sherlyegg Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 hours ago, jonesy87shef said: Last point. You’re quoting me and I didn’t even write the post? Check it again please Ooops, soz...glad you agree though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, Mystic Neg said: You might think that but bookies pay mathematicians and technicians top dollar to use and develop systems and algorithms that will nigh on guarantee a steady healthy profit regardless of what people bet on. Half of them won't understand football but they will the architecture of results. Err, that is exactly what i was saying, they are not football experts. Hence I said, If these people were so smart, they wouldn't be working for bookies very long, they would be on the beach somewhere with £1/2/3M in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah Owl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 12 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: That’s not true at all. Weight of money undeniably plays a part but they have employees whom are paid to do nothing but take a view. If their employee taking a view visits this site I'm surprised our odds aren't longer! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mystic Neg Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, sherlyegg said: Err, that is exactly what i was saying, they are not football experts. Hence I said, If these people were so smart, they wouldn't be working for bookies very long, they would be on the beach somewhere with £1/2/3M in the bank. I personally thought we were disagreeing after that because we have different views on what is smart. Basically, if you sat on the beach with the smart maths guy, as a football savvy fan and someone gave you a random set of fixtures, you'd in all probablity beat the mathematician because you know football and he hasn't got his data modelling predicting it for him. If he were allowed to use his data models and whatnot he would in all probability beat you. I would say it wouldn't be all that smart for the guy on a big salary to leave the bookies and his access to an oracle of analytics so he could have a punt on the footie, unless you advised him of course. Unless you were saying that they might bet whilst at work, which I would imagine is frowned upon? Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 10 hours ago, Mystic Neg said: Unless you were saying that they might bet whilst at work, which I would imagine is frowned upon? Anyone know? I would guess it would be more than frowned upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 16 hours ago, Mystic Neg said: I personally thought we were disagreeing after that because we have different views on what is smart. Yes we seem to be at cross purposes, prob my mistake. Smart in the sense, bookies employ 'football experts' and they have vastly superior football knowledge than the average punter I don't think they have. I said, no they don't because if they were that smart (predicting football results) they wouldn't be working for a bookie for very long. Bookies are good at maths and to an extent probabilities but prioritise keeping the book in their favour. No matter the outcome they will be in profit...usually. They basically have as much idea of an outcome as any competent football pundit. If the original poster was correct that they had superior knowledge and expected results. Then they are doing a poor job. The bookie will set odds on any football match and install favs (sometimes joint favs granted). So 'the experts' have decided who will win, of course they are wrong more than half the time. 17 hours ago, Mystic Neg said: If he were allowed to use his data models and whatnot he would in all probability beat you. I don't think he would have any advantage in the long term whatsoever, the data models would only cover patterns of bets potential gains/losses not on the likelihood of the result, so he can set prices. The bookie usually hopes the fav loses but if the fav wins they will still show a profit...usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRADDO Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 I hope we stay under the radar for a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bark1062 Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 No, they’ve seen our defence and goaly. Should give them enough confidence in their thinking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 Top half now 3/2 not 7/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 (edited) Still 7/4 at betfair and 6/4 at BetVictor! https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/to-finish-in-top-half Edited October 13, 2018 by Almat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stoop Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 Betting odds are determined by how people are betting. Obviously a lot of other clubs fans are getting abit giddy about their teams chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 (edited) On 09/10/2018 at 22:04, ka58 said: I’ll be honest - I don’t fancy us either - I think we’re doing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable for a season. were inconsistent- not just in results but in performance and lineup. you don’t really know what you’re gonna get. i think we’ll be comfortably mid-table - would love to be surprised. Like stated earlier, our last 22 