Why don't the bookies fancy our chances?

[OwlsfaninNorway]

They don't fancy our chances because they mix us up with the pigs that don't do full seasons. 

[OxonOwl]

I can't see how we're in the top 6

[fred mciver]

Those stats don't take account of our attacking prowess when a fully fit squad.

 

But they do highlight defensive shortcomings , so January's vital to a top 6 finish. 

[sturutter]

I think there is some serious underestimation here of the level of expertise that bookies have.

 

It's a bit boring and not really football, but the data can tell us so much, and is a massive thing. A lot of very clever people have access to a lot of complex data, and would love to beat the bookies. The bookies have to be better than them all. And they almost always are. Very very few people in the UK are able to make a living from betting on football. And it's not for lack of trying.

 

At each betting firm, someone will be employed as their championship expert. They know what to look for, have the best data, get to work 40 hours a week on it, and get the job because they are a shrewd judge. I would go as far as saying that the championship expert at any major betting company is a better judge than the biggest fan of any club. Yes, the fans may know things that can't be measured exactly, like team spirit and transfer rumours, but the bookies are pretty sharp on these too.

 

To use Leicester's 5000/1 shot as an argument against the bookies actually makes no sense at all. Instead, the fact there is one and only one winning 5000/1 shot of all the things you can bet on over all the years actually suggests that they're getting it about right.

 

If the bookies are pricing things correctly, then once in a while, you should see 50/1 shots come in, and once in a very long while, even a 5000/1 shot. There's no denying a roulette wheel is priced correctly. If you stood and watched if for long enough, eventually you would see the number 1 come in three times in a row. A very long shot; that's your Leicester moment. The Leicester season was actually a great thing for the bookies, as it will be remembered for a long as a way some people won a lot of money, because they "got it wrong." They didn't. 

 

I'm not saying this to say anything negative at all about Wednesday, as things are very positive at the moment, but I'll just say, that the fact the real experts have us at about 14th favourites in the league makes for bad news for us.

 

 

 

 

[sturutter]

1 hour ago, OxonOwl said:

I can't see how we're in the top 6

(This is not meant at all to be negative about Wednesday, just explaining why the bookies are rating us as they are)

 

We're in the top six because we've been luckier than we have realised. I don't know exactly what those elements are, but you can be sure that the bookies do. Change one piece of luck- let's say for example that we ran into a very wasteful Leeds attack- and we are 10th.

 

One way we as fans will be rating the season wrongly as we take stock is that we'll take it as a good thing that we've scored 2 really good goals (Baz), and two wonder goals (Reach). The bookies will instead count it against us that 4 goals which have won us 6 points have been unusually good. They are right to do so.

 

Far more important are the more common ways of scoring goals- simple good cross leading to a free header, set pieces, tap-ins from attacking pressure- and it means we have 4 fewer of those.  But, then you say, we have proved that we  two midfielders who are great strikers of the ball. Yes, we do, but a rate of one wonder goal every six games is just not going to continue for Reach. In November and December last year, he scored two great ones, and we will have thought at the time that he might pick up 2 or 3 great more in the next five months. He got none. Good as he is, it's far more likely now that there will be no Reach wonder goals in the next five months, than he will continue at this rate. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by sturutter

[pgmetcalf]

Why do people keep posting threads about our chances of promotion according to bookies? 

[Sham67]

We've picked up 39 points from the last 22 league games.  Which equates to 82 points over a full season.  Can any of the 'experts' out there, explain to me why our form is suddenly going to change for the worse.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Sham67

[Drewswfc]

21 minutes ago, sturutter said:

(This is not meant at all to be negative about Wednesday, just explaining why the bookies are rating us as they are)

 

We're in the top six because we've been luckier than we have realised. I don't know exactly what those elements are, but you can be sure that the bookies do. Change one piece of luck- let's say for example that we ran into a very wasteful Leeds attack- and we are 10th.

 

One way we as fans will be rating the season wrongly as we take stock is that we'll take it as a good thing that we've scored 2 really good goals (Baz), and two wonder goals (Reach). The bookies will instead count it against us that 4 goals which have won us 6 points have been unusually good. They are right to do so.

 

Far more important are the more common ways of scoring goals- simple good cross leading to a free header, set pieces, tap-ins from attacking pressure- and it means we have 4 fewer of those.  But, then you say, we have proved that we  two midfielders who are great strikers of the ball. Yes, we do, but a rate of one wonder goal every six games is just not going to continue for Reach. In November and December last year, he scored two great ones, and we will have thought at the time that he might pick up 2 or 3 great more in the next five months. He got none. Good as he is, it's far more likely now that there will be no Reach wonder goals in the next five months, than he will continue at this rate. 

I can agree with some of that like the wonder goals but being lucky is not one of them. We were lucky to get a point against leeds but should have beat hull and wba so in fairness could be 3 points better off

[SiJ]

Might as well just give up.

 

The bookies and some bloke on OT has decided we are where we are on luck alone. 

 

Season is over. 

[sturutter]

17 minutes ago, SiJ said:

Might as well just give up.

 

The bookies and some bloke on OT has decided we are where we are on luck alone. 

 

Season is over. 

