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cookeh

The run-in table (that one with all the colours!)

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Soo.. updated after the latest fixtures.

 

Things not looking good, it's fair to say. Villa holding course and Bristol with a massive win over West Brom.

 

Bristol City's game in hand means we're really 7 points behind, rather than 6.
 

Two possible scenario's tho..

Villa lose to Bristol City, then could then lose to Leeds and Norwich in the final games, which would give us a tiny opening.
or
Bristol win against Villa, We beat them, then we just pray they drop points somewhere else as well, Derby or Hull maybe.

Bristol have fewer wins, but Villa have the tougher fixtures. Really not sure who we should want to get a result.
Probably best to hope for the draw and leave the door open on both fronts.

 

So it's not done yet.. It's just going to take some immense form from us and a little bit of fortune.

 

I still think we're the only 3 horses in the race, Villa, Bristol, us.

Boro have 1 point from 15 at home.
Derby 1 point from 15 away.
Hull 0 from 15 away.
Forrest 2 from 15 away.
While Preston are just a bit further back and not doing quite as well as us.

 

One truth from all of this is.. every game really is a must win for us now.

runin04-11.png

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I think we will miss out by 3 or 4 points. Plus GD is crap

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I thought top ten would be a good return for our current form since xmas...but finishing 7th would be very disappointing as you start to look at the individual results where we lost it..

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Love it mate ... I’m still maintaining 71 points will be enough 

 

One point mate, It looks like you’ve put our Villa defeat in the away game form ... how does that affect the overall tally?

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Hirstys Salopettes said:

Love it mate ... I’m still maintaining 71 points will be enough 

 

One point mate, It looks like you’ve put our Villa defeat in the away game form ... how does that affect the overall tally?

 

 

There's no way Bristol City are only taking 6 points from a possible 18 on current form, or Villa 5 from 15? We'd have to pass one of them and they play each other. 

 

Either one of them gets 3 points (meaning only 2 more points if Villa or 3 for Bristol) or they draw and Villa need only 4 points from Bolton, Millwall, Leeds and Norwich or

 

Bristol only need 5 points from Reading, Us (it then becomes moot anyway), Derby, Millwall, Hull. 

 

We could win all 5 remaining games and I don't think it'd be enough. 

 

We're done.  

Edited by Manwithastick
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11 minutes ago, Manwithastick said:

 

 

There's no way Bristol City are only taking 6 points from a possible 18 on current form, or Villa 5 from 15? We'd have to pass one of them and they play each other. 

 

Either one of them gets 3 points (meaning only 2 more points if Villa or 3 for Bristol) or they draw and Villa need only 4 points from Bolton, Millwall, Leeds and Norwich or

 

Bristol only need 5 points from Reading, Us (it then becomes moot anyway), Derby, Millwall, Hull. 

 

We could win all 5 remaining games and I don't think it'd be enough. 

 

We're done.  

 

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just done my predictions on that and reckon....

Villa 74

Brissle 73

Sheeps 71

Boro 70

Owls 69

Preston 65

Trees 65

Dull 61

 

so 8th spot finish

drew too many lately but what a fantastic effort since Dross went.

Roll on next season. think will be top 6 all season

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Sorry to be a bit picky, because I love this sort of analysis, but:

 

Our home form: we lost to Villa.

Your two scenarios: Villa lose to Bristol, or Bristol win against Villa?

Bristol's game in hand means we're effectively 9 points behind. Ten if you add on goal difference.

 

Assuming we win all our games, including v BC, we need BC to lose against Villa and drop another 4 points in their remaining four games. If we drop points, they have more leeway.

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to be in with any realistic chance we would have to win all 5 games

massive ask is that n unrealistic with top 2 to play and brissle in form.

then rest results need to go our way too.

so basically absolutely no chance!!!

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1 hour ago, cookeh said:

Soo.. updated after the latest fixtures.

 

Things not looking good, it's fair to say. Villa holding course and Bristol with a massive win over West Brom.

 

Bristol City's game in hand means we're really 7 points behind, rather than 6.
 

Two possible scenario's tho..

Villa lose to Bristol City, then could then lose to Leeds and Norwich in the final games, which would give us a tiny opening.
or
Bristol win against Villa, We beat them, then we just pray they drop points somewhere else as well, Derby or Hull maybe.

