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HirstWhoScoredIt

After 15 matches its almost set in stone - Season 5

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3 minutes ago, addedtime said:

So...in summary.....?

 

We need at least another 24 points from our next 15 matches to stay on course for a top 6 finish.

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Superb stats. Love it. 

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That is an impressive piece of work sir, every credit.

 

I hope youre wrong and we are promoted automatically by february but impressive all the same! ;-)

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This thread has broken my heart several times already.

 

The OP is like that lass you bump into from time to time and gives brilliant blowjobs but the gap inbetween meetings is very disappointing.

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6 minutes ago, sonofbert2 said:

This thread has broken my heart several times already.

 

The OP is like that lass you bump into from time to time and gives brilliant blowjobs but the gap inbetween meetings is very disappointing.


Hands-up who thought he was going to talk about the gap between her teeth?

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ha, I was wondering the other day if I could dig up the old version of this thread. Thanks for this.

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The summary, that 24 points from our next 15 puts us in great shape, should put in perspective any defeats and draws in these massively long seasons.

 

Any of these will do:-

 

P15. W7. D3. L5

 

P15. W6. D6. L3

 

We don’t need to be amazing. Just reasonably effective.

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8 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

The summary, that 24 points from our next 15 puts us in great shape, should put in perspective any defeats and draws in these massively long seasons.

 

Any of these will do:-

 

P15. W7. D3. L5

 

P15. W6. D6. L3

 

We don’t need to be amazing. Just reasonably effective.

 

Try telling that to more than half of the profiteroles on here.

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Great stuff @HirstWhoScoredIt, love it!

 

If you don't already know there is a great site called FiveThirtyEight.com created by Nate Silver. They do a very similar thing and take in to account all sorts of other data. Highly recommend taking a look if you love sports predictions. They update each week and you can go back and see the predictions from any recent date. They currently have Stoke sneaking out of the relegation zone and Boro going down with Luton and Barnsley. It's mediocre reading for us though unfortunately.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

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So basically. A third of the way into the season if you’re playing well and winning you’re in with a chance of promotion. If you’re playing poo and losing you’re in with a chance of going down. If you’re doing neither your season is over. Pack your bags for your summer holiday 

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Love this thread - new and improved too

 

Thanks very much for compiling, ill be firmly fixed on those 24+ points.

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Just had a quick guess on our next 15.

 

W7

D4

L4

 

25 Points

 

AKA we are going up

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15 minutes ago, Matt_1 said:

Just had a quick guess on our next 15.

 

W7

D4

L4

 

25 Points

 

AKA we are going up

 

This is also great analysis - much appreciated.

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H v Swansea - Win

A v WBA - Lose

H v Birmingham - Draw

A v Charlton - Draw

H v Brentford - Draw

A v Derby - Draw

A v Forest - Win

H v Bristol C - Win

A v Stoke - Lose

H v Cardiff - Draw

H v Hull - Win

A v Leeds - Lose

H v Birmingham - Draw

A v Wigan - Win

H v Millwall - Win

 

W6 D6 L3 Pts 24

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1 hour ago, CF_Owl said:

Great stuff @HirstWhoScoredIt, love it!

 

If you don't already know there is a great site called FiveThirtyEight.com created by Nate Silver. They do a very similar thing and take in to account all sorts of other data. Highly recommend taking a look if you love sports predictions. They update each week and you can go back and see the predictions from any recent date. They currently have Stoke sneaking out of the relegation zone and Boro going down with Luton and Barnsley. It's mediocre reading for us though unfortunately.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

 

538 is trying to extrapolate from in-play stats, as opposed to past league patterns. I don't think having us as the 10th best team in the league with a 21% chance of the playoffs is unduly harsh. We'll need to slightly overperform to make it, I think. But it's certainly not impossible.

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2 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

H v Swansea - Win

A v WBA - Lose

H v Birmingham - Draw

A v Charlton - Draw

H v Brentford - Draw

A v Derby - Draw

A v Forest - Win

H v Bristol C - Win

A v Stoke - Lose

H v Cardiff - Draw

H v Hull - Win

A v Leeds - Lose

H v Birmingham - Draw

A v Wigan - Win

H v Millwall - Win

 

W6 D6 L3 Pts 24


That's got a spell of 5 games without a win, and see us borderline bottom half just before Christmas.

Imagine how well that will go down

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