games have seen us collect 39 points. If that's inconsistent I'm sure many Champ managers wish their side was as inconsistent! The performances and line-ups matter not one jot if you are getting results over a decent number of games which would surely rule out short term reasons like luck and worldies.. And i would argue 22 games (almost half a season) is a pretty good indicator of a team's 'performance'. And we are improving, that's the thing... Edited October 13, 2018 by Almat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sham67 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 On 09/10/2018 at 22:04, ka58 said: I’ll be honest - I don’t fancy us either - I think we’re doing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable for a season. were inconsistent- not just in results but in performance and lineup. you don’t really know what you’re gonna get. i think we’ll be comfortably mid-table - would love to be surprised. 39 points from the last 22 games says we are pretty consistent and given that's more or less half a season, it looks sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Stoop said: Betting odds are determined by how people are betting. Obviously a lot of other clubs fans are getting abit giddy about their teams chances 4th most popular bet to finish bottom half @ 9/1 are the blades ...which suggests we are having 2 bets. Unless the piggies are getting nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hookowl Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 1 hour ago, sherlyegg said: 4th most popular bet to finish bottom half @ 9/1 are the blades ...which suggests we are having 2 bets. Unless the piggies are getting nervous I always have a couple of quid on them getting relegated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Athelwulf Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 It just shows how confident the fans of a given club are. We're not confident, based on what's happened since the play-off defeat, yet we probably should be more assured than we are. We're at 33/1 and the Blades are at 6/4. All that indicates is that a lot of Blades fancy their chances. They'd closed the book on Terry Henry getting the Villa job ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Athelwulf said: We're at 33/1 and the Blades are at 6/4. What's that 33/1 for, and the blunties 6/4? Before a ball was kicked this season.. 1. Stoke - 9/2 2. West Brom - 8/1 3. Middlesbrough - 9/1 4. Nottingham Forest - 9/1 5. Leeds United - 11/1 6. Swansea - 11/1 7. Aston Villa - 12/1 8. Brentford - 14/1 9. Derby - 16/1 10. Norwich - 20/1 11. Preston - 25/1 12. Sheffield United - 25/1 13. Sheffield Wednesday - 25/1 14. Bristol City - 28/1 15. Birmingham - 33/1 16. Wigan - 33/1 17. Blackburn - 40/1 18. Hull - 50/1 19. QPR - 50/1 20. Millwall - 50/1 21. Reading - 50/1 22. Ipswich - 80/1 23. Bolton - 200/1 24. Rotherham - 250/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 56 minutes ago, sherlyegg said: What's that 33/1 for, and the blunties 6/4? Before a ball was kicked this season.. 1. Stoke - 9/2 2. West Brom - 8/1 3. Middlesbrough - 9/1 4. Nottingham Forest - 9/1 5. Leeds United - 11/1 6. Swansea - 11/1 7. Aston Villa - 12/1 8. Brentford - 14/1 9. Derby - 16/1 10. Norwich - 20/1 11. Preston - 25/1 12. Sheffield United - 25/1 13. Sheffield Wednesday - 25/1 14. Bristol City - 28/1 15. Birmingham - 33/1 16. Wigan - 33/1 17. Blackburn - 40/1 18. Hull - 50/1 19. QPR - 50/1 20. Millwall - 50/1 21. Reading - 50/1 22. Ipswich - 80/1 23. Bolton - 200/1 24. Rotherham - 250/1 If those odds are for promotion you can STILL get 33/1 on us at skyBet!! https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 You can get 100/1 winner on skybet and ew bet top 3, so we could finish 3rd and not promoted, 1/4 odds for a place is 25/1. May as well have an ew punt at winner....if you are thinking promotion, have another bet promoted through play offs. We are 3/2 top half now from 15/8..(don't trust betfair or bet victor whom are offering a bit more, they have form for not honoring bets) I am wondering right now..the game against Borough (skybet) if they will wipe the board when the game is in play, top half finish...(they havn't before for some games)...anyhow if they don't and we are doing ok at HT...or winning or just looking ok, good for a point at least I will bung on again. If getting slaughtered I won't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Tibbs Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 On 09/10/2018 at 08:59, RUMBELOWS91 said: So according to SkyBet there are 15 teams more likely to make the top 6 than us. Teams like Wigan, Blackburn and Birmingham are seen as more likely to make the play offs. Why don't they fancy our chances? (or rather why do they see us as rank outsiders?) Do they know something we don't re January or do they just not rate us? I can't believe the odds are down to just how much money has been placed on other sides. Overall we're not that attractive to watch. The public now have access to a lot of our performances and we were hanging on against Leeds & Brom. Pathetic second half against Forest and hardly convincing against Bristol. I'd love us to be anywhere near the top Six in March, but right now we're not promotion material. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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