owlandished Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) Unlike high scoring games such as cricket or basketball, footy is low scoring, which means "luck" plays a more significant role. A single goal against the run of play can win a game. It's why football is the world's most popular spectator sport. It is unpredictable, but only to a certain extent. Bookies know that relying on "luck" is not a strategy, however. So, if team x is the most likely team to ship a goal as of 29th Sep 2018, and there are 15 more teams currently scoring more per game, the chances of team x winning the title at this moment of time are slim. Should those stats change for team x then the bookies will change their odds accordingly. The fact team x is 6th in the table is irrelevant because the table lies every week. Only at the end of the season does the table of results mean anything certain. Edited October 9, 2018 by owlandished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sham67 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 hours ago, owlandished said: Unlike high scoring games such as cricket or basketball, footy is low scoring, which means "luck" plays a more significant role. A single goal against the run of play can win a game. It's why football is the world's most popular spectator sport. It is unpredictable, but only to a certain extent. Bookies know that relying on "luck" is not a strategy, however. So, if team x is the most likely team to ship a goal as of 29th Sep 2018, and there are 15 more teams currently scoring more per game, the chances of team x winning the title at this moment of time are slim. Should those stats change for team x then the bookies will change their odds accordingly. The fact team x is 6th in the table is irrelevant because the table lies every week. Only at the end of the season does the table of results mean anything certain. What about our form over the last 22 games. I'm sorry, but putting that down to luck is just not credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlandished Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Sham67 said: What about our form over the last 22 games. I'm sorry, but putting that down to luck is just not credible. You are right. But nobody is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMBELOWS91 Posted October 9, 2018 Author Share Posted October 9, 2018 6 hours ago, pgmetcalf said: Why do people keep posting threads about our chances of promotion according to bookies? Because people find it interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bulgaria Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 7 hours ago, pgmetcalf said: Why do people keep posting threads about our chances of promotion according to bookies? Cause it's interesting maybe? What would you like to talk about? I could go into detail about the amount of toe fluff I have from my new Bulgarian socks if you would prefer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The only way is S6 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bulgaria said: Cause it's interesting maybe? What would you like to talk about? I could go into detail about the amount of toe fluff I have from my new Bulgarian socks if you would prefer? Can we have a wager on how many ounces there is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debram Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 get your money on now, the odds are sure to shorten. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonesy87shef Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 8 hours ago, sturutter said: I think there is some serious underestimation here of the level of expertise that bookies have. It's a bit boring and not really football, but the data can tell us so much, and is a massive thing. A lot of very clever people have access to a lot of complex data, and would love to beat the bookies. The bookies have to be better than them all. And they almost always are. Very very few people in the UK are able to make a living from betting on football. And it's not for lack of trying. At each betting firm, someone will be employed as their championship expert. They know what to look for, have the best data, get to work 40 hours a week on it, and get the job because they are a shrewd judge. I would go as far as saying that the championship expert at any major betting company is a better judge than the biggest fan of any club. Yes, the fans may know things that can't be measured exactly, like team spirit and transfer rumours, but the bookies are pretty sharp on these too. To use Leicester's 5000/1 shot as an argument against the bookies actually makes no sense at all. Instead, the fact there is one and only one winning 5000/1 shot of all the things you can bet on over all the years actually suggests that they're getting it about right. If the bookies are pricing things correctly, then once in a while, you should see 50/1 shots come in, and once in a very long while, even a 5000/1 shot. There's no denying a roulette wheel is priced correctly. If you stood and watched if for long enough, eventually you would see the number 1 come in three times in a row. A very long shot; that's your Leicester moment. The Leicester season was actually a great thing for the bookies, as it will be remembered for a long as a way some people won a lot of money, because they "got it wrong." They didn't. I'm not saying this to say anything negative at all about Wednesday, as things are very positive at the moment, but I'll just say, that the fact the real experts have us at about 14th favourites in the league makes for bad news for us. Up there with one of the best posts I’ve ever read on here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, jonesy87shef said: There's no denying a roulette wheel is priced correctly Nope it ain't, it's biased, The casino has the edge due to 0. 