Genuine Top 6 Contenders or An Easy Start?

[flo]

On 27/09/2018 at 13:48, CraigSGM said:

 

Pick up points against Villa, Leeds and Forest to guarantee our place in the top 6. 

 

Failing that, easy 3 points at Norwich straight after when Agent Rhodes scores a hattrick of own goals. 

Im pretty sure we always smash Norwich whenever we play them towards the end of the season. They must hate playing us.

Edited September 28, 2018 by flo

[Lord Snooty]

On 26/09/2018 at 22:12, airborne_rat_of_s6 said:

5-7 points from the next three games and I will 

 

... don't use them all at once!

 

 

Edited October 8, 2018 by Lord Snooty

[Birley Owl 1867]

Think it's been confirmed.

 

We're genuine top 6 contenders.

[thewookieisdown]

still don't feel we are quite good enough but the results are there for all to see.

 

What's obviously true is that we haven't had an easy start. Of our first twelve, five games - WBA, Leeds Stoke, Brentford, Forest - against side that legitimately have at least play off aspirations. Wigan away looked a nasty opening fixture and so it proved. Villa have a hugely expensive squad.

 

It's been a tough challenging first dozen. 

 

 

[Past Member]

37 minutes ago, Birley Owl 1867 said:

Think it's been confirmed.

 

We're genuine top 6 contenders.

 

Unfortunately I think you're right, it's the hope that kills us

As expected by game 12 our average opponents position is very close to the average. No more easy start affect, if there even was one.

 

 

 

 

[CraigSGM]

You'd have to say that the next 12 does look a little more straightforward than the last, although it certainly starts tricky. (And ends with the same opponent, interestingly)

 

1. Middlesbrough 

2. QPR

3. Birmingham

4. Norwich

5. Sheffield United

6. Derby

7. Bolton

8. Blackburn

9. Rotherham

10. Swansea

11. Preston

12. Middlesbrough

 

We could quite easily slip up against Boro. Our 2nd league defeat in the last 10 will obviously see an absolute meltdown on here and calls for Jos to be sacked, Bannan not good enough, Westwood to be brought back etc. Personally, I'm not worried about that game whichever way it goes, because the run afterwards looks good. 

 

QPR, Birmingham and Norwich. I don't want to underestimate them, but we have to be looking at 7 or 9 points from those 3. 

 

Derby & Sheffield United. Anything from those two would be a bonus in the long run. 2 or 3 points would be acceptable. Both tough games, so a couple of draws or one win is fine. (Obviously the win would have to come against Utd. I couldn't stand another loss to them, and it would be even better to knock them off their perch if they're still sitting pretty in the top two.)

 

Bolton, Blackburn then Rotherham is the perfect little run regardless of what happens against Derby and Utd. If we're full of confidence, they're the sort of teams that we could absolutely hammer. If we're struggling, they're lacking any real quality so could be handy fixtures to get back on track. 

 

Swansea are a bit of an unknown. They're under performing, but certainly have the quality in the squad. It could click at any minute, come December they could be a very tough opposition. Or, it could go the other way and they could really start to lose confidence and plummet towards the bottom. 

 

Potentially awkward timing to play Preston too. If they're still hovering around the bottom 3 they could make a change in management just before the window opens. 

 

Then Boro again. 

 

I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be looking for 7-8 wins from the next 12. For me, it's all about how quickly we react if and when we do slip up.  

 

[Lord Snooty]

2 hours ago, thewookieisdown said:

still don't feel we are quite good enough but the results are there for all to see.

 

What's obviously true is that we haven't had an easy start. Of our first twelve, five games - WBA, Leeds Stoke, Brentford, Forest - against side that legitimately have at least play off aspirations. Wigan away looked a nasty opening fixture and so it proved. Villa have a hugely expensive squad.

 

It's been a tough challenging first dozen. 

 

 

 

In many ways it's always the 'the bankers' that worry me.

The games where we might expect  a result. 

[optimisticowl]

6 minutes ago, Lord Snooty said:

 

In many ways it's always the 'the bankers' that worry me.

The games where we might expect  a result. 

 

I really must stop putting off my eye test, when I manage to mistake a b for a w, I reckon that I’m ready. 

[Southie_Owl]

A good barometer of success is comparing your fixtures/results to others, as you play different teams at different points in the season.

 

For example the pigs have also played, Bristol City, Millwall, Hull and Villa and got 9 points. We’ve got 10 points from those games 

 

I think I’m right in saying in the next 12 games the pigs are still to play: 

 

West Brom, Leeds, Forest, Wednesday, Brentford, Derby, Stoke. 

 

If they can get wins, and still be on top after playing these teams then fair play to them. But right now I would doubt they are good enough 

 

 

[S26 Owl]

We aren't top 6 material realistically. We aren't as consistent and don't have as much quality as the top 6/8 teams in the division. The clean sheet thing is a worry but lets just enjoy over achieving whilst we're doing it

[djorkaeff]

We’re weak at RB. 

 

Onomah, Hector and Penny have filled holes. 

