Who's had the toughest start?

[Mystic Neg]

1 hour ago, Ian said:

Whilst this is very interesting to look at, any serious statistician would rip it to shreds....there are far too many other factors to it and interdependencies.

 

For example, Bristol City were much higher in the table last week.....we then beat them and they plummeted down the table......but they were still just as easy / difficult to play as before we beat them and in effect, in terms of this analysis, we've done ourselves by beating them

 

Similarly you mention having a bet on Millwall to finish top half based in the fact that they have had the most difficult games so far, but you don't take that in to account when giving us very little credit for beating them at home.

 

If we beat Middlesbrough on Friday, that would give us a decent return in this project and yet if Tony Pullis was to be believed that will only be because all their team have been away on international duty.......on a similar but more likely point there is no taking in to account of injuries / suspensions etc

 

For all that I like it

I hear you, this isn't one for the serious statisticians but I do think it has proved my gut feeling that the dark side have had it easiest so far and anyone looking at Millwall's start can't deny it's been tough.

 

There are interdependencies that I could get close to factoring in.

 

I guess if I do this over the 1st 23 games it ought to give a reasonable show of who has had the easier away games thus who has the tougher away gaMrs coming up 2nd half.

Edited October 14, 2018 by Mystic Neg

[Mystic Neg]

7 minutes ago, daleblue said:

 

If all the clubs have played the same amount of Home/Away matches in comparison to other teams then does it matter if halfing is correct, as it would still put teams

in the correct order, wouldn't it?

At 10am with a slight hangover I'm going to say no. It may at least narrow the range i.e. 6 Millwall to 11.5 blunts.

 

I think there will be some ordering change too. I'm going to have to spend another hour doing that now. Mrs Neg will be delighted.

[Inspector Lestrade]

Just now, Mystic Neg said:

At 10am with a slight hangover I'm going to say no. It may at least narrow the range i.e. 6 Millwall to 11.5 blunts.

 

I think there will be some ordering change too. I'm going to have to spend another hour doing that now. Mrs Neg will be delighted.

 

Are you going to use tarot cards, crystal balls, or a spreadsheet?   

[Redfern Froggatt]

I think you need to build the Wednesday way of doing things into the formula - even when we've not been particularly competitive we'v raised our game against the tiop teams and underperfromed in games we should win (eg ever game against Burton ever).

 

The wins against Reading, Milwall & Ipswich are the games we would have probably lost in previous seasons (in that they are teams in the botton half of the table rather than those particular clubs) and so regardless of who other teams aroud us have played I think we have made a good start. 

[Inspector Lestrade]

I'll do a similar table at the end of the season. 

[Mystic Neg]

So here is what @Holmowl wanted to see on basis of what @fingyfop had stated.

 

Gone with 75% value of points for away matches instead of 50%.

 

Essentially the significance of being away has been reduced. It has changed the side with the easiest games to Derby but still has Millwall with toughest.

 

Owls now have 9th easiest instead of 6th

 

 

[Mystic Neg]

16 minutes ago, Watson said:

I'll do a similar table at the end of the season. 

But that's the only time when there is no need for speculating?

 

Where's the fun in that

 

 

[Inspector Lestrade]

1 minute ago, Mystic Neg said:

But that's the only time when there is no need for speculating?

 

Where's the fun in that

 

 

 

I can gloat in the fact that mine is the most accurate  

[alanharper]

2 hours ago, Ian said:

Whilst this is very interesting to look at, any serious statistician would rip it to shreds....there are far too many other factors to it and interdependencies.

 

For example, Bristol City were much higher in the table last week.....we then beat them and they plummeted down the table......but they were still just as easy / difficult to play as before we beat them and in effect, in terms of this analysis, we've done ourselves by beating them

 

 

Agreed, the table is so tight at the moment that a single win completely changes things e.g. this time last week we were 13th with a game in hand, if we'd lost at Bristol we'd have been 14th and they'd have been 6th, but we won and we're in the top 6 whilst they're mid table. 

 

The OP's graph also only takes into account the current table and not where teams were and their form when we actually played them e.g. Millwall were 9th and unbeaten after 4 games and we beat them and they've plummeted since then, Bristol were in the top 3 only a few weeks ago, Norwich were winless when the pigs beat them and they've since put a run together. 

 

So there's really no way of accurately doing this but any table which puts the pigs at the bottom is fine with me. 

 

 

.

 

 

Edited October 14, 2018 by alanharper
typo

[Guest Jack the Hat]

13 hours ago, nevthelodgemoorowl said:

Great save it until Christmas and bring out a new one in the New Year see how it compares !

But surely by xmas (give or take the odd game) we will have all played each team once as we are half way through the season, so a comparison would be pointless.

[Southie_Owl]

A good barometer of success is comparing your fixtures/results to others, as you play different teams at different points in the season. 

 

For example the teams the pigs have also played so far.. Bristol City, Millwall, Hull and Villa and got 9 points. We’ve got 10 points from those games 

 

I think I’m right in saying in the next 12 games the pigs are still to play: 

 

West Brom, Leeds, Forest, Wednesday, Brentford, Derby, Stoke. 

