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MysticOwl

Will P&S kill us and the FL?

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So I did some thinking on the way home from the match today and this is what I concluded. 

 

P&S is a new thing in the FL so it hasnt really taken effect yet. But give it another 1-3 years (when the 3 year rolling situation kicks in) this is what you are going to see.....

 

The top 3-6 clubs in the Championship will be yo-yo'ing with the PL because of parachute payments keeping them higher than anyone else.

7-12 the likes of us, Leeds, Forest, Derby etc because we have the next highest revenue / gates.

Then below that Blackburn, Hull and Wigan.

Then below that Rotherham and the rest...because they have the least revenue.

 

This is all because it will all come down to revenue i.e. the clubs with the biggest gates will create the most revenue and be able to hire the better players.

 

Over a period of time you will eventually see the entire FL evening out with finishing league positions in line with the highest to lowest gate attendances. Clubs will finish on average in line with their revenue streams. So the highest gated clubs will be the stronger clubs. There is always an exception to the rule of course i.e Huddersfield. 

 

But Millionaire owners will not be keen to buy football clubs with lower gates and particularly with the challenges of P&S with transfer embargo's, fines and points deductions. This will suffocate the lower leagues as the teams who play there will never mount a challenge to be a better club. 

 

If you are a Formula 1 fan......you may recall when they changed the rules so that the cars had to run the entire race on a full tank of petrol. This was before kers and dls. Basically what happened was, after the first lap none of the cars could over take each other because they were all weighted roughly the same. 

 

So....the answer lies in bigger gates at Hillsborough. 

Edited by MysticOwl
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Think many criticisms of FFP / P&S are vaild but Wednesday knew the rules, chose to gamble and did not have a back up plan when the play offs were lost.

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So, your deduction is that bigger clubs will ultimately fair better than smaller ones?

 

You really are 'Mystic'!

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Think it will get scrapped after the early runners who invest and brake it get big fines

 

we will probably see teams get bigger and bigger punishments and find ways around it 

 

some will go bust and start again at lower levels some might get relegated to these levels as it tries to maintain not braking the rules 

 

it’s impossible to police unless everyone teams will brake it every year toco Pete get embargo’s and punishments new teams will see this as a chance to compete and brake it I think the gap between the premier and championship will grow we will see more teams with lower budgets compete higher in our division as moral and limited manouvering kills the over spent teams 

 

it’s just a farce maybe what they need is to have the chairman’s willing to spend provide guarantees like assets to allow them to compete 

 

way i I see it I’d think at least 10 clubs will brake it in the next 5-8 years so how does this work. I don’t know

 

ita only fair If the parachute payments are realistic like you have 1 year to reduce your outgoings to 50% over then reduce this over the years to 25% then brake even this gives them plenty of chances to bring it line but what they do is have extra funds to bounce back 

 

thats not right it should be about reduction and bringing them in line with the rest of the league rather that reward and giving them the advantage of better squads and more money 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Pacific said:

So, your deduction is that bigger clubs will ultimately fair better than smaller ones?

 

You really are 'Mystic'!

 

Well, it will also keep the PL clubs (as they are) in the top tier. Some will yo-yo. But ultimately the FL will become stale and predictable. 

 

 

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Said earlier in the week, the epl want a financial ring fenced league. To protect the product. As they cant eliminate relegation. 

 

However, in my opinion, only a matter of time before p +s becomes tossed aside, as it will be detrimental to the competition. Its just not a sustainable model. 

Edited by Maddogbob
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7 minutes ago, MysticOwl said:

 

Well, it will also keep the PL clubs (as they are) in the top tier. Some will yo-yo. But ultimately the FL will become stale and predictable. 

 

 

Much like the premier league product. 

