Championship Predictor

[Guest Ash76]

[frastheowl]

 

I said the other day, 70/71 points might be enough, and in all likelihood, we'd finish just shy of it. With this prediction, I've got it at 71, but we'd still finish just 2 pts short of the required amount. 

 

Expect Villa to have a strong finish. Smith has seemed to get their defence in shape of late, and the comeback of Grealish seems to have given them an extra dimension going forward. 

 

Everybody else, in and around the chasing pack, I expect to pretty much match each others results. 

 

In the run in, I've got:

Villa - 19 points - 2.1pts/game

Forest - 17 points - 1.9/game

Wednesday - 17 points - 1.9/game

Hull - 16 points - 1.8/game

Preston - 14 - 1.6/game

Derby - 14 points - 1.6/game

Bristol - 15 points - 1.5/game

Boro - 13 points - 1.3/game

 

So not much between any of the teams really, and in the end, the cushion a faltering Boro already have, will just about be enough to keep them in the playoffs. 

 

For anybodies interest, here's how I predicted our results to go:

 

Blackburn (H) - Win 2-0

Stoke (A) - Lose 1-2

Villa (H) - Draw 2-2

Forest (H) - Win 2-0

Leeds (A) - Lose 0-2

Norwich (A) - Win 2-1

Bristol (H) - Win 1-0

Preston (A) - Draw 1-1

QPR (H) - Win 3-2

[Mr Meadows]

22 minutes ago, Ash76 said:

 

Wednesday v Villa play off final

 

Big Steve's has last laugh

[alanharper]

I had us losing at Stoke, Norwich, Preston, drawing at home to Forest and Villa and away to Leeds, and beating Blackburn, Bristol C and QPR.

 

Too many draws and that lack of enough (fit) quality to turn some of those draws into wins will cost us in the end, although I'd have laughed at anybody even dreaming of the playoffs in early December.

[TodwickOwl]

In essence - I can see us losing against Leeds and Norwich as a given 

 

Villa and Preston are tricky

 

Rest I think we can win - still not enough 

[Dutch McLovin]

Mine didn't go so well:

 

#	Team		M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1		Norwich City	46	31	9	6	100:55	45	102
2		Leeds United	46	29	7	10	81:46	35	94
3		Sheffield United	46	25	10	11	75:44	31	85
4		West Bromwich Albion	46	21	14	11	84:59	25	77
5		Preston North End	46	20	14	12	74:58	16	74
6		Aston Villa	46	18	16	12	79:63	16	70
7		Derby County	46	18	16	12	58:53	5	70
8		Bristol City	45	19	12	14	59:48	11	69
9		Sheffield Wednesday	46	18	15	13	62:61	1	69
10		Middlesbrough FC	45	17	17	11	48:39	9	68
11		Nottingham Forest	46	17	15	14	64:52	12	66
12		Hull City	46	18	12	16	66:62	4	66
13		Brentford FC	45	18	11	16	74:58	16	65
14		Birmingham City	46	13	19	14	62:60	2	58
15		Swansea City	45	14	15	16	54:56	-2	57
16		Blackburn Rovers	46	14	14	18	56:68	-12	56
17		Stoke City	46	11	22	13	46:53	-7	55
18		Queens Park Rangers	46	12	11	23	47:72	-25	47
19		Reading FC	46	9	16	21	47:70	-23	43
20		Millwall FC	46	10	13	23	48:72	-24	43
21		Rotherham United	46	8	18	20	47:74	-27	42
22		Wigan Athletic	46	10	11	25	47:76	-29	41
23		Bolton Wanderers	46	9	10	27	29:68	-39	37
24		Ipswich Town	46	4	17	25	35:75	-40	29

[Ironman]