 

If they can get wins, and still be on top after playing these teams then fair play to them. But right now I would doubt they are good enough 

[jonesy87shef]

Well done op for going to that effort.

 

imo it might have been better to take into account something like form over the last 6 home games and last 6 away. 

 

I think united have had a much easier start. However winning at a team like Blackburn is damn hard and I believe they’ve barely lost at home this season and last.

 

Unfortunately far too many variables to be accurate.

[Growl67]

11 hours ago, jonesy87shef said:

Well done op for going to that effort.

 

imo it might have been better to take into account something like form over the last 6 home games and last 6 away. 

 

I think united have had a much easier start. However winning at a team like Blackburn is damn hard and I believe they’ve barely lost at home this season and last.

 

Unfortunately far too many variables to be accurate.

That’s my view as well. 

 

Even over just 12 games, teams can hit or lose form for a spell, so you can get a good side on a bit of a downer or a poor one when they’re on a brief high. Leeds were well up for that game they had something to prove and the  performance against WBA was outstanding really. They were bang in form but they’d been terrible for the first few games. Villa were unbeaten when they played United and I think were Bolton top and they beat them both so doing the spreadsheet earlier would have brought a totally different set of results.

 

Like you say too many variables and no allowance made for the fact that most team’s form and fitness can fluctuate several times over a season. The final table never lies though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Steelman]

I think we should just accept that the Pigs have won the league in October.

 

Lets just focus on where we finish in may, we've been here before and we all know how it ends.

 

You can't educate Pork.

[Hookowl]

11 minutes ago, Steelman said:

I think we should just accept that the Pigs have won the league in October.

 

Lets just focus on where we finish in may, we've been here before and we all know how it ends.

 

You can't educate Pork.

 

[room0035]

All the years I have watched the Owls I can think of maybe 2 or 3 years out of 40 where we have made a quick start. There used to be a bit of a joke that a lot of the players picked up leading to Christmas as they needed the win bonuses for Birthday and do's.

 

We find ourselves in 6th after 12 games 19 points from the games the usual yard stick for promotion is 2 points a game or 90+ points for the season.

 

The last few years on average 75 points normally get you in the play offs, this season the championship seem a lot more competitive with no stand out teams like we have had in season gone by and it could mean the usual bands of 90 points for promotion and 75 to get to the play off's being lower.

 

This could all change but that the fun of football no one knows there are so many things that could aid or hinder a team over a season.

[adifferentgame]

On 13/10/2018 at 21:47, Mystic Neg said:

Anyone got any thoughts on how I could make it better or tweak the formulas?

 

Suspect you already know the answer to this.

 

Time.

 

Run it again after every team has played every other team once - it'll provide a far more accurate picture.

[Class of 91]

This is just a load of 80llocks though isn't it. Clearly the teams that have won more games and have more points will be higher in the table and subsequently will score a higher average because the teams are below them.

 

For example, after 46 games, whoever is top will have the exact same average as the team in bottom place.

 

The beauty of football is that you win points for winning games. Leeds were top last week when Brentford went to Elland Road. By this logic, Brentford score 1pt because Leeds are now second. Yet when they played them and took a point, they were top so if you had scored them before their game, would've got 0.5pts. The fact that Brentford took the points off them made Leeds lose a place but based on this "formula" they score higher due to their success? 

 

It's not taking into consideration where the teams were when the game was played.

 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2018 by Class of 91

[Binky Griptite]

14 hours ago, Class of 91 said:

For example, after 46 games, whoever is top will have the exact same average as the team in bottom place.

 

Not true, the team at the bottom after 46 games would have the hardest fixtures with the lowest average and the team top would have the easiest with the highest average. I do get your point though, if you win a game you invariably rise up the table and if you lose you drop, therefore the weighting is wise after the event because by virtue of the fact you won a game that game is classed as having been easier than it was before the game, whilst the opposite is true for the losing team, particularly at such an infant stage of the table where teams can rise or drop eight places in 90 minutes.

 

Its interesting but relatively meaningless as an analysis and I can't help but feel it'd be given much less credence if a certain team weren't shown as having the easiest fixtures (or second easiest on the recount).

[Class of 91]

3 hours ago, Binky Griptite said:

 

Not true, the team at the bottom after 46 games would have the hardest fixtures with the lowest average and the team top would have the easiest with the highest average. I do get your point though, if you win a game you invariably rise up the table and if you lose you drop, therefore the weighting is wise after the event because by virtue of the fact you won a game that game is classed as having been easier than it was before the game, whilst the opposite is true for the losing team, particularly at such an infant stage of the table where teams can rise or drop eight places in 90 minutes.

 

Its interesting but relatively meaningless as an analysis and I can't help but feel it'd be given much less credence if a certain team weren't shown as having the easiest fixtures (or second easiest on the recount).

 

Of course, my mistake.

 

The winners would have an average of 9.75. Bottom would have an average of 9.

 

It would be interesting to see where the teams were when the games were played mind. For example, when Wednesday beat Millwall, they were unbeaten and in 12th, when Bristol C beat United, they were 3rd, they've not won since.