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10 minutes ago, fpowl said:

Think it will get scrapped after the early runners who invest and brake it get big fines

 

we will probably see teams get bigger and bigger punishments and find ways around it 

 

some will go bust and start again at lower levels some might get relegated to these levels as it tries to maintain not braking the rules 

 

it’s impossible to police unless everyone teams will brake it every year toco Pete get embargo’s and punishments new teams will see this as a chance to compete and brake it I think the gap between the premier and championship will grow we will see more teams with lower budgets compete higher in our division as moral and limited manouvering kills the over spent teams 

 

it’s just a farce maybe what they need is to have the chairman’s willing to spend provide guarantees like assets to allow them to compete 

 

way i I see it I’d think at least 10 clubs will brake it in the next 5-8 years so how does this work. I don’t know

 

ita only fair If the parachute payments are realistic like you have 1 year to reduce your outgoings to 50% over then reduce this over the years to 25% then brake even this gives them plenty of chances to bring it line but what they do is have extra funds to bounce back 

 

thats not right it should be about reduction and bringing them in line with the rest of the league rather that reward and giving them the advantage of better squads and more money 

 

 

Let me guess, you're an English teacher aren't you?

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Even if we had sold all the empty seats over the last 3 years it would only have made around a 10 million in revenue difference for ticket sales. More supporters means extra costs eating into any profit. So we would still be in trouble with P & S.

Sponsorship and ancillary sales have the potential to solve this puzzle.

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9 minutes ago, Utah Owl said:

Let me guess, you're an English teacher aren't you?

not a very good one given how he spells break!

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Llama Stare GIF - Llama Stare GIFs

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1 hour ago, MysticOwl said:

So I did some thinking on the way home from the match today and this is what I concluded. 

 

P&S is a new thing in the FL so it hasnt really taken effect yet. But give it another 1-3 years (when the 3 year rolling situation kicks in) this is what you are going to see.....

 

The top 3-6 clubs in the Championship will be yo-yo'ing with the PL because of parachute payments keeping them higher than anyone else.

7-12 the likes of us, Leeds, Forest, Derby etc because we have the next highest revenue / gates.

Then below that Blackburn, Hull and Wigan.

Then below that Rotherham and the rest...because they have the least revenue.

 

This is all because it will all come down to revenue i.e. the clubs with the biggest gates will create the most revenue and be able to hire the better players.

 

Over a period of time you will eventually see the entire FL evening out with finishing league positions in line with the highest to lowest gate attendances. Clubs will finish on average in line with their revenue streams. So the highest gated clubs will be the stronger clubs. There is always an exception to the rule of course i.e Huddersfield. 

 

But Millionaire owners will not be keen to buy football clubs with lower gates and particularly with the challenges of P&S with transfer embargo's, fines and points deductions. This will suffocate the lower leagues as the teams who play there will never mount a challenge to be a better club. 

 

If you are a Formula 1 fan......you may recall when they changed the rules so that the cars had to run the entire race on a full tank of petrol. This was before kers and dls. Basically what happened was, after the first lap none of the cars could over take each other because they were all weighted roughly the same. 

 

So....the answer lies in bigger gates at Hillsborough. 

Tango already has a bigger gate cos he doesn't fit through the ordinary ones.

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What kind of businesses are they that turn down external investment into their product on the one hand; Then welcomes what investment they have leaching away to agents and other external so called businesses like (you could name any number of several). Meanwhile the game at kids level are forced to pay £80+ for pitch hire.  

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No

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The Football League “evening out” in the OP both intrigues and scares me.

 

But to be clear - I don’t want to spend an evening out with Madine and Ripper Ched.


The owls are not what they seem.

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The problem with the OP analysis is that the evidence proves it not to be the case

 

i don't think the 3 clubs relegated with parachute payments have ever all gone back up

 

Very rarely do even 2 of them and on more than one occasion they've gone straight through into league 1

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What I don't get is the fact that the EFL ratifies club takeover deals, giving a club license to fresh investment, then punishes these clubs and owners when the investment becomes too much. 

 

Like I said in another thread the other day, the whole thing is hypocritical. Clubs in this league get punished for investing in order to be the best they can be with the money they have available to them, whilst teams in the league above get rewarded whether they succeed or fail. 

 

FFP on paper was a great idea, but since it's introduction the footballing world has moved on dramatically and even now we are struggling to align ourselves with rules which are and always will be out of date with the ever-changing landscape in football.

 

Ultimately, nothing will change until half the league is under an embargo and the league is on the verge of collapse...so I give it 10 years max.

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