FreshOwl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 hour ago, prowl said: Are you hard of reading. I used government statistics of CONFIRMED cases (FACTS) and used statistics produced by government scientists and epidemiologosts in China and Italy. Last Thursday I used these facts to project forward an estimation of of the likely numbers of cases. (mathematics). Those figures have proved to be very close the the latest government figures (MORE FACTS). You wanted facts I've given you them. My methodology has proved accurate so far so looking forward 3 days I've coninued my projection and used another FACT (confirmed cases to real infection rates from China and Italy), to give you a picture of how many people will be infected on Tuesday alone. FACTS, YOU WANT FACTS? YOU CAN'T DEAL WITH THE FACTS. FFS right I’ll explain again You are passing YOUR projections over as facts. Are you a scientist? If so I’d be more inclined to agree with you You may have been fortunate and hit your projections on a few occasions, but let’s see how the next few weeks roll out before patting yourself on the back too hard, mr scientist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Horse Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Isn't killing the host a tactical error for a virus? Surely the virus should aim to keep the hosts alive so it can then transmit and reproduce elsewhere more effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Night-Owl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, The Horse said: Isn't killing the host a tactical error for a virus? Surely the virus should aim to keep the hosts alive so it can then transmit and reproduce elsewhere more effectively. I keep thinking it's going to mutate into something worse and create an outbreak of zombies but then again, looking at the panic buying in supermarkets and stuff, it already looks like we're among a plague of zombies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOwl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 11 minutes ago, The Horse said: Isn't killing the host a tactical error for a virus? Surely the virus should aim to keep the hosts alive so it can then transmit and reproduce elsewhere more effectively. It is, but biology isn't perfect and the virus isn't that smart! Also, it looks like it takes a couple of weeks from infection before the immune system succumbs. That's long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Horse Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, StudentOwl said: It is, but biology isn't perfect and the virus isn't that smart! Also, it looks like it takes a couple of weeks from infection before the immune system succumbs. That's long enough Sounds like Millwall fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 41 minutes ago, FreshOwl said: FFS right I’ll explain again You are passing YOUR projections over as facts. Are you a scientist? If so I’d be more inclined to agree with you You may have been fortunate and hit your projections on a few occasions, but let’s see how the next few weeks roll out before patting yourself on the back too hard, mr scientist Lets see your projections. proving it will all be over in 2 months. Don't forget the facts. If you don't want to look at the reality that is entirely your choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@owlstalk Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Im in an at risk group so can’t afford to get this virus at all. My partner has been sent to work from home, some of the staff there have been laid off, and those left could be forced to go part time and the lay off clause in contracts could be invoked. The whole business could go under in less than a few months (Business is import and sales of goods from Italy, mostly made in Venice). My mother in law has one lung and is ill, over seventy, and would no way survive even a mild attack from this virus. Worrying times.. How are you guys? Anyone in similar situation? Owlstalk Shop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshOwl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, prowl said: Lets see your projections. proving it will all be over in 2 months. Don't forget the facts. If you don't want to look at the reality that is entirely your choice. Well we don’t know if it’ll be reality yet do we? That’s my whole point 5m projected deaths, so why hasn’t there been anything close to that in China since last autumn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshOwl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, @owlstalk said: Im in an at risk group so can’t afford to get this virus at all. My partner has been sent to work from home, some of the staff there have been laid off, and those left could be forced to go part time and the lay off clause in contracts could be invoked. The whole business could go under in less than a few months (Business is import and sales of goods from Italy, mostly made in Venice). My mother in law has one lung and is ill, over seventy, and would no way survive even a mild attack from this virus. Worrying times.. How are you guys? Anyone in similar situation? My dad lives in Colombia and is currently mid-flight to Madrid, he’s been told he’ll be able to get a flight to the UK from there but who knows what the situation will be once he gets there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costello 77 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 A gut full of worries but I feel it shouldn't be on view.. the hardest part is keeping your anxiety under control for the sake of others.. Thank god I was born British. