Ask Carlos

[hodgybysea]

Are you watching what's going on in the world right now?,football clubs are going to be right in the brown stuff now money that has been splashed about ain't going to be around and owners are going to have to foot the bill.The chances of anyone buying a club now is virtually nil.

In short we are going to be relying on Mr Chansiri for quite a while,might be the right time for some to wind their necks in a bit.

[happy bunny]

1 hour ago, DJMortimer said:

 

Let me use the analogy of a single football match. Suppose we dominate the first half and go into the break with a 3-0 lead but collapse in the second half and are battered; seemingly unable to stem the tide. At the end, we are fortunate to hang on for the draw. How do you think the supporters are feeling as they leave the ground? You have chosen to pretend that the second half never happened. 

 

Not at all, I'm not defending CC in his final season, I just feel he deserves credit for his efforts in the first two seasons

 

Something that is too easily dismissed

[@owlstalk]

44 minutes ago, hodgybysea said:

Are you watching what's going on in the world right now?,football clubs are going to be right in the brown stuff now money that has been splashed about ain't going to be around and owners are going to have to foot the bill.The chances of anyone buying a club now is virtually nil.

In short we are going to be relying on Mr Chansiri for quite a while,might be the right time for some to wind their necks in a bit.

 

Absolute tosh

The business world will be full of people absolutely chomping at the bit to buy football clubs at much reduced price and profiting from the future success of it

 

That's how business works

Same as people throwing their cash into shares right now - they're at an all time low and expected to rise sharply once this Coronavirus has gone away.

Stop fearmongering and saying 'take what you get and be grateful for it' to everyone, and get up off your knees

 

 

[DJMortimer]

6 minutes ago, happy bunny said:

 

Not at all, I'm not defending CC in his final season, I just feel he deserves credit for his efforts in the first two seasons

 

Something that is too easily dismissed

 

I agree; we almost achieved the dream. God knows how much the 'personal advisors' would have been rubbing their hands with the Premier League funding that would have opened up, but that's all conjecture now. We didn't quite make it. 

 

But I think it's fair to observe that the second half of his tenure is the one that has had the more lasting effects.

[hodgybysea]

Just a moment Owlstalk,I read some of your stuff and don't answer with detrimental phrases.

You don't agree but it's unproven who will be right or wrong,if the worlds full of businesses waiting to make money out of broken clubs I would be pleased,but I fear there are a few Bury and Boltons around the corner.

I would like to have as much confidence as you,but it would seem we already have club Chairman,right down the Pyramid, already calling out for goverment help.

That's my polite response thanks.

[@owlstalk]

3 minutes ago, hodgybysea said:

Just a moment Owlstalk,I read some of your stuff and don't answer with detrimental phrases.

You don't agree but it's unproven who will be right or wrong,if the worlds full of businesses waiting to make money out of broken clubs I would be pleased,but I fear there are a few Bury and Boltons around the corner.

I would like to have as much confidence as you,but it would seem we already have club Chairman,right down the Pyramid, already calling out for goverment help.

That's my polite response thanks.

 

Thank you and sorry if I came across as too forceful in my previous response.

I agree that some clubs might go to the wall

We won't though

And as for people looking to profit by buying clubs at a fraction of their cost right now you can bet your bottom dollar they're out there.

In fact at the last fans forum Chansiri himself said there were definitely people out there ready to come in if he sold up (which he said he was doing at that fans forum)

[gurujuan]

2 hours ago, DJMortimer said:

 

Let me use the analogy of a single football match. Suppose we dominate the first half and go into the break with a 3-0 lead but collapse in the second half and are battered; seemingly unable to stem the tide. At the end, we are fortunate to hang on for the draw. How do you think the supporters are feeling as they leave the ground? You have chosen to pretend that the second half never happened. 

Thrilled having seen 6 goals?

[Guest LondonOwl313]

5 hours ago, @owlstalk said:

 

Absolute tosh

The business world will be full of people absolutely chomping at the bit to buy football clubs at much reduced price and profiting from the future success of it

 

That's how business works

Same as people throwing their cash into shares right now - they're at an all time low and expected to rise sharply once this Coronavirus has gone away.

