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Does it really "even itself out"?

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Does it balls even itself out! Never has. Just what pundits say and usually fans of clubs near the top of the league that get every decision.

 

Even if matches were 50/50 creating he same chances etc, players in the area and tackles. It still wouldn't even out.

 

Now compare day Man united to Palace this season. United have much quicker direct players that will see more of the ball and be in the opposition box more. Whereas pace will rarely get that (especially with Zaha out). So imo for every wrongly denied penalty Palace get Man U in theory should receive many more turned down. This on the other hand will mean that Man U would get many more wrong penalty decisions in their favour too as they are in position to claim them. Getting those decisions matter much more to a team down at the bottom who are trying to nick wins by the odd goal. Then add on red card decisions. Teams that have have more possession are likely to get less wrong decisions. The team chasing the game will get many more. They will make more tackles etc, meaning more yellow and red cards. So those decisions again won't even themselves out. Place for example might have 4 wrongful red cars given to them this season, but only receive one for an opposing team. 

 

Basically all I'm trying to say is per penalty appeal or red card appeal they might even out, but down to a teams style of play and quality of player it really won't and teams near the bottom will get much more punished. That's also excluding bad luck and inept officials. 

 

Easy made up example. Number of tackles wrongfully leading to red cards = 1 in 50. Man U make 50 of these tackles, 1 man wrongfully sent off, Place make 250 and 5 sent off.

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11 hours ago, DMX said:

I doubt it evens itself out and I doubt it is the same for all sides over the course of the year. Until video tech comes in we'll just have to put up

yeah - sooner the better 

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I'm sure when we have had decisions go our way we have said ah well that makes up for that other time. Things happen. You just got a make sure as a team we are doing our best and hopefully things go our way. 

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There was an identical situation at 0-0 with Roofe (I think) wrongly getting flagged as offside the difference being Wildsmith made a great save/block but if he'd have score it would have incorrectly got chalked off.

That said and I'm certain it's not deliberate but I do think physiologically official are influence by certain factors such as "bigger" team against smaller team, "honest" players (e.g. Lineker never getting a booking in his whole career) against perceived "deceivers" (FF getting sent off at Hull),etc. which means it'll never truly even itself up and the likes of Man U / Liverpool will always have more of the rub of the green against teams like Stoke for example. 

 

 

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The Hooper "goal" at Birmingham was particularly annoying as if it had rightly stood, he'd be going into the Bolton game with a chance of scoring in eight consecutive games, which would be (I believe) an SWFC record.

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Seen a few posts mentioning Burton away. Yes the player should have been sent off but it's hard to see how the result would have been affected so early in the game. As for Boyd's goal it could have put us 2-0 up (and a likely win) but there wasn't a conclusive angle. My gut opinion was it should have stood but I chose to leave it.

 

Some interesting discussion. What frutrates me is the penalties that are awarded over any particular weekend (some of them very soft) and I always think "we never get those!"

 

Our penalty count over  a number of seasons now has been very low.

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Just now, meggoisgod said:

you make your own luck in football

 

but yes I do believe over 40 odd games it does even out

That's why i'm doing this.

 

If it is true we are due some major luck over the coming weeks that should net us 3-5 points we shouldn't get.

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I'm sure the teams we've narrowly beaten like Fulham and Brentford will point to some moment when we were lucky.

 

If you throw a coin up 1,000 times I'm pretty sure it would come up heads 500 times +/- 20 either way.   Sure someone in the betting industry will have the formula.

 

We have been unlucky this season but folk forget our REAL luck.

 

Playing Man Utd in 1991 Lge CF about 3 days before they faced Barca in a CWC Final.   We were just a warm-up game to them.

Getting promo in 1991 under Atkinson when we only finished 3rd in Lge 2.  Any other season we would have just been in play-offs.

Blades losing top scorer Ched Evans just when they were on verge of promotion- leaving us to scrape past them.  And he wasn't even guilty.

That dodgy penalty against Hartlepool at Cardiff.  My unbiased mate reckons it was never a pen.   We were 2-1 down with about 12 minutes to go and not looking like scoring.

 

That's four huge decisions in our favour.   Any more?

 

No-one remembers our good luck.... just the bad.

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6 minutes ago, Lincs Owl said:

Playing Man Utd in 1991 Lge CF about 3 days before they faced Barca in a CWC Final.   We were just a warm-up game to them.

 

Your memory might be playing tricks on you there: we actually played them 3 days before they faced Legia Warsaw in the second leg of the SF. However, Man U had already won the first leg, away, 3-1, so playing us wasn't that much of a problem for them.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Lincs Owl said:

If you throw a coin up 1,000 times I'm pretty sure it would come up heads 500 times +/- 20 either way.   Sure someone in the betting industry will have the formula.

 

Hmm, I'm no bookie but I will do my best for you.

 

Its all about the Bell Curve innit. Standard deviation for 1000 coin tosses (2 possible outcomes) would be 

 

1/2 x Square Root of 1000=16 (sigma).

 

Using Bell Curve, 68% of the time, the results would fall within the standard deviation so approximately two-thirds of the time, the result would be between 484 and 516. 

