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fatbloke no1

Do bookmakers know something

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You can see it on Betfair most clearly. This is a very lightly traded market indeed. 

 

None of us has enough information to compute but let's say 5% chance of the league mandating relegation. 50pc chance of a big points deduction and 20pc chance that if that happens we get relegated. None of those assumptions are outrageous though all are open to debate. If you think they're broadly reasonable, 14s is a long price. 

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15 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Yeah, because that's Chansiri's modus operandi, isn't it?

 

:duntmatter:


Yeah but the bookies aren’t going to risk keeping odds at 250-1 on the chance that our eccentric owner won’t sell players after we are hit with a heavy fine, relegation and the possibility that players will want to leave for free in May

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Nah. As per bookies just react on punters, they know fizz all.

 

If they knew something we'd be a lot shorter than 14s. Be around 3/1.

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They seem to have taken us from any betting lists related to relegation along with Leeds and West Brom lol

 

Edit that is on Betfairs Sportsbook and not the Exchange

Edited by Ronnie Starling

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22 minutes ago, Birley Owl 1867 said:

Nah. As per bookies just react on punters, they know fizz all.

 

If they knew something we'd be a lot shorter than 14s. Be around 3/1.


exactly. These markets are very fragile, the slightest movement (a few £10 bets) can see odds change significantly. It always happens when a new manager is imminent. 
 

Having said that, if you got 100/1 a few weeks ago then we’ll done. 

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With the EFL charge and the suggestions of up to a 21 points deduction, it is hardly a surprise that a few have taken a punt on us. 

 

Honestly, I believe that is the extent of it. 

 

I think people often give bookies far too much credit, particulary in the sense of them being ITK. 

 

Heck - remember the managerial odds a few months back? 

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57 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

Yes, but we're less than halfway through the season.

 

We're currently on track to achieve 74 points by the end of the season. Even the 53 points we'd have after a 21 points deduction would see us comfortably clear of relegation.

 

Peterborough were relegated with 54 points in 2014 so I'd hardly call 53 points 'comfortably clear of relegation'. 

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8 minutes ago, roaminowl said:

Peterborough were relegated with 54 points in 2014 so I'd hardly call 53 points 'comfortably clear of relegation'. 

 

 

That was the highest ever points tally for a relegated team in Championship history. It's always possible this could be a record-breaking season though, I suppose.

 

53 points would have been enough to avoid relegation in nine of the last ten seasons, so I'll not be losing too much sleep over it.

 

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1 hour ago, WelshOwl74 said:

If people are happy to make money off Wednesday been relegated ,crack on 

 

And that's another reason, filthy habit.

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I’m still waiting for the Rowett appointment the bookies odds promised us a few months ago.

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1 hour ago, Owls-Fan said:


Maybe bookies are also cautious about a fire sale in January leaving us in the bottom 3 and the best players leaving. 

 

 

:duntmatter:

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2 hours ago, bigrbuk said:

 

You do realise betting on something doesn't mean you want it to happen right? Nor will it make it happen, It just makes you richer if it does. Leave emotion at the door if you're gonna gamble.

I can see this been a divisive point ,but me personally would never bet against weds ,I would have to win at least 6 figures to even consider it. I cant stand leeds or pigs but I would bet on them if it meant me winning a few quid even though id hate them to have any success. 

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Where did the 21 point deduction come from? Surely, 12 will be the maximum.

 

EFL will be setting a dangerous and ridiculous precedent if they hike the points deduction up too high.

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3 hours ago, bigrbuk said:

 

You do realise betting on something doesn't mean you want it to happen right? Nor will it make it happen, It just makes you richer if it does. Leave emotion at the door if you're gonna gamble.

Betting should really about trying to win money (unless you are an addict or an occasional punter) - Something you think will happen and the odds are right.

I’ve been lucky enough to back us in our last 2 games. But I won’t back us in every game cos we’re not Liverpool, we’re not even West Brom. But it doesn’t mean I don’t want us to win.

 

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Didn't Luton get hammered with a 30pt deduction for something but I can't remember why

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Used a £10 free bet at 100/1 when the news broke about the charge.  

 

Be absolutely delighted not to get anywhere near it coming in. 

 

Contrary to what some say the bet has no bearing on what happens! 

 

I was been offered £15 cash out last week but now says suspended. 

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Had a look to see if there's any value on finishing top six against getting relegated which would be all to do with how our case goes. Stand out wheels on the bus dropping off bet though, is weeds to finish outside the top six. 100-1. Worth a couple of quid if you count any of their fans as mates. 

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