on in. If we lower our sights and aim for the 1.3 ppg average which would keep us up in an average Championship season, we'll need to average 1.33 ppg in our remaining games. Those three losses in a row were bloody shambolic and may well have handed a boost to three of our likely relegation rivals, but there's still plenty of time to claw things back if we can get things right more often than not from here on out. Of course, that's a pretty big 'if' at this moment in time, and I'm sure the majority of us are going to take some convincing to believe that it's actually within our capabilities unless something seismic happens in order to get this squad picking up more points on a consistent basis. To sum up: we've made a difficult situation even harder for ourselves with the start we've made, but maybe not to the extent it might feel like...as long as we start to put it right consistently now. Fingers crossed, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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