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BREAKING: All games suspended until 3 April "at the earliest" [Update: full EFL statement in OP]

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, talon said:

 

No, it is not. You are confusing ACTIVE cases with RESOLVED cases.

When this article was written (a week ago), there were 9100 ACTIVE cases... of which the death rate was about 5%. That means there were 9100 sick people and are still sick at the time of writing. 

 

RESOLVED cases means someone had the disease and has either recovered or died. 

The latest statistics show that 3400 are RESOLVED cases, and of those, 40% have died. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

 

That does not mean a 40% death rate for the disease as a whole. That means that of people that have got it and now don't, 40% have died. As more people recover, that number will drop, but it is absolutely 100% factually correct that right now, of people that have got it and don't have it any more, 40% have died. 

 

Please do not accuse me of spreading misinformation. I am working on Covid-19 samples starting next week. I have been holding myself to the highest level of informational rigour in the Coronavirus thread thread in The Dressing Room. I am not spreading misinformation and I assure you I am taking this entire situation extremely seriously. 

 

The death rate you are talking about is based off of both active and resolved cases, and that stands at 7%. This is according to the WHO's latest sit rep.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_6

 

Edited by StudentOwl

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2 hours ago, Kameron said:

If she was that seriously Ill she'd be in intensive care surrounded by medical staff in space suits.

Can you confirm that there are intensive care beds available? Because there won't be in the near future. 20% of cases need hospitalisation, 5% need ventilators, there are only 5000 in the whole of the country, Most are in use a lot of the time with normal hospital cases but ignore that, once the number of infections rises to 100k there won't be any ventilators left.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, talon said:

Perspective:

 

"Public Health England told ITV News: "The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season.

"The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually.

"This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15."

Since October, more than 4,000 people with confirmed flu have been admitted to hospitals in England with at least 70 deaths."

 

Can anyone explain why we're not all in a complete panic about seasonal flu?

 

"The most at-risk groups are also slightly different between the two illnesses. Current understanding of Covid-19 suggests that elderly people and those with underlying illnesses have the biggest risk of developing a severe infection, while those most at-risk from influenza also include children and pregnant women. Initial evidence suggests that, while children are important drivers of transmitting influenza, they are less affected than adults by Covid-19."

Perspective:

-Flu has a mortality rate of ~0.1%. Humanity has an innate immunity to many strains of flu, as we have coevolved for many years. That means there is a buffer as people who could hypothetically transmit the disease kill it off when it enters their body.

-Covid-19 has a mortality rate of ~3-7%. Humanity has no innate immunity to this strain, as it originated in a different species and we lack many years of coevolution. That means there is no buffer of transmission as people cannot fight off the flu before they become another source of transmission. 

Edited by StudentOwl

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12 minutes ago, StudentOwl said:

No, it is not. You are confusing ACTIVE cases with RESOLVED cases.

When this article was written (a week ago), there were 9100 ACTIVE cases... of which the death rate was about 5%. That means there were 9100 sick people and are still sick at the time of writing. 

 

RESOLVED cases means someone had the disease and has either recovered or died. 

The latest statistics show that 3400 are RESOLVED cases, and of those, 40% have died. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy

 

That does not mean a 40% death rate for the disease as a whole. That means that of people that have got it and now don't, 40% have died. As more people recover, that number will drop, but it is absolutely 100% factually correct that right now, of people that have got it and don't have it any more, 40% have died. 

 

Please do not accuse me of spreading misinformation. I am working on Covid-19 samples starting next week. I have been holding myself to the highest level of informational rigour in the Coronavirus thread thread in The Dressing Room. I am not spreading misinformation and I assure you I am taking this entire situation extremely seriously. 

 

The death rate you are talking about is based off of both active and resolved cases, and that stands at 7%. This is according to the WHO's latest sit rep.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_6

 

To clarify, all of this is in relation to the current state of play in Italy... which was explicit in the original post but not in this one!

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18 hours ago, Salmonbones said:

 

Last time I looked, us (Humans) still had teeth we call canines - meant to tear meat apart.

Wow you are a knowledgeable, evolution certainly enhanced your intellect.

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Are some people still banging on about seasonal flu?

 

Really?!?

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8 minutes ago, StudentOwl said:

Perspective:

-Flu has a mortality rate of ~0.1%. Humanity has an innate immunity to many strains of flu, as we have coevolved for many years. That means there is a buffer as people who could hypothetically transmit the disease kill it off when it enters their body.

-Covid-19 has a mortality rate of ~3-7%. Humanity has no innate immunity to this strain, as it originated in a different species and we lack many years of coevolution. That means there is no buffer of transmission as people cannot fight off the flu before they become another source of transmission. 

"Humanity has an innate immunity to many strains of flu, as we have coevolved for many years."

28,000 deaths. In one flu season. That innate immunity thing is working out well, isn't it?

Trumpeting one-eyed statistics about 40% mortality rates is disingenous at best, or Sunday Sport-esque "look at me" type testicles at worst.