Stop fearmongering and saying 'take what you get and be grateful for it' to everyone, and get up off your knees

 

 

The only people ‘throwing cash into shares’ at the moment are the amateur investors.. the professionals all exited at the end of February when key moving averages and support levels broke. There’s no economic activity so loads of companies are going to go bust.. not really an environment to add risk into. I’m sure it will recover in time but history says it will probably fall 50% first

[@owlstalk]

6 minutes ago, LondonOwl313 said:

The only people ‘throwing cash into shares’ at the moment are the amateur investors.. the professionals all exited at the end of February when key moving averages and support levels broke. There’s no economic activity so loads of companies are going to go bust.. not really an environment to add risk into. I’m sure it will recover in time but history says it will probably fall 50% first

 

 

There's no history that can compare to a global pandemic

 

Either way people are definitely buying stocks and shares currently as is evidenced in the indexes.

And even more proof is in the stocks and shares thread in the dressing room section on here.

[Guest LondonOwl313]

Just now, @owlstalk said:

 

 

There's no history that can compare to a global pandemic

 

Either way people are definitely buying stocks and shares currently as is evidenced in the indexes.

And even more proof is in the stocks and shares thread in the dressing room section on here.

This kind of proves my point.. I’ve not seen that thread but guessing most of those guys aren’t institutional investors, they’re amateurs throwing a few grand in.
 

Markets tend to trend and a 11 year uptrend just concluded.. not the time to be loading up  
 

The indices are down 30%+ this year, had a mini bounce last week but that’s unlikely to be it as the lockdown has only just started

[@owlstalk]

25 minutes ago, LondonOwl313 said:

This kind of proves my point.. I’ve not seen that thread but guessing most of those guys aren’t institutional investors, they’re amateurs throwing a few grand in.

 

It's a mix - some amateurs and some who are in the game big time

[bobness]

1 hour ago, LondonOwl313 said:

The only people ‘throwing cash into shares’ at the moment are the amateur investors.. the professionals all exited at the end of February when key moving averages and support levels broke. There’s no economic activity so loads of companies are going to go bust.. not really an environment to add risk into. I’m sure it will recover in time but history says it will probably fall 50% first

 

Warren Buffet, rank amateur! 

 

[Guest LondonOwl313]

46 minutes ago, bobness said:

 

Warren Buffet, rank amateur! 

 

I always find it odd when people point to what Buffett is doing... his investment timeframe is forever, he's always a net buyer. And he doesn't buy the market, Berkshire Hathaway has a relatively small group of holdings over which they have a large degree of management control. 

 

Buffett will always say that the market will go higher over a long enough timeframe which is true... I've never once seen him make a market call or say it's really poor value or really great value right now, that's just not his game. Would be very surprised if he's pointed at this month as being a great buying opportunity.

 

Can't believe people think its a great time to buy when the global economy is literally shut down and US markets, the global bellwether, confirmed a bear market for the first time since 2008. At best these things take time to work through, the buying opportunity is on stabilisation not when the market is +/-5% everyday. At worst there's much more downside to come. Either way, no pros are diving in right now, its a traders market

[bobness]

58 minutes ago, LondonOwl313 said:

I always find it odd when people point to what Buffett is doing... his investment timeframe is forever, he's always a net buyer. And he doesn't buy the market, Berkshire Hathaway has a relatively small group of holdings over which they have a large degree of management control. 

 

Buffett will always say that the market will go higher over a long enough timeframe which is true... I've never once seen him make a market call or say it's really poor value or really great value right now, that's just not his game. Would be very surprised if he's pointed at this month as being a great buying opportunity.

 

Can't believe people think its a great time to buy when the global economy is literally shut down and US markets, the global bellwether, confirmed a bear market for the first time since 2008. At best these things take time to work through, the buying opportunity is on stabilisation not when the market is +/-5% everyday. At worst there's much more downside to come. Either way, no pros are diving in right now, its a traders market

 

It's very much a buyers market right now. If you have cash, now is the time to buy, not three months ago when the market was doing well! 

 

That doesn't mean you should be buying anything and everything, but unless you expect a complete global meltdown, many stocks are going to recover from their current lows. In fact, many have already experienced very nice gains. 

