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After 15 matches its almost set in stone - Season 5

HirstWhoScoredIt
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HirstWhoScoredIt Grand Master

HirstWhoScoredIt

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If you have no interest in statistics stop reading here.

Please do not spoil the readability of the thread by quoting the opening post.

Summary for those that do not want to read the Stats and Research

I have posted this topic for the last four seasons (this time my research is over 20 seasons rather than 10) and shown that after 15 matches most of the outcomes have already been decided.  Or more to the point it has been decided what will not happen.

Therefore, already this season, we know that most likely:-

  • The top 2 will come from WBA, Leeds, Preston, Swansea and Forest.  It is highly unlikely that anybody outside of this five will get automatic promotion.

  • The top 6 will come from the above 5, Bristol City, Wednesday, Fulham and QPR. Charlton, Hull, Birmingham, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby have outside chances.

  • The bottom three will come from Barnsley, Stoke, Boro, Wigan, Luton or Reading.

 

The Past 20 Seasons

Relegation

  • 15 teams have had fewer than 10 points after 15 matches.  13 of those 15 teams have finished in the bottom four and 11 of them have been relegated.

  • 56 of the 60 teams to be relegated had fewer than 18 points after 15 matches.

  • Only two teams with over 20 points after 15 matches have been relegated in the past 20 seasons.  Luton in 2006/07 (22 points after 15 matches) and Wolves in 2012/13 (21 points after 15 matches).

Play Offs

  • 90 of the 120 teams to finish in the top six have had at least 24 points after 15 matches.

  • Only 8 teams in the last 20 seasons have finished in the top 6 after having fewer than 20 points in the first 15 matches (8 out of 219 teams).

  • 25 of the 27 teams that have had more than 30 points have gone on to finish in the top 6.

  • The average amount of points required to finish 6th over the past 20 seasons has been exactly 74.

  • 72 points is often spoken about as the amount of points required for the play offs but this total would have missed out on 16 of the previous 20 seasons.

  • 80 points would have been sufficient to obtain a play off place in all of the last 20 seasons.

  • There have been only three seasons when more than 75 points has been required in the past 20 seasons (99/00, 14/15 & 16/17). 73-75 points have been the magic figure in 13 of the past 20 seasons – remarkably consistent.

  • The lowest points total to obtain a play off place was 68 (12/13).

 

Automatic Promotion

  • In the past 20 seasons, only 7 teams with fewer than 27 points after 15 matches have finished in the top 2.

  • 19 of the 27 teams that have had more than 30 points after 15 matches have achieved automatic promotion.

  • The team in 2nd has finished with an average of 87.9 points in the last 20 seasons. 

  • The lowest total to achieve automatic promotion is 79 points (07/08 and 12/13).

  • The highest points total achieved by the 2nd placed team is 93 (13/14 and 16/17)

  • In 12 of the past 20 seasons you have needed at least 88 points.

Points

% top 6

% top 2

<20

4%

1%

20-23

19%

2%

24-26

47%

5%

27-30

62%

25%

30+

93%

70%

 

This Season

Relegation

  • Barnsley and Stoke have 9 and 8 points respectively.  Over the past 20 seasons, 73% of teams with fewer than 10 points after 15 matches have been relegated.

  • It could be particularly difficult for them this season as teams at the top are concertinaed due to no teams running away with it.  As such, with all teams taking points off each other, everybody but the bottom four are taking at least one point per match.  Blackburn and Millwall are only 16th and 17th but they are already on 18 points.  Therefore, it looks likely that the points total for avoiding relegation could be quite high this season (average points for 21st place 48.9).

Play Offs & Automatics

  • No team has over 30 points this season.  This has only happened in four of the past 20 seasons.

  • Looking at the spread of points, it looks highly unlikely that this will be a season where you can sneak in to the play offs with a low total.  A team at the top is not taking a large share of the cake. Looking at previous seasons points totals after 15 matches and at the end of the season, it looks likely that the 6th team may achieve at least 75 points (above the average of 74 points).

  • Conversely, the points total required to gain automatic promotion looks like it could be relatively low.  The second placed team has obtained 88 points in 12 of the last 20 seasons.  This season, it appears likely that it could be less than that or they would need to get less than that (i.e. the third placed team will not get an historically high total).

 

Predictions

Taking the past history and then by adjusting the figures on a pro-rata basis to take account of this seasons spread of points, the following table can be calculated showing the percentage chances of each team getting in the top 2, top 6 or relegated.  Before anybody says it, this is done to the nearest percentage point, so for instance I am not saying that there is a 0% chance of Wednesday getting relegated or Blackburn coming in the top 6, I am saying that the chances are less than 0.5%.

   

Pts

top 2

top 6

Relegation

1

West Brom

30

41%

73%

0%

2

Preston

28

33%

66%

0%

3

Leeds

28

33%

66%

0%

4

Swansea

28

33%

66%

0%

5

Forest (played 14)

25

27%

59%

0%

6

Bristol C

25

12%

50%

0%

7

WEDNESDAY

24

6%

42%

0%

8

Fulham

23

3%

34%

0%

9

QPR

23

3%

34%

0%

10

Charlton

22

2%

21%

1%

11

Hull

22

2%

21%

1%

12

Birmingham

22

2%

21%

1%

13

Brentford

21

1%

13%

1%

14

Cardifff

21

1%

13%

1%

15

Derby

21

1%

13%

1%

16

Blackburn

18

0%

3%

7%

17

Millwall

18

0%

3%

7%

18

Huddersfield

16

0%

1%

16%

19

Reading (played 14)

15

0%

1%

16%

20

Wigan

15

0%

0%

23%

21

Luton

14

0%

0%

33%

22

Boro

12

0%

0%

50%

23

Barnsley

9

0%

0%

69%

24

Stoke

8

0%

0%

73%

 

Predictions

  • It is statistically unlikely that anybody other than Blackburn, Millwall, Huddersfield, Reading, Wigan, Luton, Boro, Barnsley or Stoke will be relegated.

