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RyanSWFC

The Graph Thread 2018/19 - Looking at the bigger picture

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if we have the kind of late run we had in CC's second season..we could scrape in. A point away at Derby dosnt take us out the race, a loss would have, thats how fine things stand and will stand for the rest of the season, we need to win all our home games and get 3 points away to lower table teams. Hope Bruce can change our luck in that department.

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1 hour ago, RyanSWFC said:

Update after Derby away:

 

Untitled.png

 

Last season after 36 games

6th Boro 58 pts

7th United 58 pts

74 points good enough for a sixth place finish.

 

16/17 season after 36 games

6th Wednesday 62 pts

7th Fulham 58 pts

76 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

15/16 season after 36 games

6th Ipswich 58 pts

7th Wednesday 56 pts

70 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

 

Today after 36 games

6th Derby 54 pts

7th Bristol C 53 pts

 

Looks likely to be a very low points total for 6th place this season. Could be as low as 67-68 points.

 

If so, we are MUCH closer to the PO line. Wins against Bolton and Blackburn and we would be touching the likely 18/19 PO line.


 

 
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3 hours ago, Holmowl said:

 

Last season after 36 games

6th Boro 58 pts

7th United 58 pts

74 points good enough for a sixth place finish.

 

16/17 season after 36 games

6th Wednesday 62 pts

7th Fulham 58 pts

76 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

15/16 season after 36 games

6th Ipswich 58 pts

7th Wednesday 56 pts

70 points good enough for a sixth place finish

 

 

Today after 36 games

6th Derby 54 pts

7th Bristol C 53 pts

 

Looks likely to be a very low points total for 6th place this season. Could be as low as 67-68 points.

 

If so, we are MUCH closer to the PO line. Wins against Bolton and Blackburn and we would be touching the likely 18/19 PO line.


 

 
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Derby on 55 now, but you're right you'd expect the 6th placed team to be closer to 60 points at this stage. That suggests a relatively low PO line this year, barring a good run by one of the chasing pack.

We'd need 20+ points from the last 10, even considering a low bar. We've taken 17 from the last 10, so its not out of the question.

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Often this season the graph has given us some cause for optimism during the difficult moments. But after tonight's win I think it shows that we still have a lot of work to do. Only 3 points off the playoffs but the teams around us (and there are a lot of them) all have 1-2 games in hand. We'll probably need around 21 points from the possible 27 remaining, so 7ish wins out of our last 9. Bearing mind we have trips to Leeds and Norwich to come it is pretty unlikely. But not impossible.

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12 minutes ago, RyanSWFC said:

Often this season the graph has given us some cause for optimism during the difficult moments. But after tonight's win I think it shows that we still have a lot of work to do. Only 3 points off the playoffs but the teams around us (and there are a lot of them) all have 1-2 games in hand. We'll probably need around 21 points from the possible 27 remaining, so 7ish wins out of our last 9. Bearing mind we have trips to Leeds and Norwich to come it is pretty unlikely. But not impossible.

It is a difficult sell to say its unlikely when it's currently only 3 points. I think the play off target will be lower than normal because of the very fact we are so bunched. I think 70/1pts will make it.

 

The key is how we perform in the 3 April home games for me. 

 

Love this thread though Ryan and thanks for keeping it going

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Teams are taking points of each other. Teams above us have to play each other, the only thing we can do is keep winning. Any team in the top 14 who can string 5 wins together could see themselves in playoff place. 

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The yellow line falters...but goes inexorably.... upwards.

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5 times in the last decade 7th spot has been around the 68 - 71 pts margin. Be just our luck it's around the 14/15 season mark of 78 pts. Can't see that as this seasons marker though, think it'll be around the 12/13 season mark of 68 pts or less. Just need to plough on and better last seasons 9 game finish with 19 pts. That'll put us on a 71 pt finish or above. Not giving up just yet. 

 

COME ON WEDNESDAY !!! 

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Love this thread. Made me sign up after many years of lurking just so I could like the posts. 

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13 minutes ago, Bravado said:

Love this thread. Made me sign up after many years of lurking just so I could like the posts. 

 

There, you've broken yer duck. Don't waste em. 

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1 hour ago, RyanSWFC said:

Often this season the graph has given us some cause for optimism during the difficult moments. But after tonight's win I think it shows that we still have a lot of work to do. Only 3 points off the playoffs but the teams around us (and there are a lot of them) all have 1-2 games in hand. We'll probably need around 21 points from the possible 27 remaining, so 7ish wins out of our last 9. Bearing mind we have trips to Leeds and Norwich to come it is pretty unlikely. But not impossible.

 

As others are saying Ryan it does look very likely that 69/70 is this year’s 6th place target.

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35 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

 

As others are saying Ryan it does look very likely that 69/70 is this year’s 6th place target.

Certainly looks that why. 6 wins from 9 needed minimum. With 5 home games still to come too. 

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2 hours ago, Mystic Neg said:

It is a difficult sell to say its unlikely when it's currently only 3 points.

 

We could be back in the bottom half in a few hours though... :ph34r:

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15 hours ago, Dan™ said:

 

We could be back in the bottom half in a few hours though... :ph34r:

 

Boooooo

 

Who the ‘k

Who the ‘k

Who the ‘kin ell is Dan

Who the ‘kin ell is Dan

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RYAN

 

We need you mate!

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We're on 55 points. During both playoff seasons we were on 62 points at this stage.  A win at Stoke and this all gets very interesting.

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even if we dont make if you look at where we were after 22 matches its a heck of a turn around!

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