3 hours ago, danblakemore said:

m		M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1		Norwich City	46	30	10	6	93:51	42	100
2		Leeds United	46	28	8	10	74:43	31	92
3		Sheffield United	46	24	13	9	75:42	33	85
4		West Bromwich Albion	46	25	10	11	87:58	29	85
5		Brentford FC	45	20	11	14	73:54	19	71
6		Sheffield Wednesday	46	18	16	12	57:57	0	70
7		Aston Villa	46	17	18	11	76:62	14	69
8		Middlesbrough FC	45	18	15	12	47:36	11	69
9		Bristol City	45	18	14	13	56:47	9	68
10		Hull City	46	19	11	16	67:61	6	68
11		Derby County	46	18	14	14	55:52	3	68
12		Nottingham Forest	46	17	16	13	59:53	6	67
13		Preston North End	46	16	15	15	68:61	7	63
14		Stoke City	46	13	19	14	49:53	-4	58
15		Blackburn Rovers	46	15	13	18	58:67	-9	58
16		Birmingham City	46	13	16	17	62:63	-1	55
17		Queens Park Rangers	46	15	8	23	48:66	-18	53
18		Swansea City	45	14	9	22	50:57	-7	51
19		Rotherham United	46	11	16	19	48:72	-24	49
20		Wigan Athletic	46	12	9	25	47:71	-24	45
21		Millwall FC	46	10	11	25	45:67	-22	41
22		Reading FC	46	9	13	24	45:71	-26	40
23		Bolton Wanderers	46	9	9	28	30:69	-39	36
24		Ipswich Town	46	6	16	24	35:71	-36	34

 

Aufstieg

And there’s the money shot 

[OxonOwl]

3 hours ago, danblakemore said:

m		M.	W.	D.	L.	Goals	Dif.	Pt.
1		Norwich City	46	30	10	6	93:51	42	100
2		Leeds United	46	28	8	10	74:43	31	92
3		Sheffield United	46	24	13	9	75:42	33	85
4		West Bromwich Albion	46	25	10	11	87:58	29	85
5		Brentford FC	45	20	11	14	73:54	19	71
6		Sheffield Wednesday	46	18	16	12	57:57	0	70
7		Aston Villa	46	17	18	11	76:62	14	69
8		Middlesbrough FC	45	18	15	12	47:36	11	69
9		Bristol City	45	18	14	13	56:47	9	68
10		Hull City	46	19	11	16	67:61	6	68
11		Derby County	46	18	14	14	55:52	3	68
12		Nottingham Forest	46	17	16	13	59:53	6	67
13		Preston North End	46	16	15	15	68:61	7	63
14		Stoke City	46	13	19	14	49:53	-4	58
15		Blackburn Rovers	46	15	13	18	58:67	-9	58
16		Birmingham City	46	13	16	17	62:63	-1	55
17		Queens Park Rangers	46	15	8	23	48:66	-18	53
18		Swansea City	45	14	9	22	50:57	-7	51
19		Rotherham United	46	11	16	19	48:72	-24	49
20		Wigan Athletic	46	12	9	25	47:71	-24	45
21		Millwall FC	46	10	11	25	45:67	-22	41
22		Reading FC	46	9	13	24	45:71	-26	40
23		Bolton Wanderers	46	9	9	28	30:69	-39	36
24		Ipswich Town	46	6	16	24	35:71	-36	34

 

Aufstieg

 

BTW you have some teams on played 45

 

[Jim]

5 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I’m absolutely convinced we’ll win at Norwich to help United and Leeds out.

 

We’ll probably be about 5/1 as well.  Put the lot on it, I guarantee it.

 

I just don’t see us losing to either Leeds or Norwich. I’ve felt for a while after all the stick from several quarters Bruce got with his decision to start here late and after all he’s been through personally over the last year that he is going to have something to smile about come the end of the season.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Great Big Galaa

[sheriwozgod]

I have us finishing 9th with the blunts playing Villa in the play off semi.

[109Waddle]

Can’t be arrsed looking this up but wonder where we were with 9 games to go when we got to the playoffs?

[asteener1867]

Just how it came out usin' logic...F..o0k me!

