Joao

[Philb125]

1 hour ago, Holmowl said:

 

I hope you are right, but I do not share your confidence. 

 

This year's 27 in 23 is not a blip. In the last 15 league matches last season we scored 17 (and 9 of them came in 3 matches).

 

That's 44 goals in our last 38 league games. 

There is no way a team with our forwards can continue to only score at that Stuart Gray style ratio.... the fact we are creating chances makes me confident of that, most of the season so far has for one season or another been a dry spell for our main finishers. 

 

Luckily it hasn't dented the points accrued too much but imagine if we had FF in form in early games when he was making Joao like misses (I think Leeds game springs to mind) and also hooper not scoring as he can - hoping he goes through a hot spell when he returns. 

 

 

[owlandished]

4 hours ago, Holmowl said:

 

I think it is a fair description. I think it our obvious weakness. I am interested to hear your view, as someone who clearly has a keen interest of stats.

 

We are on target to score 54 goals. Compare this to the past 3 seasons of promoted teams

 

Bournemouth 98

Watford 91

Norwich 88

Leicester 83

Burnley 72

Burnley 72 

Hull 69

Boro 63

QPR 60

 

Lowest total to get into Play Offs was Brighton in 13/14 with 55.

 

So yes, I would say that for a club wanting an automatic slot we are VERY goal-shy, and even for a team content to finish 6th, goals for is the obvious area we could come up short.

 

PS _ Burnley twice is not a typo. They scored 72 in both promotion seasons.

 

A difficult exercise to draw conclusions at this stage based on goals to date, but for fun, here are some thoughts:

 

Compare Gray's and Carlos' league stats for when they both completed a season as manager (respectively 2014-2015 when we finished 13th in the Championship and 2015-16 when we finished 6th). Under Gray: 43 goals 49 conceded 49. For Carlos: 66 v 45. Marked improvement in terms of scoring and final league position; not so much difference in number conceded

 

Goals in Carlos' first season also had more of a premium. In 2014-15 over 1,400 were scored, whilst this amount dropped to around 1,300 in 2015-16, and the 2nd placed automatically promoted team managed just 63 goals. This season, the Championship looks to be on a par with 2014-15. So there's an argument we need to be scoring more goals than we currently are if we want to reach play offs/automatics 

 

However doing so will not necessary mean finishing higher. Derby County in 2014-15 bagged well more than all above them (except for the top 3) yet finished 8th, one point off a play off spot. Brentford were the Championship's 2015-16 joint top scorers, yet ended up 9th

 

Under Gray we had 13 different players hitting the net (Nuhiu top with 10). Under Carlos in 2015-16, 16 individuals on the score sheet - and two into double figures (Forestieri 15, Hooper 13). What's happening this season is fewer Wednesday players are scoring and the goal tallies are less evenly distributed. Looven's on Boxing Day was only the 8th player to get a league goal. Zero goals are coming from our right backs (for the past two seasons) and they've had ample chances, and arguably our centre backs in 2016-17 have not contributed enough to date either (Loovens got one as mentioned and Hutchinson scored when playing CB, but Lees has yet to). Aside from Lee, the return from midfield in terms of goals scored is low too (zero from Reach and Wallace, just the one from Bannan) plus we have yet to convert from direct free kicks (except penalties where we have a 100% record)

 

One of the criticisms of this season is we try on occasion to almost walk the ball into the net (numerous examples), pass when we should have shot (most recently Buckley) or shot when should have passed (Palmer v Newcastle). Plus some sitters have gone nowhere (thinking Fletcher and Joao as main culprits, but Forestieri is also culpable). Being accused of walking the ball into the net has a lot to do with Carlos' supposed insistence for intricate passing behind the lines, but its a more attractive style and no part of the "brand" he wants to build. Our front men are either going to need to score more (here we should be definitely be looking at Joao, at least when he starts a game, as Forestieri, Fletcher and Hooper have a good return so far) or the rest of team will have to weigh in more

 

As this season is more like 2 seasons ago in relation to number of goals being scored, it's fair to think we need to score around the same as the lowest amount from the team that made the automatics that year (68). Last year we managed 66 (along with Derby) and we both made the play offs. As you say, we are on course to score 54 which would not seem sufficient

 

But then again that's slightly more than Huddersfield, Derby and Villa - so if we don't make it to the top 6, who will?

 

  

[Past Member]

There's a lot of waffle to read there. I'm sure the main statistic Chansiri will be interested in is which players are likely to get us promoted.

 

This stats shows that when Joao starts, our chance of promotion increases, whilst when Hooper starts our chance of promotion decreases.