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Just now, talon said:

"Humanity has an innate immunity to many strains of flu, as we have coevolved for many years."

28,000 deaths. In one flu season. That innate immunity thing is working out well, isn't it?

Trumpeting one-eyed statistics about 40% mortality rates is disingenous at best, or Sunday Sport-esque "look at me" type testicles at worst.

You're so freakin' close to understanding it.

Yes, correct. Exactly right. 28,000 deaths in one flu season, and that's with us having some semblance of an innate immunity to it. Now imagine what it's going to be like when we don't have an innate immunity to it. 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Animis said:

 

It's interesting how different governments are reacting in an attempt to control the spread. Just now from the BBC:

 

Austria has banned gatherings of five people or more as part of a series of new, tighter restrictions to "starve" the coronavirus.

The government is also closing restaurants from Tuesday, and is telling people not to leave the home apart from to go to work, get food or grab other necessities, or to help people.

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz tweeted: "We're aware those are massive restrictions but they are necessary to defend the health of the Austrian people and starve out Covid-19."

Can they 'starve' this, and long long will that take? If they can't and this virus is that contagious and the projected figures will happened anyway, what is the point of implement these measures now.

Chinese data indicates that infection rates start to drop a couple of days after lock down although official figures still continue to rise for a couple of weeks before dropping. They then continue to drop until infections are very low. Keep going with isolation and they might well stop. At least at that stage it might be able to go back to trace and isolate tactics. It's still uncharted territory.

 

We need to buy time now to allow treatments/ vaccines to be developed. (in my opinion.)

 

If nothing else it will allow time for the shortage of ventilators to be addressed.

Edited by prowl

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Just now, StudentOwl said:

You're so freakin' close to understanding it.

Yes, correct. Exactly right. 28,000 deaths in one flu season, and that's with us having some semblance of an innate immunity to it. Now imagine what it's going to be like when we don't have an innate immunity to it. 

If you do have a genuine interest in the statistical C-19 picture, rather than a selective 'we're all doomed' type of outlook, then have a read of the attached link:

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

Highlights:

- Scientists can't yet say for sure what the fatality rate of the coronavirus is

- (The) World Health Organization, said during a news conference that about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 patients around the world have died.

- Epidemiologists believe the total number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is underestimated because people with few or mild symptoms may never see a doctor

- As testing expands........the total number of confirmed cases will go up and the ratio of deaths to infections will likely drop

- Complicating the matter, mortality numbers lag behind infection numbers simply because it takes days to weeks for severely ill people to die of COVID-19. Thus, current death rates should properly be divided by the number of known infections from the previous week or two,

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2 minutes ago, prowl said:

Chinese data indicates that infection rates start to drop a couple of days after lock down although official figures still continue to rise for a couple of weeks before dropping. They then continue to drop until infections are very low. Keep going with isolation and they might well stop. At least at that stage it might be able to go back to trace and isolate tactics. It's still uncharted territory.

 

We need to buy time now to allow treatments/ vaccines to be developed. (in my opinion.)

 

If nothing else it will allow time for the shortage of ventilators to be addressed.

 

The problem is that the data supplied is unreliable. Another factor is the government are keen to get people back to work thus limiting damage to the fragile economy. It could be a false sense of security. Any residual infection in China may go rampant once the general population start venturing outdoors again. Any secondary infection has the potential to be far worse than the first.

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Is it safe in here? :ph34r:

 

Has the thread turned into Dawn of the Dead, Lord of the Flies or Children of Men or something similar yet, like the local supermarkets? WTF:

 

Keep thinking it's my fault for watching too many dystopian, sci-fi horror, zombie and apocalyptic type films. :duntmatter::1276983839_MonkHome::ghoulguy: 

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6 minutes ago, talon said:

If you do have a genuine interest in the statistical C-19 picture, rather than a selective 'we're all doomed' type of outlook, then have a read of the attached link:

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

Highlights:

- Scientists can't yet say for sure what the fatality rate of the coronavirus is

- (The) World Health Organization, said during a news conference that about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 patients around the world have died.

- Epidemiologists believe the total number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is underestimated because people with few or mild symptoms may never see a doctor

- As testing expands........the total number of confirmed cases will go up and the ratio of deaths to infections will likely drop

- Complicating the matter, mortality numbers lag behind infection numbers simply because it takes days to weeks for severely ill people to die of COVID-19. Thus, current death rates should properly be divided by the number of known infections from the previous week or two,

On average death occurs 17 days after either infection or going symptomatic. The figure I saw were a bit ambiguous on that point or I failed to understand properly. On that basis you woolud need to compare with the infection rate from 2.5 weeks before not a week or two. Some cases die over three weeks later.

 

A lot of these death rate figures are going to get revised later. The best estimates I've seen say 1% to 6% depending largely on how the hospitals hold up. If we get to 60% of the popiulation getting infected the hospitals won't cope. There aren't enough doctors and nurses to cope even if they draft in retired/ student doctors and nurses.

