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Why don't the bookies fancy our chances?


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So according to SkyBet there are 15 teams more likely to make the top 6 than us. Teams like Wigan, Blackburn and Birmingham are seen as more likely to make the play offs.

 

Why don't they fancy our chances? (or rather why do they see us as rank outsiders?)

 

Do they know something we don't re January or do they just not rate us? I can't believe the odds are down to just how much money has been placed on other sides.

 

 

 

 

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The odds are entirely a function of bets placed. Bookies don't take views. Bets placed in a weakly traded market. In so far as there is a reason it might be that the expected goals analysts tend to show us as one of the weaker teams. There will also be lag effects. We look a bit more likely than we did three weeks ago but there is very little cash in these markets.

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1 minute ago, thewookieisdown said:

The odds are entirely a function of bets placed. Bookies don't take views. Bets placed in a weakly traded market. In so far as there is a reason it might be that the expected goals analysts tend to show us as one of the weaker teams. There will also be lag effects. We look a bit more likely than we did three weeks ago but there is very little cash in these markets.

Bookies do take views because they make the market otherwise every team would be the same price at the start of the season. And they have analyst watch every game. The one who watches us must think we're črąp which suits me

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9 minutes ago, Castleford Owl said:

6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous.

 

I got 15/8 on top half finish a couple of weeks ago!  And then found out I could have got 11/4! The bookies are starting to receive more money on us, clearly. 

 

But the prices offered are still crazy imo.

 

The form table since the Brentford game:

 

https://www.transfermarkt.com/championship/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2018&min=4&max=13

Edited by Almat
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7 minutes ago, Castleford Owl said:

6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous.

That's top half finish and you can get 7/4 at BV. 14/1 top 6 finish which is absolutely massive compared with the other teams there or there abouts

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4 minutes ago, Almat said:

 

I got 15/8 on top half finish a couple of weeks ago! The bookies are starting to receive more money on us, clearly. 

They were 3/1 after we drew with the baggies with BV

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7 minutes ago, Drewswfc said:

They were 3/1 after we drew with the baggies with BV

 

It's crazy TBH. But it really is down to lack of monies being lumped on because that's how the bookies work odds out. You just have to look at some of the ridiculous negativity on here to realise that not much money is going on us. I'm not in any way a gambler but even I couldn't resist having a punt at the prices that have been on offer the last few weeks. Since the Brentford game we are one point behind the league leaders and you can still get 100/1 on us winning the league! I lumped on at 200/1 at SkyBet.

 

edit: the 2 teams above us in the form table since Brentford are 33/5 and 6/1 to win the league!

Edited by Almat
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43 minutes ago, RUMBELOWS91 said:

So according to SkyBet there are 15 teams more likely to make the top 6 than us. Teams like Wigan, Blackburn and Birmingham are seen as more likely to make the play offs.

 

Why don't they fancy our chances? (or rather why do they see us as rank outsiders?)

 

Do they know something we don't re January or do they just not rate us? I can't believe the odds are down to just how much money has been placed on other sides.

 

 

 

 

I highly doubt the bookies know anything about what may or may not happen in January.

 

In fact, no one has a clue about what may or may not happen in January. It's just idle speculation from fans on forums like this. 

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37 minutes ago, thewookieisdown said:

The odds are entirely a function of bets placed. Bookies don't take views. Bets placed in a weakly traded market. In so far as there is a reason it might be that the expected goals analysts tend to show us as one of the weaker teams. There will also be lag effects. We look a bit more likely than we did three weeks ago but there is very little cash in these markets.

That’s not true at all.

 

Weight of money undeniably plays a part but they have employees whom are paid to do nothing but take a view.

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1 minute ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

That’s not true at all.

 

Weight of money undeniably plays a part but they have employees whom are paid to do nothing but take a view.

 

Agree but at this stage in the season weight of money would surely sway the price more than analysis.?

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It is both really.

 

They will probably do the bulk of the research before offering the first odds. Thereafter they will monitor the situation so that they can alter odds before people can take advantage of any change of someones chances. Also, if they take a lot of money on anyone they will alter the odds to try to balance the book and keep their profit margin.

 

 

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