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 hour ago, FreshOwl said: Well we don’t know if it’ll be reality yet do we? That’s my whole point 5m projected deaths, so why hasn’t there been anything close to that in China since last autumn? You said it would be done in 2 months. Facts please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cognacbarnowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 I've just been for a walk in the countryside and was stunned by the silence. Then I realised that there are no planes in the sky. In this day and age you wouldn't notice the noise that they generate because you're so used to it. But by god you notice it when it isn't there. I've also learned more about the virus in this fred than anywhere else, FFS. Thanks lads n lasses. And keep safe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@owlstalk Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, Costello 77 said: A gut full of worries but I feel it shouldn't be on view.. the hardest part is keeping your anxiety under control for the sake of others.. Thank god I was born British. Sharing experience is reassuring to others who may be in similar circumstances Owlstalk Shop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costello 77 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 13 minutes ago, @owlstalk said: Sharing experience is reassuring to others who may be in similar circumstances Absolutely but with absolute icy calmness and facts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 hour ago, @owlstalk said: Im in an at risk group so can’t afford to get this virus at all. My partner has been sent to work from home, some of the staff there have been laid off, and those left could be forced to go part time and the lay off clause in contracts could be invoked. The whole business could go under in less than a few months (Business is import and sales of goods from Italy, mostly made in Venice). My mother in law has one lung and is ill, over seventy, and would no way survive even a mild attack from this virus. Worrying times.. How are you guys? Anyone in similar situation? My wifes parents and my parents all passed away in the last 5 years so that is a worry we don't have. I'm 65 and have health issues which make me high risk, so does my wife. Hopefully we can avoid this virus but if not there's not much we can do other than ride it out and hope for the best. We are fortunate to live in the country with a big garden. For us at least we can get out of the house without risk of infection. People who live in small houses and flats aren't so lucky. I am worried about my neighbours, they are all good friends and older than us. if they get it I know I'm going to have to help them as much as I can. Hopefully they can avoid it. There's only so much you can do then you just have to let nature take it's course. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Costello 77 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, prowl said: My wifes parents and my parents all passed away in the last 5 years so that is a worry we don't have. I'm 65 and have health issues which make me high risk, so does my wife. Hopefully we can avoid this virus but if not there's not much we can do other than ride it out and hope for the best. We are fortunate to live in the country with a big garden. For us at least we can get out of the house without risk of infection. People who live in small houses and flats aren't so lucky. I am worried about my neighbours, they are all good friends and older than us. if they get it I know I'm going to have to help them as much as I can. Hopefully they can avoid it. There's only so much you can do then you just have to let nature take it's course. You're the best prowl.. I'm going to do what I can for as long as I can and then hopefully heal and go again.. with this spirit we'll prevail..btw a brave and sensible last paragraph..god bless.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crookesowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 The media seem to miss out the tens (hundreds?) of thousands that recover absolutely fine - including those in their 70s and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mkowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 hour ago, @owlstalk said: Im in an at risk group so can’t afford to get this virus at all. My partner has been sent to work from home, some of the staff there have been laid off, and those left could be forced to go part time and the lay off clause in contracts could be invoked. The whole business could go under in less than a few months (Business is import and sales of goods from Italy, mostly made in Venice). My mother in law has one lung and is ill, over seventy, and would no way survive even a mild attack from this virus. Worrying times.. How are you guys? Anyone in similar situation? Both parents and step parents are over 80. Dad had a kidney transplant 10 plus years ago and is frankly wearing out all round. Over 50 so raises the game a bit I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mkowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 In relation to the point above perhaps on of the issues in Italy and Spain is that there is a lot of flats / apartments as a fairly standard way of living - so more communal areas that as heavy traffic from people. Just a thought - certainly not immune out here in the sticks but you see less people and easier to avoid day to day contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prowl Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just been sent this by a friend. You might need to go through the free access. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ It is a great example of how social distancing can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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