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A look at the relegation situation


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So, there's been some murmurings because of our form, so let's look at who else is in the relegation fight with 10 games to go.

 

#24 Sunderland.

9 points behind us with a much worse goal difference, so 10 points needed to overtake us.

Still to play 3 teams in the fight for promotion: Derby (a), Fulham (a) and Wolves (h). Unlikely to get anything from those.

Also playing Preston, Leeds and Norwich. Unlikely to get anything there either.

Games against us, Burton, QPR and Reading look their best hope, but there's 0% chance of them overtaking us.

With 8 points form their last 5 home and away games, and given their remaining fixtures, they're certs for relegation.

 

#23 Burton

8 points behind us with a much worse goal difference, so 9 points needed to overtake us.

Brutal fixtures remaining: Bristol, United, Wolves, Cardiff, Boro, Preston and Derby. All likely to give no points, given Burton's results.

4 games they have a shot at: Birmingham (a), Hull (h), Sunderland (a) and Bolton (h).

Bolton has found some form, and even if they win all three of the other games they're unlikely to overtake us (we'd need 1 draw and 9 losses to stay ahead).

For me they're nailed on to go down as well. They have a little hop as thyey seem to get the odd result against relegation rivals, but their run-in is horrible.

 

#22 Birmingham

7 points behind us with a much worse goal difference, so 8 points needed to overtake us.

Still to play Cardiff, Bristol, Wolves, United, and Fulham. No points likely there.

Currently on 6 straight losses, which could easily become 10 given their fixtures.
From the relegation teams they play: Hull (h), Bolton (a) and Burton (h). Their home for is awful tho and Bolton are the side in form.

Looking really likely to not get out of the relegation spots.

 

#21 Barnsley

5 points behind us with a slightly worse goal difference, so maybe only 5 points needed to overtake us.
Still to play Cardiff, Bristol, United and Derby. But then have a lot of middle of the road sides who will have nothing to play for and so might give up a point or 3.

Can see they sneaking a handful of points and should still be in the league next season.

 

#20 Hull

4 points behind us with a better goal difference, so 4 points needed to overtake us.

Tough games remaining: Villa, Wolves, Bristol, Cardiff.

But despite being one of the worst teams away from home, they can spring the odd weird result.

Should keep them clear of the drop.

 

#19 Reading

3 points behind us with a better goal difference, so 3 points needed to overtake us.

Despite their dreadful home form they're piecing draw together and so should pick up enough to stay clear.

Their remaining fixture are mostly middle of the road teams who don't have much to play for.

#18 Bolton
2 points behind us with a much worse goal difference, so 3 points needed to overtake us.

Have started picking up the odd win at home and some away draws.
Yet to play Villa, Derby and Wolves, but have 4 relegation 6 pointers, which on recent form they do well in.

Should be well clear really. Likely to finish above us.

 

#17 Wednesday

Looking very likely that 40 points will see a team safe and we're only 3 points off that.

Even with our recent terrible form it looks like we'll finish 18, barring an amazing turn around by one of the bottom clubs.

The odds on all of them pulling off a turnaround seem pretty long (with Bolton already seeming to be on theirs).

We have 10 games left and if we pick up even just a few draws in that time then we should be good to stay up.

After that the reset button is pushed, dead wood let go, big players back fit, the whole squad doing proper training and next season can be very different.

 

 

 

 

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Given our form, the worst of the lot, I’m still more than a bit worried that we’ll find some way of defeating the odds, and dropping into the bottom three As I said, our form has been wretched, and we just have to hope those points we earned under Carlos, are enough to save us

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23 minutes ago, gurujuan said:

Given our form, the worst of the lot, I’m still more than a bit worried that we’ll find some way of defeating the odds, and dropping into the bottom three As I said, our form has been wretched, and we just have to hope those points we earned under Carlos, are enough to save us

 

It's not the worst of the lot tho, is it. We've lost 4 in a row.. Birmingham have lost 6 in a row.. 7 in a row if you count the cup game.

 

Most teams have 5 home and 5 away games left (a couple have a spare fixture delayed from the weather).

Looking at points from the last 5 home and aways for each team:

 

10 Bolton

9 Hull

8 Reading

8 Burton

7 Wednesday
7 Birmingham

6 Sunderland

 

So even after the worst run of results this season, we're still 7 points from 10. Another 7 points from 10 and we're probably comfortably safe.

In any case, our form is in no way the worst.

 

 

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I don’t think we’ll go down, but I’d be amazed if we reach 50 points, which is pretty shambolic really

 

Id take a guess that we’ll probably win 2 and draw 2 and lose 6 of our remaining 10 games, giving us 45 points

 

:picnic:

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Since I got worried about relegation, I have thought that 43 would see us safe, and maybe a point in hand.  Given potential for returning players after the Leeds game I feel reasonably ok and this analysis suggests we really may not need that. 

 

But. I shall be glad when it is all over...

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1 hour ago, handworth52 said:

lucky for us we were not in a relegation fight last season or in 2012 or we would be goners ,55points in 2012 to stop up ,that was crazy we would have been 10 points behind that this season.

 

 

  Didn't we go down on 53 last time . Good job other teams aren't as good this season . 

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