 

 

[owlandished]

Yes It really is that simple

 

you are obviously a genius

[Past Member]

8 minutes ago, owlandished said:

Yes It really is that simple

 

you are obviously a genius

 

Yes nice & simple, unlike your stats where you've wrote a 1000 word essay to tell us 'we need to score more'

 

[owlandished]

Ooh you are so cruel

[Guest]

2 hours ago, zzmdu said:

There's a lot of waffle to read there. I'm sure the main statistic Chansiri will be interested in is which players are likely to get us promoted.

 

This stats shows that when Joao starts, our chance of promotion increases, whilst when Hooper starts our chance of promotion decreases.

 

 

Since when did Chansiri start the team selection? 

[RichSheffWeds]

2 hours ago, zzmdu said:

There's a lot of waffle to read there. I'm sure the main statistic Chansiri will be interested in is which players are likely to get us promoted.

 

This stats shows that when Joao starts, our chance of promotion increases, whilst when Hooper starts our chance of promotion decreases.

 

 

Your sample is so small it's statistically meaningless.

 

 

[Holmowl]

5 hours ago, owlandished said:

 

A difficult exercise to draw conclusions at this stage based on goals to date, but for fun, here are some thoughts:

 

Compare Gray's and Carlos' league stats for when they both completed a season as manager (respectively 2014-2015 when we finished 13th in the Championship and 2015-16 when we finished 6th). Under Gray: 43 goals 49 conceded 49. For Carlos: 66 v 45. Marked improvement in terms of scoring and final league position; not so much difference in number conceded

 

Goals in Carlos' first season also had more of a premium. In 2014-15 over 1,400 were scored, whilst this amount dropped to around 1,300 in 2015-16, and the 2nd placed automatically promoted team managed just 63 goals. This season, the Championship looks to be on a par with 2014-15. So there's an argument we need to be scoring more goals than we currently are if we want to reach play offs/automatics 

 

However doing so will not necessary mean finishing higher. Derby County in 2014-15 bagged well more than all above them (except for the top 3) yet finished 8th, one point off a play off spot. Brentford were the Championship's 2015-16 joint top scorers, yet ended up 9th

 

Under Gray we had 13 different players hitting the net (Nuhiu top with 10). Under Carlos in 2015-16, 16 individuals on the score sheet - and two into double figures (Forestieri 15, Hooper 13). What's happening this season is fewer Wednesday players are scoring and the goal tallies are less evenly distributed. Looven's on Boxing Day was only the 8th player to get a league goal. Zero goals are coming from our right backs (for the past two seasons) and they've had ample chances, and arguably our centre backs in 2016-17 have not contributed enough to date either (Loovens got one as mentioned and Hutchinson scored when playing CB, but Lees has yet to). Aside from Lee, the return from midfield in terms of goals scored is low too (zero from Reach and Wallace, just the one from Bannan) plus we have yet to convert from direct free kicks (except penalties where we have a 100% record)

 

One of the criticisms of this season is we try on occasion to almost walk the ball into the net (numerous examples), pass when we should have shot (most recently Buckley) or shot when should have passed (Palmer v Newcastle). Plus some sitters have gone nowhere (thinking Fletcher and Joao as main culprits, but Forestieri is also culpable). Being accused of walking the ball into the net has a lot to do with Carlos' supposed insistence for intricate passing behind the lines, but its a more attractive style and no part of the "brand" he wants to build. Our front men are either going to need to score more (here we should be definitely be looking at Joao, at least when he starts a game, as Forestieri, Fletcher and Hooper have a good return so far) or the rest of team will have to weigh in more

 

As this season is more like 2 seasons ago in relation to number of goals being scored, it's fair to think we need to score around the same as the lowest amount from the team that made the automatics that year (68). Last year we managed 66 (along with Derby) and we both made the play offs. As you say, we are on course to score 54 which would not seem sufficient

 

But then again that's slightly more than Huddersfield, Derby and Villa - so if we don't make it to the top 6, who will?

 

  

 

If ever we start an Owlstalk QI or Just a Minute I want to be in your team.

 

Really good thoughts in there. Thanks. Not sure I can do it justice, but here goes...

 

Our defence is super tight right now. Not much gets past Hutch, even less past Lees and Loovens, and after that Westwood us at the top of his game again. That has allowed us to take 3 points whist scoring very few goals. However, such a tight defence can't last forever and we definitely need to start scoring substantially more than we have done for the past 38 games. 44 goals is dreadful return and a continuation of that is highly unlikely to see us promoted.

 

We cannot be sure how Carlos will set up when Hooper is back and McManaman is available, but my opinion is that 2 issues will be instrumental in how many we score and how many games we win.

 

1. Two wingers - I know a lot has been said about fluid formations,  but I think with 3 CMs we end up funnelling attacks gown one side only and constantly recycle without threat. I hope Newcastle was the start of two wingers,  not a one off.

 

2. My old one I'm afraid. I firmly believe that only when we get Hooper, Fletch and FF together will we start to score seriously, just as last season when Hooper, Joao/Nuhiu and FF played.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

2 hours ago, zzmdu said:

There's a lot of waffle to read there. I'm sure the main statistic Chansiri will be interested in is which players are likely to get us promoted.

