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-12 points. How many games to break even?


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14 games, by which point we would be massively behind the rest of the sides.

 

Almost a third of the season to get back to zero points, which would then require taking another 50 odd points (52/53 points should be enough) from the remaining 32 games.

 

Unless we sign 4 or 5 players of real quality, especially 2 proper (with at least 1 experienced) striker, we are doomed.

 

Or we can bury our heads in the sands, like the last few years, and just say it will be alright.

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Cardiff - 1 point 

Watford - No points 

Bristol City - 3 points 

QPR - 3 points 

Birmingham - 1 point 

Brentford - 1 point 

Luton - 3 points 

 

Game 7 is possible. Even if that return is optimistic the games that follow are Rotherham and Wycombe so we should be reaching this in the first ten games.

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8 hours ago, sMacLean said:

10 games. I think any more than that and we can't chase down fast enough.

If it takes 10 games to get to zero, we prob would be relegated, with around 42pts.

To have a good chance we need to average 1.35 pts per game, levels after 9 games.

Though a few yrs ago, blackburn went down with 51pts.

Usually 50 is more than enough.

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I was quietly confident a couple of weeks ago, but now, with 9 days before we kick off for real, with still no strikers in the building, I'm beginning to worry that this is a bridge too far. I hope I'm wrong, but just one striker who appears from the outside to have issues is beyond a joke. 

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17 hours ago, JOCOWl said:

Agree. Looking at the fixtures in October we have to enter November on at least 0 points. I know some teams might surprise us but on paper october has to be a good run. 

Yeah, with all due respect to Luton, Rotherham and Wycombe. If we're not taking at least 7 points from 9 (baring any exceptional starts from any of those three sides) then we probably will be in trouble. A decent start and a good October should see us on track to survive. A poor start followed up with a bad October and it'll be a tough ask.

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As a rule of thumb, teams at the bottom average around one point per game whilst teams at the top average almost two points per game.

 

We will need promotion/play-off form for much of the season but, if we can start with that sort of form, we should be breaking even (0 points) after around six games and getting out of the bottom three after around thirteen or fourteen games (13/14 points) with the added advantage that, again based on such form, our goal difference should be miles better than anyone else hovering around the bottom three or four.

 

Would be nice to see this happen but it may take a lot more matches to catch up and overtake the bottom three.

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On ‎02‎/‎09‎/‎2020 at 01:09, TomtheOwl95 said:

Personally if we're still in minus points by the end of October then it'll be a tough ask. Having said that the Championship is mental and can change within a week and especially with so many 3 game weeks this season it might have more twists and turns than normal.

 

I think the amount of 3 game weeks put us at huge disadvantage.

 

Our squad is threadbare.  No strength in depth in any position, apart from CB.

 

We are asking for players to get injured without being able to afford them the required rest and rotation.

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21 hours ago, Westfield Owl said:

 

I think the amount of 3 game weeks put us at huge disadvantage.

 

Our squad is threadbare.  No strength in depth in any position, apart from CB.

 

We are asking for players to get injured without being able to afford them the required rest and rotation.

To be fair if you add the youngsters in the squad isn't that small. It isn't threadbare. You never know how well they'll do but the one thing they should be is fit enough to play a decent number of games.

 

Injuries, as we know from 17/18 and 18/19 can rip any squad apart. you can't really worry too much about it I don't think. Plus every club will have to cope with the quick turn around, not just Wednesday.

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