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TodwickOwl

Attacking threat breakdown

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Found this online and thought it’s a decent bit of insight as we are almost a quarter way into the season:

 

Each graphic shows a club’s main attacking players: those who have:

  1. Featured for at least a quarter of their total pitch minutes in the league this season, and
  2. Taken an average of at least one shot per game.

The size of each player’s bubble is proportional to the percentage of possible minutes that they’ve played.

Each player’s bubble is plotted on a chart with the two axes working like this:

  • On the horizontal axis we have their goal threat, based on the “expected goals” value of shots taken per 90 minutes. This is effectively a measure of the combined quality of their goalscoring chances.
  • On the vertical axis we have their scoring rate, using a less abstract measure of actual number of goals scored per 90 minutes.

Both axes exclude penalties, as those can massively skew a player’s contribution away from the threat they pose from open play.

There’s a shaded “stripe” which indicates the long-term shot conversion rate of all finishers except the top and bottom 10%, so we can identify those whose performance may be unsustainable (i.e. unlikely to be repeated next season). If a player is above the stripe, they’re converting chances at a rate consistent with someone in the top 10% of finishers, and likewise a player below the line is in the worst 10%. Based on what we know about the specific player, we can therefore take a view on whether we expect their scoring rate to continue.

3E91F620-EF4F-4850-B4F8-2B2ED7D341F2.png

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So this proves that Fletcher can score goals then.

garymegson

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3 hours ago, TodwickOwl said:

Found this online and thought it’s a decent bit of insight as we are almost a quarter way into the season:

 

Each graphic shows a club’s main attacking players: those who have:

  1. Featured for at least a quarter of their total pitch minutes in the league this season, and
  2. Taken an average of at least one shot per game.

The size of each player’s bubble is proportional to the percentage of possible minutes that they’ve played.

Each player’s bubble is plotted on a chart with the two axes working like this:

  • On the horizontal axis we have their goal threat, based on the “expected goals” value of shots taken per 90 minutes. This is effectively a measure of the combined quality of their goalscoring chances.
  • On the vertical axis we have their scoring rate, using a less abstract measure of actual number of goals scored per 90 minutes.

Both axes exclude penalties, as those can massively skew a player’s contribution away from the threat they pose from open play.

There’s a shaded “stripe” which indicates the long-term shot conversion rate of all finishers except the top and bottom 10%, so we can identify those whose performance may be unsustainable (i.e. unlikely to be repeated next season). If a player is above the stripe, they’re converting chances at a rate consistent with someone in the top 10% of finishers, and likewise a player below the line is in the worst 10%. Based on what we know about the specific player, we can therefore take a view on whether we expect their scoring rate to continue.

3E91F620-EF4F-4850-B4F8-2B2ED7D341F2.png

 

 

So it's true then, penalties and tap ins dun't count, FFS :bullen:  Yet another "Owlstalk myth" proven to be true. 

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Posted (edited)

I interpret that as Fletcher and Harris (to a lesser degree) overperforming. Reach, Bannan and Murphy all slightly underperforming in terms of goals. 

 

It does all beg the question though... How are expected goals calculated as a measure? Seems a bit like a metric inside a metric to me and therefore not really telling us anything we didn't already know. 

 

Just to clarify that question further. The horizontal axis has expected goals as the value of shots per 90 mins. Surely Fletcher has more shots than 1 per 3 games which is what this is currently telling me! 

Edited by Anthndav
Clarification

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1 hour ago, Anthndav said:

I interpret that as Fletcher and Harris (to a lesser degree) overperforming. Reach, Bannan and Murphy all slightly underperforming in terms of goals. 

 

It does all beg the question though... How are expected goals calculated as a measure? Seems a bit like a metric inside a metric to me and therefore not really telling us anything we didn't already know. 

 

Just to clarify that question further. The horizontal axis has expected goals as the value of shots per 90 mins. Surely Fletcher has more shots than 1 per 3 games which is what this is currently telling me


I think it’s indicating the expected goals based on chances/shots he’s taking. So based on the chances that have fallen to him he’s been expected to score a goal roughly every 3 games.
 

However he’s out performing by scoring chances that he’s not expected to score from and actually scoring at rate of goal every 2 games. 

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Makes you wonder how anyone ever knew who was playing well before we had all these very useful stats 

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51 minutes ago, torres said:

Makes you wonder how anyone ever knew who was playing well before we had all these very useful stats 

They were the good old days when people just relied on there eyes to tell them what was going on.

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STATS - MORE STATS. My glass is half full, but yours is half empty.

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