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Fulham Scenario


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44 minutes ago, oh_weds_we_love_you said:

 

Leeds could be in a bit of a dilemma on Saturday.

 

If Fulham are losing to Brentford and Leeds are drawing with Norwich (the gap would be 2 points at that point), do Leeds throw the kitchen sink to beat Norwich and risk losing a point, which could put them in a position of losing out on the play-offs on goal difference (if Leeds then beat Wigan and Wednesday beat Fulham)?

 

It gets complicated. Fulham lose and Leeds draw, we don't need anything from the last game and Fulham do, so Leeds more likely to miss out.

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Guest RocketOwl

Enjoy reading these Fulham scenario posts because tbf the first 5 of these last week didn't really get to the crux. Hopefully by the time we play them we will have got to the bottom of it. 

 

look forward to tomorrow post.

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15 minutes ago, OxonOwl said:

 

It gets complicated. Fulham lose and Leeds draw, we don't need anything from the last game and Fulham do, so Leeds more likely to miss out.

 

I suspect that a full house at Hillsborough on the final game of the season will still result in a strong Wednesday performance, even if we don't need anything from the game. With the scenario you mention above, that could well work out for Leeds!

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1 hour ago, oh_weds_we_love_you said:

 

Leeds could be in a bit of a dilemma on Saturday.

 

If Fulham are losing to Brentford and Leeds are drawing with Norwich (the gap would be 2 points at that point), do Leeds throw the kitchen sink to beat Norwich and risk losing a point, which could put them in a position of losing out on the play-offs on goal difference (if Leeds then beat Wigan and Wednesday beat Fulham)?

I think the answer to that depends on what is happening elsewhere.

 

Lets say that we are losing too, Leeds know that two wins for them guarantees a play off place because it would be impossible for Fulham and us to get the necessary points to stop them. So they'd have to go for the win.

 

Having said that, even if we are winning and Fulham are losing (assuming Huddersfield and Reading have done the necessary) then Leeds know that if they only draw against Norwich they are reliant on an already safe Wednesday actually beating Fulham.

 

Therefore, in either scenario, I think Leeds have to go for the win.

 

The first half an hour will be vital on Saturday.  Early goals for Fulham and Wednesday will just completely kill the atmosphere at Elland Road.  Alternatively and early Ipswich goal and Leeds score, it will be panic stations!

Edited by HirstWhoScoredIt
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1 hour ago, Ever the pessimist said:

Weirdly we could prefer a Fulham win than defeat this weekend: say we don't win and Leeds do I would probably prefer to play a practically secured Fulham than one needing a result. 

 

As others have said though - let's just win our game and let everyone else do whatever. 

 

That said - I see Leeds are 5/1 to get in the play offs. I think those are decent odds as I am confident they will get 6 points.

Not sure how you can be confident they will get 6 points?! They have got one win in 6 haven't they? And haven't been playing well at all. Norwich are an inconsistent team granted, but they are more than capable of putting in an impressive performance. Especially with the pressure off. 

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3 minutes ago, Saxondale said:

Not sure how you can be confident they will get 6 points?! They have got one win in 6 haven't they? And haven't been playing well at all. Norwich are an inconsistent team granted, but they are more than capable of putting in an impressive performance. Especially with the pressure off. 

I think what makes me think they will probably get 6 points is knowing that if Wigan are down and Leeds need a win they will surely get the three points at Wigan.  I'd be absolutely gobsmacked if they didn't.

 

And then Norwich are just rubbish away (lost 12 conceding 44 goals).....

Edited by HirstWhoScoredIt
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13 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I think the answer to that depends on what is happening elsewhere.

 

Lets say that we are losing too, Leeds know that two wins for them guarantees a play off place because it would be impossible for Fulham and us to get the necessary points to stop them. So they'd have to go for the win.

 

Having said that, even if we are winning and Fulham are losing (assuming Huddersfield and Reading have done the necessary) then Leeds know that if they only draw against Norwich they are reliant on an already safe Wednesday actually beating Fulham.

 

Therefore, in either scenario, I think Leeds have to go for the win.

