Who's had the toughest start?

[Mystic Neg]

So each team in the championship has had 12 games so far and the table is beginning to take shape. I found myself asking who's had the easiest start?

 

Unless you are a complete maths whiz or a bookie there is probably no perfect formula but I went as follows;

 

I looked at the games each team has faced so far against the league table as it stands after 12 games.

 

Each team were awarded points as per following example to attempt to prove difficulty or ease of start.

 

e.g.

 

If you have played a home game against a team, you score their league position as it stands today.

 

If you play an away game against a team, you score their league position divided by 2 (because away games are usually tougher).

 

Tot them all up and divide it by 12 gives an average game difficulty.

 

This gave the following;

 

 

Lowest average of all teams means hardest set of fixtures and highest average is easiest set of fixtures.

 

The picture below shows the table of difficulty with the team with the most difficult start at the top of the league and the easiest start at the bottom it also breaks down the position in the league of the teams they've played so far by thirds at home and away;

 

 

Given our recent run of fixtures, I was surprised to find we have had the 6th easiest set of fixtures but then again we have had some supposedly easy fixtures at home earlier in the season.

 

Very pleased to see the blunts with the easiest set having only played one game against a top 8 side - I guess that's about right.

 

This might be a good tool to use for predicting results because sometimes the actual league table isn't all that it seems!

 

Anyone got any thoughts on how I could make it better or tweak the formulas?

 

 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2018 by Mystic Neg

[Buddy Repperton]

Wondered why the pigs were top. Thought it might be all the penalties

[Owls2k]

Would be very surprised if either Wednesday or united were in the top 6 come May, unless we improve further anyway. 

[roland nilson]

It’s super, did you go to university?

[Mystic Neg]

18 minutes ago, Owls2k said:

Would be very surprised if either Wednesday or united were in the top 6 come May, unless we improve further anyway. 

Understand that but those with easier fixtures doing well can say you can only beat what's in front of you which is true.

 

We as a team have handled a tricky last 5 fixtures pretty well and that bodes must better than our overall performance in the 1st 6 games. We are on an upward curve.

 

I think if I were to have a few bets on the back of what I've done above, I'll go Boro for Champions, Millwall to finish top half and Rotherham to finish bottom.

 

 

[Mystic Neg]

12 minutes ago, roland nilson said:

It’s super, did you go to university?

 

This wasn't borne out of university, it was out of sheer international break boredom that I sweated over this.

[Owls2k]

12 minutes ago, Mystic Neg said:

Understand that but those with easier fixtures doing well can say you can only beat what's in front of you which is true.

 

We as a team have handled a tricky last 5 fixtures pretty well and that bodes must better than our overall performance in the 1st 6 games. We are on an upward curve.

 

I think if I were to have a few bets on the back of what I've done above, I'll go Boro for Champions, Millwall to finish top half and Rotherham to finish bottom.

 

 

We are a team of potential, however our defence (not just limited to the back 4/5 and the goalie..) needs to drastically improve if we are going to do something. 

 

Re:the fixtures, we all know there are no easy games in the Championship. A team's season is often defined on those games you are expected to win, if you 'win ugly' then you're on the right track. Carlos had a horrendous record against the teams at the top but it didn't stop us finishing 6th and 4th. 

 

We have conceded more goals than any other team in the top half, sort out that issue and with Hooper and Winnall coming back we could have a chance of making a challenge on the top 6. 

[Luke]

if pigs had fixtures we had ,no way would they be top now,only team they've played whose any good is Swansea on opening day and the swans made them look the average team they are.lets see how good they are once theyve played the decent teams in this league

[nevthelodgemoorowl]

4 hours ago, Mystic Neg said:

So each team in the championship has had 12 games so far and the table is beginning to take shape. I found myself asking who's had the easiest start?

 

Unless you are a complete maths whiz or a bookie there is probably no perfect formula but I went as follows;

 

I looked at the games each team has faced so far against the league table as it stands after 12 games.

 

Each team were awarded points as per following example to attempt to prove difficulty or ease of start.

 

e.g.

 

If you have played a home game against a team, you score their league position as it stands today.

 

If you play an away game against a team, you score their league position divided by 2 (because away games are usually tougher).

 

Tot them all up and divide it by 12 gives an average game difficulty.

 

This gave the following;

 

 

Lowest average of all teams means hardest set of fixtures and highest average is easiest set of fixtures.

 

The picture below shows the table of difficulty with the team with the most difficult start at the top of the league and the easiest start at the bottom it also breaks down the position in the league of the teams they've played so far by thirds at home and away;

 

 

Given our recent run of fixtures, I was surprised to find we have had the 6th easiest set of fixtures but then again we have had some supposedly easy fixtures at home earlier in the season.

 

Very pleased to see the blunts with the easiest set having only played one game against a top 8 side - I guess that's about right.

 

This might be a good tool to use for predicting results because sometimes the actual league table isn't all that it seems!

 

Anyone got any thoughts on how I could make it better or tweak the formulas?

 

 

 

 

Great save it until Christmas and bring out a new one in the New Year see how it compares !