 

Want an example? Let's look at the live events industry, seeing as we're on a football forum: last week Monday, Live Nation (LYV) was at $33.65, by Friday it closed at $47.15!

 

Sorry, but you're spewing absolute guff. While many amateurs and opportunists might be chucking in some cash now, the pros are still very much investing! 

 

[Guest LondonOwl313]

18 minutes ago, bobness said:

 

It's very much a buyers market right now. If you have cash, now is the time to buy, not three months ago when the market was doing well! 

 

That doesn't mean you should be buying anything and everything, but unless you expect a complete global meltdown, many stocks are going to recover from their current lows. In fact, many have already experienced very nice gains. 

 

Want an example? Let's look at the live events industry, seeing as we're on a football forum: last week Monday, Live Nation (LYV) was at $33.65, by Friday it closed at $47.15!

 

Sorry, but you're spewing absolute guff. While many amateurs and opportunists might be chucking in some cash now, the pros are still very much investing! 

 

What do you do for a living? I work for an asset manager so probably know more than the average owlstalker about financial markets. But you go ahead and pile in buying if you think I’m chatting sh*t

 

No idea why you’ve posted a chart of a stock over a meaningless 5 day period.. probably because it’s down 30+% this year. In bear markets there are always bounces.. check out charts of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 for examples

 

As for whether or not it’s a complete global meltdown.. that’s definitely a distinct possibility. The doctors are saying no vaccine for 12 months, and it seems that we’re going to be unable to go back to normal without one. China have just tried to reopen and have already reclosed their cinemas after only a week! So any investment thesis that involves return to normal in 3 or 6 months probably isn’t going to pan out. If this goes on for 12 months FTSE will be in the 3000s so another 40% off.. that’s where it bottomed in 2009 and 2002. 
 

And actually, the most simple rule the pros use in investing is to buy above the 200 day moving average and sell below it. You’re saying this is a great time to buy yet markets broke those levels in February.. pros were long until then, then switched short. No markets are every too high to start buying or too low to start selling. You’re exhibiting a typical amateur view that just because price has fallen it’s a great buy and no doubt if it went up it would be a great sell to you. But that’s kind of the opposite to how markets work as they trend.

 

Everyone has different timeframes in this game but the odds of markets just going up and not looking back from here aren’t very good.. they nearly always bounce around near the lows for a while if they’re bottoming, and they may even break lower and continue the downtrend. I guess what I’m saying is there’s no rush to jump in.. there will be a good buying opportunity at the end of all this but it’s not clear where from

[jonesy87shef]

I agree with London owl. I’m far from an expert, but a business cycle goes as follows, peak, recession, depression, trough, recovery, expansion, peak again.

 

To me it feels only feels like we are in a recession phase. Much more heartache and problems to come, companies will go bust rendering shares worthless, be lucky to get anything after asset stripping. 

 

I agree in time, those companies that stay afloat will increase in value and share prices will go up, currently it’s just a big gamble. So much uncertainty. 

 

Again I’m no expert, but I’d say wait several months, shares will be cheaper, you’ll see what companies will stay alive/thrive.

 

All I know is this virus will financially ruin millions and make millions others rich.

 

For anyone interested, that’s a business cycle put about as simplistically as possible.

[bobness]

52 minutes ago, LondonOwl313 said:

What do you do for a living? I work for an asset manager so probably know more than the average owlstalker about financial markets. But you go ahead and pile in buying if you think I’m chatting sh*t

 

No idea why you’ve posted a chart of a stock over a meaningless 5 day period.. probably because it’s down 30+% this year. In bear markets there are always bounces.. check out charts of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 for examples

 

As for whether or not it’s a complete global meltdown.. that’s definitely a distinct possibility. The doctors are saying no vaccine for 12 months, and it seems that we’re going to be unable to go back to normal without one. China have just tried to reopen and have already reclosed their cinemas after only a week! So any investment thesis that involves return to normal in 3 or 6 months probably isn’t going to pan out. If this goes on for 12 months FTSE will be in the 3000s so another 40% off.. that’s where it bottomed in 2009 and 2002. 
 