  • Blackburn and Millwall only have a 6% chance each of being relegated, therefore for prediction purposes they can be ruled out.

  • Huddersfield are the next least likely to be relegated and are on an upward trajectory following the appointment of the Cowley’s.  Therefore, they can too be ruled out.

  • It appears that Stoke and Barnsley will most likely be relegated with one from Reading, Wigan, Luton, and Boro joining them.  The most likely team to join them is Boro (oh dear Mr Gibson!). 

  • Stoke obviously have a fine squad and cash to spend therefore a new manager may turnaround their fortunes. If they do so, Luton, Wigan and Reading will be looking nervously over their shoulders.  Even at this early stage, it looks highly unlikely that anybody else other than Stoke, Barnsley, Boro, Wigan, Luton and Reading will be relegated.

  • It is highly unlikely that Blackburn, Millwall, Huddersfield, Reading, Wigan, Luton, Boro, Barnsley or Stoke will make the play offs.

  • Fulham, QPR, Charlton, Hull, Birmingham, Brentford, Cardiff and Derby have it all to do on an individual basis as they have less than 24 points which puts them at a statistical disadvantage.  However, collectively their chances are better as in 15 of the last 20 seasons, at least one team from this group (20-23 points) has managed to achieve a play off place.  Fulham have the best squad and the most points from this group.

  • West Brom, Leeds, Preston, Swansea and Forest (depends on outcome of their 15th match – used their average points per match for the calculations) are each odds on to come in the top 6 – with the former two taken as favourites to come in the top 2.  It will be interesting to see if Preston can hold onto Alex Neil and if they can’t the impact that this has on them.

  • Bristol City and Wednesday are statistically the teams that would appear to be the closest challengers.

  • West Brom are the most likely to get automatic promotion, Leeds look the next most likely.  It is highly unlikely that any body but West Brom, Preston, Leeds, Swansea or Forest will be promoted automatically.

What's next?

If you are on less that 44 points after 30 matches you can totally forget about the top 6!

You are highly unlikely to make the top 6 if you have less than 48 points after 30 matches.

Therefore, Wednesday must get at least 24 points from the next 15 matches.

 

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Holmowl Grand Master

Holmowl

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6 minutes ago, sonofbert2 said:

This thread has broken my heart several times already.

 

The OP is like that lass you bump into from time to time and gives brilliant blowjobs but the gap inbetween meetings is very disappointing.


Hands-up who thought he was going to talk about the gap between her teeth?

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Holmowl Grand Master

Holmowl

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The summary, that 24 points from our next 15 puts us in great shape, should put in perspective any defeats and draws in these massively long seasons.

 

Any of these will do:-

 

P15. W7. D3. L5

 

P15. W6. D6. L3

 

We don’t need to be amazing. Just reasonably effective.

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sonofbert2 Grand Master

sonofbert2

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8 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

The summary, that 24 points from our next 15 puts us in great shape, should put in perspective any defeats and draws in these massively long seasons.

 

Any of these will do:-

 

P15. W7. D3. L5

 

P15. W6. D6. L3

 

We don’t need to be amazing. Just reasonably effective.

 

Try telling that to more than half of the profiteroles on here.

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CF_Owl Enthusiast

CF_Owl

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Great stuff @HirstWhoScoredIt, love it!

 

If you don't already know there is a great site called FiveThirtyEight.com created by Nate Silver. They do a very similar thing and take in to account all sorts of other data. Highly recommend taking a look if you love sports predictions. They update each week and you can go back and see the predictions from any recent date. They currently have Stoke sneaking out of the relegation zone and Boro going down with Luton and Barnsley. It's mediocre reading for us though unfortunately.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

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Plonk Grand Master

Plonk

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So basically. A third of the way into the season if you’re playing well and winning you’re in with a chance of promotion. If you’re playing poo and losing you’re in with a chance of going down. If you’re doing neither your season is over. Pack your bags for your summer holiday 

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WC1Owl Mentor

WC1Owl

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1 hour ago, CF_Owl said:

Great stuff @HirstWhoScoredIt, love it!

 

If you don't already know there is a great site called FiveThirtyEight.com created by Nate Silver. They do a very similar thing and take in to account all sorts of other data. Highly recommend taking a look if you love sports predictions. They update each week and you can go back and see the predictions from any recent date. They currently have Stoke sneaking out of the relegation zone and Boro going down with Luton and Barnsley. It's mediocre reading for us though unfortunately.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/

 

538 is trying to extrapolate from in-play stats, as opposed to past league patterns. I don't think having us as the 10th best team in the league with a 21% chance of the playoffs is unduly harsh. We'll need to slightly overperform to make it, I think. But it's certainly not impossible.

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BowOwl Proficient

BowOwl

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2 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

H v Swansea - Win

A v WBA - Lose

H v Birmingham - Draw

A v Charlton - Draw

H v Brentford - Draw

A v Derby - Draw

A v Forest - Win

H v Bristol C - Win

A v Stoke - Lose

H v Cardiff - Draw

H v Hull - Win

A v Leeds - Lose

H v Birmingham - Draw

A v Wigan - Win

H v Millwall - Win

 

W6 D6 L3 Pts 24


That's got a spell of 5 games without a win, and see us borderline bottom half just before Christmas.

Imagine how well that will go down

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