 

Reach, FF, Baz, lees, Fletcher would get in most teams and we have plenty of other options up too. 

 

We we have to give it our best as a collective. 

[Sultan_Pepper]

30 minutes ago, S26 Owl said:

We aren't top 6 material realistically. We aren't as consistent and don't have as much quality as the top 6/8 teams in the division. The clean sheet thing is a worry but lets just enjoy over achieving whilst we're doing it

As daft as it sounds I don't think many teams in this division are top 6 material. All teams will have a bad run. Any that can avoid it will probably go up.

 

I know we've been saying it for ages but we do have more strength to come back into the squad that other team's don't. We do have the potential to kick on

Edited October 8, 2018 by Sultan_Pepper

[mancowl08]

I bet Cardiff fans last season were saying they weren't top 6 material. Anything can happen in this league! Just got to get behind the team, support them through thick and thin., .....and see where it takes us! 

[sherlyegg]

45 minutes ago, S26 Owl said:

but lets just enjoy over achieving whilst we're doing it

Which games did we over achieve in?

Thought we were 6th on merit mesen

[Nero]

Neither

[109Waddle]

There are no easy games in the Championship. When you think it’s an easier fixture that’s when complacency kicks in.

[NYCOWL]

I’m going to imagine that after 12 games everyone has had a pretty similar start in terms of opposition played?

[Owls-Fan]

1 hour ago, Southie_Owl said:

A good barometer of success is comparing your fixtures/results to others, as you play different teams at different points in the season.

 

For example the pigs have also played, Bristol City, Millwall, Hull and Villa and got 9 points. We’ve got 10 points from those games 

 

I think I’m right in saying in the next 12 games the pigs are still to play: 

 

West Brom, Leeds, Forest, Wednesday, Brentford, Derby, Stoke. 

 

If they can get wins, and still be on top after playing these teams then fair play to them. But right now I would doubt they are good enough 

 

 

 

Great post, easy to overlook the pigs have had an easier start. Let’s see how they do from now onwards 

[Bluesteel]

6 hours ago, CraigSGM said:

You'd have to say that the next 12 does look a little more straightforward than the last, although it certainly starts tricky. (And ends with the same opponent, interestingly)

 

1. Middlesbrough 

2. QPR

3. Birmingham

4. Norwich

5. Sheffield United

6. Derby

7. Bolton

8. Blackburn

9. Rotherham

10. Swansea

11. Preston

12. Middlesbrough

 

We could quite easily slip up against Boro. Our 2nd league defeat in the last 10 will obviously see an absolute meltdown on here and calls for Jos to be sacked, Bannan not good enough, Westwood to be brought back etc. Personally, I'm not worried about that game whichever way it goes, because the run afterwards looks good. 

 

QPR, Birmingham and Norwich. I don't want to underestimate them, but we have to be looking at 7 or 9 points from those 3. 

 

Derby & Sheffield United. Anything from those two would be a bonus in the long run. 2 or 3 points would be acceptable. Both tough games, so a couple of draws or one win is fine. (Obviously the win would have to come against Utd. I couldn't stand another loss to them, and it would be even better to knock them off their perch if they're still sitting pretty in the top two.)

 

Bolton, Blackburn then Rotherham is the perfect little run regardless of what happens against Derby and Utd. If we're full of confidence, they're the sort of teams that we could absolutely hammer. If we're struggling, they're lacking any real quality so could be handy fixtures to get back on track. 

 

Swansea are a bit of an unknown. They're under performing, but certainly have the quality in the squad. It could click at any minute, come December they could be a very tough opposition. Or, it could go the other way and they could really start to lose confidence and plummet towards the bottom. 

 

Potentially awkward timing to play Preston too. If they're still hovering around the bottom 3 they could make a change in management just before the window opens. 

 

Then Boro again. 

 

I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be looking for 7-8 wins from the next 12. For me, it's all about how quickly we react if and when we do slip up.  

 

 

I don’t think we can afford to break it into hard and easy runs of fixtures. For some reason it just never works out that way. Obviously it’s better to play a side who are slightly less likely to punish you but sometimes when Wednesday are expected to struggle they acquit themselves well but then slip up when expected to win. 

 

If we can keep beating the bottom six teams as well, that will show a big change in mentality from the Carvalhal era where we always seemed to get caught out.

[hirstys_achilles]

I like all these threads that look into stats and show trends from previous seasons to hopefully apply to this season and predict roughly what we can expect. Most teams who manage promotion have a much simpler philosophy. JL is known to be good at getting promotion in Germany. Neil Warnock is perhaps Englands equivalent at having an exceptional record of achieving promotion with his teams. I believe the trick is to not lose at home and at least draw (win as many as possible). Away games pick up points when and where possible. JL wanting us to be unpredictable and have players able to play in numerous different positions and formations is am indicator how his tactics change from home and away games. I have lost count how many times in away games the first half is very dour, I think this is a ploy to take the atmosphere away from the fans. 2nd half we change and take teams by surprise. It may be luck, but I think it happens to often to be just chance and this is a ploy JL uses.