RUMBELOWS91 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 So according to SkyBet there are 15 teams more likely to make the top 6 than us. Teams like Wigan, Blackburn and Birmingham are seen as more likely to make the play offs. Why don't they fancy our chances? (or rather why do they see us as rank outsiders?) Do they know something we don't re January or do they just not rate us? I can't believe the odds are down to just how much money has been placed on other sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardo Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Maybe it is because we don't really fancy our chances. Lump a load of money on and I'm sure the odds will shorten..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiamAP22D Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 The more people bet, the shorter the odds. Obviously it's not just the bookies that don't fancy us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewookieisdown Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 The odds are entirely a function of bets placed. Bookies don't take views. Bets placed in a weakly traded market. In so far as there is a reason it might be that the expected goals analysts tend to show us as one of the weaker teams. There will also be lag effects. We look a bit more likely than we did three weeks ago but there is very little cash in these markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewswfc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 minute ago, thewookieisdown said: The odds are entirely a function of bets placed. Bookies don't take views. Bets placed in a weakly traded market. In so far as there is a reason it might be that the expected goals analysts tend to show us as one of the weaker teams. There will also be lag effects. We look a bit more likely than we did three weeks ago but there is very little cash in these markets. Bookies do take views because they make the market otherwise every team would be the same price at the start of the season. And they have analyst watch every game. The one who watches us must think we're črąp which suits me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nswowl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Bookies have been known to get it wrong. Ask Leicester fans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross owl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 They have spoken to the refs of this division 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castleford Owl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreshOwl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 Lack of research Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Castleford Owl said: 6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous. I got 15/8 on top half finish a couple of weeks ago! And then found out I could have got 11/4! The bookies are starting to receive more money on us, clearly. But the prices offered are still crazy imo. The form table since the Brentford game: https://www.transfermarkt.com/championship/formtabelle/wettbewerb/GB2?saison_id=2018&min=4&max=13 Edited October 9, 2018 by Almat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewswfc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Castleford Owl said: 6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous. That's top half finish and you can get 7/4 at BV. 14/1 top 6 finish which is absolutely massive compared with the other teams there or there abouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castleford Owl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Castleford Owl said: 6/4 currently for a Top 6 finish. I would say that is very generous. I meant Top Half... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewswfc Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Almat said: I got 15/8 on top half finish a couple of weeks ago! The bookies are starting to receive more money on us, clearly. They were 3/1 after we drew with the baggies with BV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Drewswfc said: They were 3/1 after we drew with the baggies with BV It's crazy TBH. But it really is down to lack of monies being lumped on because that's how the bookies work odds out. You just have to look at some of the ridiculous negativity on here to realise that not much money is going on us. I'm not in any way a gambler but even I couldn't resist having a punt at the prices that have been on offer the last few weeks. Since the Brentford game we are one point behind the league leaders and you can still get 100/1 on us winning the league! I lumped on at 200/1 at SkyBet. edit: the 2 teams above us in the form table since Brentford are 33/5 and 6/1 to win the league! Edited October 9, 2018 by Almat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiJ Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 43 minutes ago, RUMBELOWS91 said: So according to SkyBet there are 15 teams more likely to make the top 6 than us. Teams like Wigan, Blackburn and Birmingham are seen as more likely to make the play offs. Why don't they fancy our chances? (or rather why do they see us as rank outsiders?) Do they know something we don't re January or do they just not rate us? I can't believe the odds are down to just how much money has been placed on other sides. I highly doubt the bookies know anything about what may or may not happen in January. In fact, no one has a clue about what may or may not happen in January. It's just idle speculation from fans on forums like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 37 minutes ago, thewookieisdown said: The odds are entirely a function of bets placed. Bookies don't take views. Bets placed in a weakly traded market. In so far as there is a reason it might be that the expected goals analysts tend to show us as one of the weaker teams. There will also be lag effects. We look a bit more likely than we did three weeks ago but there is very little cash in these markets. That’s not true at all. Weight of money undeniably plays a part but they have employees whom are paid to do nothing but take a view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIGHERSTATE Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 We've had a few decent results Think we need to calm down a bit and just see where it takes us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Almat Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 1 minute ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said: That’s not true at all. Weight of money undeniably plays a part but they have employees whom are paid to do nothing but take a view. Agree but at this stage in the season weight of money would surely sway the price more than analysis.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 It is both really. They will probably do the bulk of the research before offering the first odds. Thereafter they will monitor the situation so that they can alter odds before people can take advantage of any change of someones chances. Also, if they take a lot of money on anyone they will alter the odds to try to balance the book and keep their profit margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 The bookies will follow algorithms and trends very similar to this to judge the expected future performance of each team. its not difficult to see why they don’t rate our chances. https://experimental361.com/2018/09/30/scatter-graphics-championship-29-sep-2018/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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