 

95% of the time, variation would be within 2 sigma (32) so 19 times out of 20, you would get somewhere between 468 and 532 heads.

 

To your original question the probability of getting 500 heads +/-20 is around 78%. 20 is 1.25 sigma (16x1.25=20) and the Bell Curve shows probability of getting within a 1.25 sigma range to be 78% or thereabouts.

 

Should be clear as mud now.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by londonowl

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Is the logic skewed here.... because how do we know what the other clubs have had happen in their games and how many points they feel they have lost. I think thats what they mean by evens itself out... its not just for and against but similar incidents happen to the other teams too. So we might be somewhere between 3rd and 7th but Burton albion might think they should be top of the league and we should be 20th because of all the other perceived injustices.

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3 hours ago, Lincs Owl said:

I'm sure the teams we've narrowly beaten like Fulham and Brentford will point to some moment when we were lucky.

 

If you throw a coin up 1,000 times I'm pretty sure it would come up heads 500 times +/- 20 either way.   Sure someone in the betting industry will have the formula.

 

We have been unlucky this season but folk forget our REAL luck.

 

Playing Man Utd in 1991 Lge CF about 3 days before they faced Barca in a CWC Final.   We were just a warm-up game to them.

Getting promo in 1991 under Atkinson when we only finished 3rd in Lge 2.  Any other season we would have just been in play-offs.

Blades losing top scorer Ched Evans just when they were on verge of promotion- leaving us to scrape past them.  And he wasn't even guilty.

That dodgy penalty against Hartlepool at Cardiff.  My unbiased mate reckons it was never a pen.   We were 2-1 down with about 12 minutes to go and not looking like scoring.

 

That's four huge decisions in our favour.   Any more?

 

No-one remembers our good luck.... just the bad.

 

Rumbelows cup- so we only won that game due to Man U being tired? Barmy. Btw Carlton was banned for that game because he had a drink of water in a game previously.

Did they change the rules mid-way through the season about finishing 3rd/ playoffs? Pointless 

Evans - his choice to do what he did 

Hartlepool - Can see why it was given, we've had much dodgier pens given against us and had stonewall pens not given for us, could've easily had a couple of pens this season, which we haven't.

 

4 huge decisions you mentioned counting over 26 yrs, Wow, even those are dubious..

 

If ever I'm in trouble I don't want your representation, 

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The League Cup final was April 21 and the CWC Final was May 15. It was three days prior to the semi-final second leg, although they were already 3-1 up from the away leg against the might of Legia Warsaw.

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On 02/10/2017 at 20:49, Finlux_Cup said:

Its one thing making mistakes ourselves, it's another putting up with dodgy official decisions.

 

It's only our own mistakes we can control, no point getting wound up about the stuff outside of our control, especially long after the events 

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On 02/10/2017 at 20:45, mark77 said:

Seen this comment over the years and never known if it really is true.

 

Do decisions by officials even themselves out over a season? I'm gonna bookmark this over the season and keep track to see where we end up come May. Happy for peoples opinions on decisions. It's difficult to predict how the outcome of games would have ended up if decisions had gone another way but i'll try and keep it consistent both ways.

So far...

 

Preston (a) - Penalty given when Lees clearly played the ball from the side. Potentially 1 point lost.

 

QPR (H) - Blatant handball on the line which would have been penalty and red card. Potentially 2 points lost.

 

Cardiff away was potentially an offside equaliser but no definitive angle so will ignore that.

 

Birmingham (a) - Clear legal goal ruled out at 0-0. Every possibility that we can go on and win the game, 1-1 possibly. 1-3 points lost.

 

Leeds at home clear legal goal ruled out but didn't affect the result.

 

Cannot think of any decisions that have led us to gain points this season, happy to alter that opinion if I've forgot something obvious.

 

Currently 4-6 points lost due to officials decisions.

 

Should be sat somewhere between 7th and 3rd with one defeat out of 11 games...

Ok so clearly a point lost today thanks to the referee (which ultimately might cost Carlos his job).

 

5-7 points lost now. We should be on 21-23 points and sat in the top 6 with just one defeat...

 

It's interesting to see that if decisions had gone the way they should have done we would only be on one loss (granted it would be Sheff Utd) and the league position would look alot more healthier. Carlos said as much in his post match press conference. Regardless of your opinion on whether you want him to stay or not he has a point...

Edited by mark77

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On 14/10/2017 at 20:54, mark77 said:

Ok so clearly a point lost today thanks to the referee (which ultimately might cost Carlos his job).

 

5-7 points lost now. We should be on 21-23 points and sat in the top 6 with just one defeat...

 

It's interesting to see that if decisions had gone the way they should have done we would only be on one loss (granted it would be Sheff Utd) and the league position would look alot more healthier. Carlos said as much in his post match press conference. Regardless of your opinion on whether you want him to stay or not he has a point...

So 2 more points likely dropped after both penalty claims turned down. It's clear both should have been given.

 

7-9 points lost now. Still no points gained through poor refereeing decisions.

 

We would likely be on 31-33 points with VAR (used in the Bundesliga/Serie A) and sat in 4th...

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