I think we're doing great, and I think we've got a chance for the top six (which would be recognised as being incredible for a side who couldn't sign a single player). I'm just saying that I think the bookies are right that us being 6th doesnt mean we should be current 6th favourites. 

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

23 minutes ago, SiJ said:

Might as well just give up.

 

The bookies and some bloke on OT has decided we are where we are on luck alone. 

 

Season is over. 

I don’t think anybody has said that.

 

Merely that you can see why the bookies think some teams have a better chance than us.

[optimisticowl]

2 hours ago, OxonOwl said:

I can't see how we're in the top 6

 

Yes, that’s how you get to 6th in the league, Statistics, statistics and damn lies comes to mind. 

[sherlyegg]

Bookies might sometimes promote a dodgy fav, many many gamblers just back favs and nothing else.

[thewookieisdown]

3 hours ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

That’s not true at all.

 

Weight of money undeniably plays a part but they have employees whom are paid to do nothing but take a view.

It is a slight exaggeration but only slight. Obviously there is some initial market making. There is virtually zero position taking in live markets (and in so far as there is, it focuses in the big markets. Just look at the liquidity displayed clearly on Betfair in noddy markets such as championship promotion to get a sense of how marginal all this is.). 

 

 

[sturutter]

51 minutes ago, Drewswfc said:

I can agree with some of that like the wonder goals but being lucky is not one of them. We were lucky to get a point against leeds but should have beat hull and wba so in fairness could be 3 points better off

I agree. I guess the better way of looking at it is that our 'luck' is all in the two Reach goals without which we would be 11th. '

 

'Lucky' would of course completely unfair if you said it to the guy, as they were not at all hit and hopes, and he is great from long range. But it is right for the bookies to put then in their 'luck' column, simply in the sense that it's way higher rate than they realistically measure for him for the rest of the season. 

Edited October 9, 2018 by sturutter

[mark1948]

2 hours ago, sturutter said:

I think there is some serious underestimation here of the level of expertise that bookies have.

 

It's a bit boring and not really football, but the data can tell us so much, and is a massive thing. A lot of very clever people have access to a lot of complex data, and would love to beat the bookies. The bookies have to be better than them all. And they almost always are. Very very few people in the UK are able to make a living from betting on football. And it's not for lack of trying.

 

At each betting firm, someone will be employed as their championship expert. They know what to look for, have the best data, get to work 40 hours a week on it, and get the job because they are a shrewd judge. I would go as far as saying that the championship expert at any major betting company is a better judge than the biggest fan of any club. Yes, the fans may know things that can't be measured exactly, like team spirit and transfer rumours, but the bookies are pretty sharp on these too.

 

To use Leicester's 5000/1 shot as an argument against the bookies actually makes no sense at all. Instead, the fact there is one and only one winning 5000/1 shot of all the things you can bet on over all the years actually suggests that they're getting it about right.

 

If the bookies are pricing things correctly, then once in a while, you should see 50/1 shots come in, and once in a very long while, even a 5000/1 shot. There's no denying a roulette wheel is priced correctly. If you stood and watched if for long enough, eventually you would see the number 1 come in three times in a row. A very long shot; that's your Leicester moment. The Leicester season was actually a great thing for the bookies, as it will be remembered for a long as a way some people won a lot of money, because they "got it wrong." They didn't. 

 

I'm not saying this to say anything negative at all about Wednesday, as things are very positive at the moment, but I'll just say, that the fact the real experts have us at about 14th favourites in the league makes for bad news for us.

 

 

 

 

 

Nah you got that wrong. Its bad news for the experts. Well not exactly, if we did win the Championship the bookies would trouser all of the bets on the fancied teams so it's good for the bookies if an outsider wins.

[theowlsman]

Just put £2 on and our odds were slashed by half.

[sage owl]

I wouldn't put any of my money on us going up if you offered me 50 -1 . Based purely on watching most of our games this season. 

I honestly think we're over achieving being where we are with our levels of performance. 

I'd love to be wrong though. 

[Jim]

I think a lot of it is down to Lukuhay as he’s not a name or has a proven track record here.

 

I’ve noticed we’re usually a decent price for a win. You could’ve got 3/1 on us at Hills to beat Bristol City. I get the feeling we’re going to go right under the radar this season even if we hang around where we are in the table for long spells.

 

I’m also quietly confident with all the attention on United and Leeds as well as some others, we’re likely to continue plodding on without any pressure or expectations and I suspect that’s just how Jos likes it?

Edited October 9, 2018 by Great Big Galaa

[Jeff King's dog]

17 minutes ago, Great Big Galaa said:

I’m also quietly confident with all the attention on United and Leeds as well as some others, we’re likely to continue plodding on without any pressure or expectations and I suspect that’s just how Jos likes it?

 

I don't see a lot of attention on United. Most of them can't see past Leeds, Baggies and are still talking about a Stoke resurgence.

 

The crapper big name pundits know nowt about the Championship hence the Frank Lampard's Derby County rounduns. All the talk about Thierry Henry/John Terry 'dream ticket' is so disrespectful to the likes of Wednesday, United, Brentford, Boro and Norwich who are all unfashionable at the moment.