14 minutes ago, jonesy87shef said: I think there is some serious underestimation here of the level of expertise that bookies have. The only expertise bookies have is maths. Find any so called bookies expert, I will match him/her predicting 50 football match outcomes a week on Saturday. If these people were so smart, they wouldn't be working for bookies very long, they would be on the beach somewhere with £1/2/3M in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonesy87shef Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, sherlyegg said: Nope it ain't, it's biased, The casino has the edge due to 0. The only expertise bookies have is maths. Find any so called bookies expert, I will match him/her predicting 50 football match outcomes a week on Saturday. If these people were so smart, they wouldn't be working for bookies very long, they would be on the beach somewhere with £1/2/3M in the bank. Yes I know, giving the house about a 3 % edge. That’s why Americans have 00. Yes they do have maths, I’m very aware of it. It’s based on statistics and they also balance their books based on where the money goes. It’d be pretty damn hard to beat them seen as they price accordingly to also give them an edge. Last point. You’re quoting me and I didn’t even write the post? Check it again please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpark Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: The bookies will follow algorithms and trends very similar to this to judge the expected future performance of each team. its not difficult to see why they don’t rate our chances. https://experimental361.com/2018/09/30/scatter-graphics-championship-29-sep-2018/ Only two teams are scoring goals at a higher rate than us - yet this has us as having a 'quiet attack' No wonder the odds are, er, odd if that's what they are basing it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owlandished Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, simpark said: Only two teams are scoring goals at a higher rate than us - yet this has us as having a 'quiet attack' No wonder the odds are, er, odd if that's what they are basing it on 15 teams are expected to create more goals at a higher rate than us Edited October 9, 2018 by owlandished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rogerwyldesmullet Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 10 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: The bookies will follow algorithms and trends very similar to this to judge the expected future performance of each team. its not difficult to see why they don’t rate our chances. https://experimental361.com/2018/09/30/scatter-graphics-championship-29-sep-2018/ Wow. Big eye opener. Whatever his detractors say -Thank God we’ve got Dawson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brando Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 11 hours ago, Castleford Owl said: 6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous. really,i think there very short imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bassdrinker Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 11 hours ago, Nswowl said: Bookies have been known to get it wrong. Ask Leicester fans. BUT....the bookies didn't get it wrong. They made a fortune from fans of Man Utd/Man City/Chelsea etc by doing their job and MAKING a balanced BOOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 56 minutes ago, simpark said: Only two teams are scoring goals at a higher rate than us - yet this has us as having a 'quiet attack' No wonder the odds are, er, odd if that's what they are basing it on It is based on the amount of chances created in a match hence the expected goals per match from the chances created. Hence, what those stats show is that we are scoring more goals than you would expect a team to score from the chances we have created. So good finishing, but whether Bannan, Reach and Joao can keep cracking Worldies in all season , who knows. It also shows that we are conceding loads of goals because we are letting the opposition have loads of chances which has been pretty clear to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mystic Neg Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 hour ago, sherlyegg said: Nope it ain't, it's biased, The casino has the edge due to 0. The only expertise bookies have is maths. Find any so called bookies expert, I will match him/her predicting 50 football match outcomes a week on Saturday. If these people were so smart, they wouldn't be working for bookies very long, they would be on the beach somewhere with £1/2/3M in the bank. You might think that but bookies pay mathematicians and technicians top dollar to use and develop systems and algorithms that will nigh on guarantee a steady healthy profit regardless of what people bet on. Half of them won't understand football but they will the architecture of results. If I was that smart id still rather take a 6 figure salary and mess around with someone else's money than chuck it all at a game where there is probability but no mathematical certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GY-owl.4 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 So am i missing something here or are Bristol City 'formidable' at not conceding shots... but close to going from formidable to 'pushovers' who are 'avoiding the issue' which may make them 'competent but busy'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ka58 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 I’ll be honest - I don’t fancy us either - I think we’re doing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable for a season. were inconsistent- not just in results but in performance and lineup. you don’t really know what you’re gonna get. i think we’ll be comfortably mid-table - would love to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GY-owl.4 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 sominks gotta give.... in this thread of 'real data' we are certs for relegation.... but in a cracking thread yesterday, full of historic data it said if we stay in top 6 after 3 more games we have just about nearly made the play-offs. oh i get it, mix both of these stats together and it squirts us out in mid table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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