Bristol have fewer wins, but Villa have the tougher fixtures. Really not sure who we should want to get a result.
Probably best to hope for the draw and leave the door open on both fronts.

 

So it's not done yet.. It's just going to take some immense form from us and a little bit of fortune.

 

I still think we're the only 3 horses in the race, Villa, Bristol, us.

Boro have 1 point from 15 at home.
Derby 1 point from 15 away.
Hull 0 from 15 away.
Forrest 2 from 15 away.
While Preston are just a bit further back and not doing quite as well as us.

 

One truth from all of this is.. every game really is a must win for us now.

runin04-11.png

 

Ken Jeong Cant See GIF - KenJeong CantSee ListOfPeopleITrust GIFs

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Manwithastick said:

 

 

There's no way Bristol City are only taking 6 points from a possible 18 on current form, or Villa 5 from 15? We'd have to pass one of them and they play each other. 

If Bristol lose to both us and Villa then that's 6 points from 12.

 

They've gotta play Derby too which isn't an easy game, and if they lose that then they have to get a win from the last 3 matches.

 

Reading held their own last night v Norwich and are fighting for the lives, Millwall are similar. The only one they will easily your think is Hull cos they'll be on their beach by then.

 

There's still a chance.

Edited by Birley Owl 1867
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1 hour ago, Peacenocchio said:

So our chances for a top 6 finish....

Screenshot_20190411-122538_Google.thumb.jpg.69e42aab3f526e070e1beaa6baa1fef6.jpg

We got no jobs, we got money.... our pets heads are falling off 

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Or Bristol City lose to Villa by a few goals as Villa are scoring for fun at the moment, we manage to beat Leeds and Match Bristol result on good Friday (Reading drew with the league leaders last night). We go into the game at Hillsborough 3 points behind them but they have a game in hand (away to Millwall in midweek - not a fixture I would call 3 points banker), we play them and win by 2-4 goals all of a sudden the goal difference between us in not an issue and we are level on points come Easter Monday separated by 1 or 2 goals difference. They then have a lot more pressure on them and we have seen some of the results when players are playing to not lose rather than playing to win.

 

They then have to play Derby at home, Millwall away and Hull City away in 8 days.

 

For me let see if we can turn over Leeds and then Norwich who are grinding out results rather than playing the football they were earlier in the season, the nerves will get to the young team when they are almost there.

 

But a loss in any of our remaining games and Bristol city win and the slim hopes we have will be gone. 

 

Lets enjoy it for as long as we still have a mathematical chance.

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As Steve Bruce keeps saying, while the chance is there, you've got to keep having a go.

 

Personally, I'd prefer Villa to win that game on Saturday then if Derby and ourselves can win

 

that'd put Bristol under a bit of pressure for when they play Reading.

 

Bristol's two games after that are us and Derby.

 

At the end of the day, all we can do is try to win each game for now.

 

Tough ask but we'll see.

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Oh F**k it. We're going to win our last 5 games and then see where we are? Believe in Bruce, you negative tw@ts lol

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Tables wrong.  You've got us winning 4 and drawing one of our last 5 homes games.  But we lost to Villa.

And you've got us down as losing our last away game.  We drew at Stoke. If the latest result is on the left, then Forest is wrong. They lost at Hillsbro on Tuesday.

 

Nice colours though. Can't see us doing it but it would be nice to finish 7th or 8th, if not.

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16 hours ago, Lincs Owl said:

Tables wrong.  You've got us winning 4 and drawing one of our last 5 homes games.  But we lost to Villa.

And you've got us down as losing our last away game.  We drew at Stoke. If the latest result is on the left, then Forest is wrong. They lost at Hillsbro on Tuesday.

 

Nice colours though. Can't see us doing it but it would be nice to finish 7th or 8th, if not.

 

I remember thinkings updating our stats was easy.. and it was.. cos i didnt. :D

 

actual 5s are:

WDWLW
10
DDDWD
7

 

Leaves us on 67.2 rather than 67.8.  Still 7th tho.

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Win all 5 games and I think we've made it on 74 points from Villa and FLDC on 73. With a fit squad and everyone available it would still be tough, but as it is it's a huge ask. Still, no harm in trying.

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