 

Hopefully that can be avoided.

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13 minutes ago, ChinaOwl said:

 

The problem is that the data supplied is unreliable. Another factor is the government are keen to get people back to work thus limiting damage to the fragile economy. It could be a false sense of security. Any residual infection in China may go rampant once the general population start venturing outdoors again. Any secondary infection has the potential to be far worse than the first.

We won't know the truth until later but epidemiologist have been watching China closely and seem to believe the credibility of the figures. I trust the Chinese figures more than the Italian at this stage. The Italian death rate is too high in relation to the number of confirmed cases. They seem to be under reporting infection rates.

 

South Korea is very on the ball with the highest testing rate in the world. They haven't brought in total osolation like China and have got infection rates down. Whether they stay down is a different matter.

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17 minutes ago, prowl said:

On average death occurs 17 days after either infection or going symptomatic. The figure I saw were a bit ambiguous on that point or I failed to understand properly. On that basis you woolud need to compare with the infection rate from 2.5 weeks before not a week or two. Some cases die over three weeks later.

 

A lot of these death rate figures are going to get revised later. The best estimates I've seen say 1% to 6% depending largely on how the hospitals hold up. If we get to 60% of the popiulation getting infected the hospitals won't cope. There aren't enough doctors and nurses to cope even if they draft in retired/ student doctors and nurses.

 

Hopefully that can be avoided.

Indeed, and I think that this is the crucial point:

"However, the case-fatality ratio in Wuhan was 5.8%, while the rest of the country — spared the overwhelming bulk of sick patients — saw a rate of 0.7%.

This means fewer people are likely to die if the medical system is prepared to face an influx of coronavirus patients."

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18 hours ago, dobbo said:

Of course it's insignificant in the bigger picture but people shouldn't be castigated for discussing what the thread is about.

 I'm not castigating anyone, just in my opinion and my thoughts, i don't give a shyte if the season is null and void, played on into August or whatever. Though over zealous posters saying it must be concluded get on my titts.

The thread title....

 

 

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2 minutes ago, prowl said:

We won't know the truth until later but epidemiologist have been watching China closely and seem to believe the credibility of the figures. I trust the Chinese figures more than the Italian at this stage. The Italian death rate is too high in relation to the number of confirmed cases. They seem to be under reporting infection rates.

 

South Korea is very on the ball with the highest testing rate in the world. They haven't brought in total osolation like China and have got infection rates down. Whether they stay down is a different matter.

 

The W.H.O. have been monitoring the China position but have always, when questioned, made sure caveats were included about the relliability of Chinese data. They have been asked the question at several news conferences and have never 100% committed to confirming they believe the data to be accurate. Dr Tedros is a known communist and long term friend of Xi jinping. Most independent commentators doubt his true independence and believe that he has acted as a mouthpiece for the CPC.

 

Interestingly, a guy that posts Youtube videos has always been adamant that the figures are unreliable. I say interestingly because he is a long term expat in Shenzhen, China and his wife is a practicing doctor in a Chinese hospital. It would appear that the medical professionals in China have severe doubts about the data accuracy. I also get the same impression from personal contacts of mine that live in China and state that the picture on the ground is somewhat different to the official narrative put out by the government. Something that I have heard from various sources is that doctors have been allocated quotas related to reported deaths and once that figure is exceeded, they have to record a different cause of death. That has also been widely reported for deaths outside Wuhan City.

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22 hours ago, handworth52 said:

sorry I meant antibiotics wouldn't be able to . 

Good o. I'm a little sensitive to it, I work with a lot of eastern Europeans who are always thinking they cure everything!

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On 13/03/2020 at 10:44, gingerknob1 said:

Season will not finish is my thoughts, by 4th April will be worse

 

Ominously it's also in the opening lines of George Orwell's  dystopian masterpiece Nineteen Eighty-Four and it's also my birthday too :ph34r:WTF:lol

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1 hour ago, prowl said:

Are you hard of reading. I used government statistics of CONFIRMED cases (FACTS) and used statistics produced by government scientists and epidemiologosts in China and Italy. Last Thursday I used these facts to project forward an estimation of of the likely numbers of cases. (mathematics). Those figures have  proved to be very close the the latest government figures (MORE FACTS).

 

You wanted facts I've given you them. My methodology has proved accurate so far so looking forward 3 days I've coninued my projection and used another FACT (confirmed cases to real infection rates from China and Italy), to give you a picture of how many people will be infected on Tuesday alone.

 

FACTS, YOU WANT FACTS? YOU CAN'T DEAL WITH THE FACTS.

FFS right I’ll explain again 

 

You are passing YOUR projections over as facts. Are you a scientist? If so I’d be more inclined to agree with you 

 

You may have been fortunate and hit your projections on a few occasions, but let’s see how the next few weeks roll out before patting yourself on the back too hard,  mr scientist 

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