 

 

 

1		Sheffield Wednesday	46	22	13	11	97:49	48	79
2		Leeds United	46	24	7	15	68:71	-3	79
3		Norwich City	46	23	10	13	79:86	-7	79
4		West Bromwich Albion	46	18	18	10	76:55	21	72
5		Sheffield United	46	21	8	17	63:86	-23	71
6		Preston North End	46	17	16	13	76:64	12	67
7		Birmingham City	46	15	19	12	69:56	13	64
8		Middlesbrough FC	45	15	19	11	44:39	5	64
9		Bristol City	45	17	13	15	53:58	-5	64
10		Aston Villa	46	15	18	13	75:75	0	63
11		Nottingham Forest	46	15	17	14	62:59	3	62
12		Swansea City	45	16	13	16	56:51	5	61
13		Stoke City	46	14	19	13	51:51	0	61
14		Derby County	46	15	16	15	50:57	-7	61
15		Blackburn Rovers	46	14	17	15	64:64	0	59
16		Queens Park Rangers	46	15	12	19	55:67	-12	57
17		Reading FC	46	14	14	18	60:60	0	56
18		Hull City	46	15	11	20	58:63	-5	56
19		Brentford FC	45	14	13	18	69:60	9

 

 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by asteener1867

[asteener1867]

No..I don't know how to edit properly...thats not the point...I feel sorry for Norwich..and I'm also disappointed regarding how hard it is to get the blades outta the equation

[BowOwl]

Every year in the championship, the last 5/6 weeks the bottom clubs become a different beast. You'll get all sorts of shock results and thumpings. Form will completely go out of the window for them.
I reckon Middlesborough/Preston/Forest are teams ripe for beating by some of the lower clubs, as they are the games they write off and wins and worry about teams around them.

[HarrowbyOwl]

15 minutes ago, 109Waddle said:

Can’t be arrsed looking this up but wonder where we were with 9 games to go when we got to the playoffs?

Points after 37 games;

2015-16: 59

2016-17: 62

2017-18: 38 (yes, it was that bad. Somehow Jos managed to conjure up 6 wins and 2 draws from the last 9)

2018-19: 52

[sonofbert2]

7 hours ago, oh_weds_we_love_you said:

 

They'll be teams fighting for their lives. Probably our two worst results under Bruce have been against Reading and Millwall - both in relegation bother.

 

Reading was the killer.

[Jim]

Ipswich are going to be a tough team to play between now and the end of the season.

[Swiss Toni]

My effort, for what it's worth. I had us 6th before the Leeds and Norwich games but our run-in is tough.

 

[Ash77]

69 points, 9th

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by Ash77

[new zealand owl]

8 hours ago, frastheowl said:

 

I said the other day, 70/71 points might be enough, and in all likelihood, we'd finish just shy of it. With this prediction, I've got it at 71, but we'd still finish just 2 pts short of the required amount. 

 

Expect Villa to have a strong finish. Smith has seemed to get their defence in shape of late, and the comeback of Grealish seems to have given them an extra dimension going forward. 

 

Everybody else, in and around the chasing pack, I expect to pretty much match each others results. 

 

In the run in, I've got:

Villa - 19 points - 2.1pts/game

Forest - 17 points - 1.9/game

Wednesday - 17 points - 1.9/game

Hull - 16 points - 1.8/game

Preston - 14 - 1.6/game

Derby - 14 points - 1.6/game

Bristol - 15 points - 1.5/game

Boro - 13 points - 1.3/game

 

So not much between any of the teams really, and in the end, the cushion a faltering Boro already have, will just about be enough to keep them in the playoffs. 

 

For anybodies interest, here's how I predicted our results to go:

 

Blackburn (H) - Win 2-0

Stoke (A) - Lose 1-2

Villa (H) - Draw 2-2

Forest (H) - Win 2-0

Leeds (A) - Lose 0-2

Norwich (A) - Win 2-1

Bristol (H) - Win 1-0

Preston (A) - Draw 1-1

QPR (H) - Win 3-2

Completely with you on that prediction. Have a horrible feeling about the Stoke game. No idea why but just think they will turn up against us for one of the few times this season