 

The first half an hour will be vital on Saturday.  Early goals for Fulham and Wednesday will just completely kill the atmosphere at Elland Road.  Alternatively and early Ipswich goal and Leeds score, it will be panic stations!

 

Glad we aren't in Leeds' position! Imagine the scoreline of 1-1 and throwing the kitchen sink at Norwich and end up losing 2-1, only for scores to pan out to mean Leeds miss out on goal difference to Fulham!

 

Can see Leeds, Fulham and Wednesday all drawing this weekend, which will work out ok for us.

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11 minutes ago, oh_weds_we_love_you said:

 

Glad we aren't in Leeds' position! Imagine the scoreline of 1-1 and throwing the kitchen sink at Norwich and end up losing 2-1, only for scores to pan out to mean Leeds miss out on goal difference to Fulham!

 

Can see Leeds, Fulham and Wednesday all drawing this weekend, which will work out ok for us.

I think there will be a winner at Leeds because Leeds will chuck the kitchen sink at it.  It will either work or Norwich have the talent to do them on the counter.

 

Fulham and Brentford are the two teams that have the most goals in their games.  There will be goals and therefore I reckon a positive result is more likely.

 

We could easily draw v Ipswich which I am happy with.  We mustn't lose leaving a win against Fulham required.

 

Either way I am having a massive bet on Leeds winning.  I need the compensation if they win.

Edited by HirstWhoScoredIt
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6 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I think what makes me think they will probably get 6 points is knowing that if Wigan are down and Leeds need a win they will surely get the three points at Wigan.  I'd be absolutely gobsmacked if they didn't.

 

And then Norwich are just rubbish away (lost 12 conceding 44 goals).....

 

This. They will definitely win at Wigan (I know we like to ridicule their attendance boasting but they will probably outnumber Wigan fans which will help). Norwich are a capable team, just depends whether they are motivated or on the beach.

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9 minutes ago, Ever the pessimist said:

 

This. They will definitely win at Wigan (I know we like to ridicule their attendance boasting but they will probably outnumber Wigan fans which will help). Norwich are a capable team, just depends whether they are motivated or on the beach.

I'm looking at the 3-1 win at Preston though on Easter Monday. They have got a squad full of a talent as the 7-1 drubbing of Reading showed. 

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7 minutes ago, HirstWhoScoredIt said:

I think there will be a winner at Leeds because Leeds will chuck the kitchen sink at it.  It will either work or Norwich have the talent to do them on the counter.

 

Fulham and Brentford are the two teams that have the most goals in their games.  There will be goals and therefore I reckon a positive result is more likely.

 

We could easily draw v Ipswich which I am happy with.  We mustn't lose leaving a win against Fulham required.

 

Either way I am having a massive bet on Leeds winning.  I need the compensation if they win.

 

You need to factor in that Leeds won't want to go behind early doors as that will leave them a mountain to climb - expecting a cagey and nervy first half from them. Assuming Leeds are drawing, I think at that point they'll make a decision based on the half time scores at the other games impacting on their chances. I should imagine it is difficult to get what is going on at other games across to the players and with the number of permutations still in play, deciding anything during the game based on other scorelines will be very tough.

 

I think Fulham's situation is a pretty straight-forward one - they just need to match Leeds' result because of their goal difference.

 

Agreed about us - we want to make sure that even if it goes to the final game a point will be sufficient. Glad we are playing Ipswich away in truth as at Hillsborough they'd just park the bus, but their final home game of the season they'll be a bit more open and that would suit us.

 

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6 hours ago, mrgund said:

How do the playoff dates work again?

 

3rd v 6th who will play at home first?

 

4th v 5th as above

 

Which game is played on the Sat/Tue Sun/Wed ?

 

 

 

I researched this over the last 5/6 years (too lazy to go further) but 3rd v 6th always play first, 4th and 5th second

So 3rd v 6th would be Saturday 5:30pm and 7:45 Tuesday, 4th v 5th would be 12pm Sunday and 7:45 Wednesday.

 

So would rather have 3rd or 6th

 

 

 

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