[pgmetcalf]

9 hours ago, Buddy Repperton said:

Wondered why the pigs were top. Thought it might be all the penalties

 

It is 

[handworth52]

working out who has had the easiest start etc is impossible , but we have had at home  leeds(top) wbrom(top) stoke(exprem)  then easier in hull,millwall,ipswich  the 1st 3 would be predicted to finish top 6 ,the last 3 bottom 6 so id save we have had a neutral start. away ,wigan Brentford reading forest villa Bristol city apart from reading that's 5 tough away games who u expect to be top half ,so id say upto now we have had slightly more difficult games than average , pigs on other hand home Swansea,norwich villa,birmingham,preston hull out of those 6 home games not 1 difficult 1, away middlesborough,qpr,bolton,bristol city,millwall,blackburn. only middlesborough out of that a really tough game . without doubt the pigs have had an easier set of games .it wont be till January  till the table will average out . 

[Guest]

I don't think halving the points for away matches gives a proper representation, it should be more 5 to 10% different (or based on position in the home/away table seperately)

 

Halving is too extreme 

Edited October 14, 2018 by Guest

[doubleo]

Thanks Mystic, I think it's great work. I like analysing these sort of stats. Ryan's graphs are another brilliant piece of work. The thing with the game though is it can change so quickly. Take this week - Smith has left Brentford for Villa - that's going to have a profound effect on two of our rivals - and Wigan are in the process of being taken over, completed in the next 6 weeks apparently. So trying to predict is difficult. I mean, we only need to get Abdi back and who knows how that could affect us.

[Ian]

Whilst this is very interesting to look at, any serious statistician would rip it to shreds....there are far too many other factors to it and interdependencies.

 

For example, Bristol City were much higher in the table last week.....we then beat them and they plummeted down the table......but they were still just as easy / difficult to play as before we beat them and in effect, in terms of this analysis, we've done ourselves by beating them

 

Similarly you mention having a bet on Millwall to finish top half based in the fact that they have had the most difficult games so far, but you don't take that in to account when giving us very little credit for beating them at home.

 

If we beat Middlesbrough on Friday, that would give us a decent return in this project and yet if Tony Pullis was to be believed that will only be because all their team have been away on international duty.......on a similar but more likely point there is no taking in to account of injuries / suspensions etc

 

For all that I like it

[marshy]

Didn't the pigs also play Boro away and got spanked?

[Holmowl]

41 minutes ago, fingyfop said:

I don't think halving the points for away matches gives a proper representation, it should be more 5 to 10% different (or based on position in the home/away table seperately)

 

Halving is too extreme 

 

@Mystic Neg 

 

So far the average points gained from the first six home games is 9.

The average gained from the first six aways is 7.

 

Across the entire 17/18 season the average home points gained was 35.

The average away points was 27.

 

So it does look like fingyfop (feels bizarre typing the word fingyfop) has a good point. 

 

7/9 and 27/35 is ~ 75%. So half points seems too low.

 

 

 

[daleblue]

35 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

 

@Mystic Neg 

 

So far the average points gained from the first six home games is 9.

The average gained from the first six aways is 7.

 

Across the entire 17/18 season the average home points gained was 35.

The average away points was 27.

 

So it does look like fingyfop (feels bizarre typing the word fingyfop) has a good point. 

 

7/9 and 27/35 is ~ 75%. So half points seems too low.

 

 

 

 

What's fingyfop, and can I use it on the cat. Err, missus.

Edited October 14, 2018 by daleblue

[Mystic Neg]

1 hour ago, fingyfop said:

I don't think halving the points for away matches gives a proper representation, it should be more 5 to 10% different (or based on position in the home/away table seperately)

 

Halving is too extreme 

Fair point, I think I went for half as in my head it seemed about right. Of course there are other factors about being away this doesn't measure  distance of travel, how well supported opposition are regardless of atmosphere, our away allocation etc.

 

I think generally speaking whether it's half or 75%, this analys has just about churned out the team with hardest start (Millwall) and easiest starts (Blunts). About right when you look at who they've played and where their opponents lie in the league.

 

I might try the 75% Holmowl suggests and see how much difference it makes.

[Mystic Neg]

42 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

 

@Mystic Neg 

 

So far the average points gained from the first six home games is 9.

The average gained from the first six aways is 7.

 

Across the entire 17/18 season the average home points gained was 35.

The average away points was 27.

 

So it does look like fingyfop (feels bizarre typing the word fingyfop) has a good point. 

 

7/9 and 27/35 is ~ 75%. So half points seems too low.

 

 

 

I understand this angle and I will have a look at that this afternoon.

 

I think what halving it really emphasises is that it makes little difference whether you play successful teams home or away but teams that are struggling and playing them away from home is often a much tougher nut to crack.

 

As we ourselves have demonstrated on a number of occasions.

[daleblue]

2 minutes ago, Mystic Neg said:

Fair point, I think I went for half as in my head it seemed about right. Of course there are other factors about being away this doesn't measure  distance of travel, how well supported opposition are regardless of atmosphere, our away allocation etc.

 

I think generally speaking whether it's half or 75%, this analys has just about churned out the team with hardest start (Millwall) and easiest starts (Blunts). About right when you look at who they've played and where their opponents lie in the league.

 

I might try the 75% Holmowl suggests and see how much difference it makes.

 

If all the clubs have played the same amount of Home/Away matches in comparison to other teams then does it matter if halfing is correct, as it would still put teams

in the correct order, wouldn't it?