Who's had the toughest start?

[Sova]

On 14/10/2018 at 13:09, Mystic Neg said:

So here is what @Holmowl wanted to see on basis of what @fingyfop had stated.

 

Gone with 75% value of points for away matches instead of 50%.

 

Essentially the significance of being away has been reduced. It has changed the side with the easiest games to Derby but still has Millwall with toughest.

 

Owls now have 9th easiest instead of 6th

 

 

By my reckoning, our figure for the last 12 games is 5.85. For the last 11, it's 5.20. In our last 11 games, we've played every team currently in the top 9, and no team currently lower than 14th. The five games against teams now outside the playoffs were all away. Not saying we couldn't be doing better, but we have had a tough run.

[Mystic Neg]

19 minutes ago, Sova said:

By my reckoning, our figure for the last 12 games is 5.85. For the last 11, it's 5.20. In our last 11 games, we've played every team currently in the top 9, and no team currently lower than 14th. The five games against teams now outside the playoffs were all away. Not saying we couldn't be doing better, but we have had a tough run.

Guess we need our next 5 games to be easier then because after that we will have played everyone once.

 

We have had a tough run of games but I'm a touch worried I have to say. 

[Class of 91]

On 13/10/2018 at 21:47, Mystic Neg said:

So each team in the championship has had 12 games so far and the table is beginning to take shape. I found myself asking who's had the easiest start?

 

Unless you are a complete maths whiz or a bookie there is probably no perfect formula but I went as follows;

 

I looked at the games each team has faced so far against the league table as it stands after 12 games.

 

Each team were awarded points as per following example to attempt to prove difficulty or ease of start.

 

e.g.

 

If you have played a home game against a team, you score their league position as it stands today.

 

If you play an away game against a team, you score their league position divided by 2 (because away games are usually tougher).

 

Tot them all up and divide it by 12 gives an average game difficulty.

 

This gave the following;

 

 

Lowest average of all teams means hardest set of fixtures and highest average is easiest set of fixtures.

 

The picture below shows the table of difficulty with the team with the most difficult start at the top of the league and the easiest start at the bottom it also breaks down the position in the league of the teams they've played so far by thirds at home and away;

 

 

Given our recent run of fixtures, I was surprised to find we have had the 6th easiest set of fixtures but then again we have had some supposedly easy fixtures at home earlier in the season.

 

Very pleased to see the blunts with the easiest set having only played one game against a top 8 side - I guess that's about right.

 

This might be a good tool to use for predicting results because sometimes the actual league table isn't all that it seems!

 

Anyone got any thoughts on how I could make it better or tweak the formulas?

 

 

 

 

How's it looking now?

[Class of 91]

On 13/10/2018 at 21:47, Mystic Neg said:

So each team in the championship has had 12 games so far and the table is beginning to take shape. I found myself asking who's had the easiest start?

 

Unless you are a complete maths whiz or a bookie there is probably no perfect formula but I went as follows;

 

I looked at the games each team has faced so far against the league table as it stands after 12 games.

 

Each team were awarded points as per following example to attempt to prove difficulty or ease of start.

 

e.g.

 

If you have played a home game against a team, you score their league position as it stands today.

 

If you play an away game against a team, you score their league position divided by 2 (because away games are usually tougher).

 

Tot them all up and divide it by 12 gives an average game difficulty.

 

This gave the following;

 

 

Lowest average of all teams means hardest set of fixtures and highest average is easiest set of fixtures.

 

The picture below shows the table of difficulty with the team with the most difficult start at the top of the league and the easiest start at the bottom it also breaks down the position in the league of the teams they've played so far by thirds at home and away;

 

 

Given our recent run of fixtures, I was surprised to find we have had the 6th easiest set of fixtures but then again we have had some supposedly easy fixtures at home earlier in the season.

 

Very pleased to see the blunts with the easiest set having only played one game against a top 8 side - I guess that's about right.

 

This might be a good tool to use for predicting results because sometimes the actual league table isn't all that it seems!

 

Anyone got any thoughts on how I could make it better or tweak the formulas?

 

 

 

 

 

Found this earlier, based on teams current points per game rather than league position, it shows Derby to have the easiest run in and therefore have had the hardest run to date

 

Edited February 4, 2019 by Class of 91