And actually, the most simple rule the pros use in investing is to buy above the 200 day moving average and sell below it. You’re saying this is a great time to buy yet markets broke those levels in February.. pros were long until then, then switched short. No markets are every too high to start buying or too low to start selling. You’re exhibiting a typical amateur view that just because price has fallen it’s a great buy and no doubt if it went up it would be a great sell to you. But that’s kind of the opposite to how markets work as they trend.

 

Everyone has different timeframes in this game but the odds of markets just going up and not looking back from here aren’t very good.. they nearly always bounce around near the lows for a while if they’re bottoming, and they may even break lower and continue the downtrend. I guess what I’m saying is there’s no rush to jump in.. there will be a good buying opportunity at the end of all this but it’s not clear where from

 

Considering you work in the field, if anyone on here is going to listen to either of us, I would suggest they listen to you. I don't personally play with the market, so much so, that I put a bit of money into an index. Had I been prudent about things, I would've pulled that money out when I saw things were going pear shaped a month ago (and I did take a peek), but because I don't have a habit of trading I just left it in there. As it stands, I'm down a "chunk" of change (on a personal note, not too bothered, as I wasn't relying on the money, and so many around us are already struggling day to day), but with that said, the fund is doing a lot better this week than it was last. Am I going to put a little more in with the hope of "balancing" things out? I'm not really sure yet.

 

On the topic of Buffet, I'm not going to contradict anything you've written, I was just going on a headline I saw the other week, where he increased his position in Delta, so evidently is still trading.

 

Regarding the Live Nation ticker, I'm not sure I'd call it "meaningless", but as you've pointed out, that depends on the nature/perspective of the investment. The point of singling out a single stock, was to differentiate between specific opportunities and markets on the whole (Live Nation took an absolute beating, dropping from about $75 to $30. It could've dropped further, but it didn't. It may well drop again though, I'm not saying it won't).

 

Vaccine in 12 months, if we're lucky. I think that's the optimistic timescale, and if all goes to plan. It will certainly take several months for things to get back to "normal", but considering the major roadblock is the healthcare system being stretched too thin, I'd expect that to look very different in a few months from now. Unfortunately we don't have months to play with now, so that's a big part of the problem we're facing.

 

Pros are certainly still trading, but perhaps not on the scale they were. I'd imagine liquidity would be an issue for many, but you'd know more about that. There's definitely opportunity out there, and there are always going to be pros that have riskier and more aggressive strategies. That was my only point. I wasn't advising Owlstalkers to go out and invest in the rmarkets (although that 10-year season ticket is looking really tasty!)

 

 

[Bukta]

Huge amounts will be being made by shorting. 

[Bukta]

I’m going to go another 5% FTSE loss today.

[@owlstalk]

Article in The Athletic....

 

 

 

 

Feels the third season he should have changed things round to surprise other teams. Sticking to 442 was a mistake.

 

Also

 

My period in Sheffield, it was not an easy dressing room. It was not a difficult dressing room, but not easy. Like other clubs because you have different egos and different personalities. I am the manager, I am paid to do the job and one of the jobs that you must do is try to control and achieve a balance between the egos in the team. I know with my experience how important it is to have one or two players with leadership in the dressing room to control the egos.

 

“The reality is I was very happy when I was in Sheffield because I had the captain Glenn Loovens and also Jose Semedo who were really good captains of the team. Playing in the first XI or not, I know the importance of having these players in the dressing room.”

 

Likes Chansiri but there's a but

 

‘He is a very good person and he has learned a lot....I loved to work with him, he is the chairman in my life that I have had the best connection with.”

 

Not that it meant that the right players always ended up being signed, despite often good intentions, especially after the disbanding of the club’s transfer committee. “We achieved some very good players like Barry Bannan for free, Fernando Forestieri (for a reported £3 million) was very good business,” he explains. “Daniel Pudil was free also. After the end of the first season I gave the club a list of three players who were the best players from different clubs in the Championship that I wanted to bring but after this I know nothing, I gave it to the chairman. I know the chairman gave 100 per cent to try to bring the players in but it was very difficult to achieve that list and time was running out.

 

“The second season we signed players that were not my third option or fourth option, it was players that the advisers proposed. Sometimes we had to decide in the last two days of the transfer window to sign the players. It was really very hard, it is why the club made mistakes."