 

This stats shows that when Joao starts, our chance of promotion increases, whilst when Hooper starts our chance of promotion decreases.

 

 

 

 

This is completely asinine.

 

If we apply this logic to the whole squad, then playing João is more likely to get us promoted than playing Forestieri or Lee.

 

Oh, and Liam Palmer is just as vital to our chances of promotion as João!

[Holmowl]

25 minutes ago, RichSheffWeds said:

Your sample is so small it's statistically meaningless.

 

 

Euphemism?

[areNOTwhatTHEYseem]

6 minutes ago, Holmowl said:

Euphemism?

 

Yes, a euphemism for: 'Your sample is so small it's f*cking b*llocks'.

 

[Guest Copthorneowl]

22 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

 

This is completely asinine.

 

If we apply this logic to the whole squad, then playing João is more likely to get us promoted than playing Forestieri or Lee.

 

Oh, and Liam Palmer is just as vital to our chances of promotion as João!

I made the same point but unfortunately I suffer from tunnel vision.

[owlandished]

3 hours ago, zzmdu said:

There's a lot of waffle to read there. I'm sure the main statistic Chansiri will be interested in is which players are likely to get us promoted.

 

This stats shows that when Joao starts, our chance of promotion increases, whilst when Hooper starts our chance of promotion decreases.

 

 

 

49 minutes ago, areNOTwhatTHEYseem said:

 

 

This is completely asinine.

 

If we apply this logic to the whole squad, then playing João is more likely to get us promoted than playing Forestieri or Lee.

 

Oh, and Liam Palmer is just as vital to our chances of promotion as João!

 

It's such a lazy, lazy approach, indicative of the poster's logic in general from what I can tell

 

Joao wasn't even on the pitch when one of those 14 points was secured by a last minute Hutchinson header, but nope, it still counts because he started the game

 

It's so risable. It's kind of like saying we must start with Joao because he is our lucky charm, Mr Chairman

 

Imagine if someone turned up to a business meeting with that kind of logic behind a proposal, let alone pitching it to Chansiri (or whoever the poster thinks picks the team!) 

 

Obligatory required

 

 

[owlandished]

1 hour ago, Holmowl said:

 

If ever we start an Owlstalk QI or Just a Minute I want to be in your team.

 

Really good thoughts in there. Thanks. Not sure I can do it justice, but here goes...

 

Our defence is super tight right now. Not much gets past Hutch, even less past Lees and Loovens, and after that Westwood us at the top of his game again. That has allowed us to take 3 points whist scoring very few goals. However, such a tight defence can't last forever and we definitely need to start scoring substantially more than we have done for the past 38 games. 44 goals is dreadful return and a continuation of that is highly unlikely to see us promoted.

 

We cannot be sure how Carlos will set up when Hooper is back and McManaman is available, but my opinion is that 2 issues will be instrumental in how many we score and how many games we win.

 

1. Two wingers - I know a lot has been said about fluid formations,  but I think with 3 CMs we end up funnelling attacks gown one side only and constantly recycle without threat. I hope Newcastle was the start of two wingers,  not a one off.

 

2. My old one I'm afraid. I firmly believe that only when we get Hooper, Fletch and FF together will we start to score seriously, just as last season when Hooper, Joao/Nuhiu and FF played.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We certainly have not been free scoring. Our greatest margin of victory so far has only been by two goals and we've managed this twice

 

We had won by this margin (or more) five times at the same stage last season

 

But as said, it's too early to call and difficult to speculate on Carlos' tactics, given likely additions in January

 

In many ways we are in a better position than last year (most importantly with our points and position in the table), and in other ways we're not (e.g. goals scored, margins of victory etc.)

 

 

[Past Member]

1 hour ago, RichSheffWeds said:

Your sample is so small it's statistically meaningless.

 

 

 

It's a not sample. Surely you know what a sample means, with regards to stats.

[Philb125]

4 hours ago, zzmdu said:

There's a lot of waffle to read there. I'm sure the main statistic Chansiri will be interested in is which players are likely to get us promoted.

 

This stats shows that when Joao starts, our chance of promotion increases, whilst when Hooper starts our chance of promotion decreases.

 

 

I genuinely don't know if this is a serious argument or s satirical dig at last seasons posters stating we win more when Dave starts.... just can't work it out. 

[Past Member]

Just now, Philb125 said:

I genuinely don't know if this is a serious argument or s satirical dig at last seasons posters stating we win more when Dave starts.... just can't work it out. 

 

It's the latter, I'm having good fun with it.

Quoted endlessly last year, now it apparently meaningless, when applied to another player.

[Philb125]

3 minutes ago, zzmdu said:

 

It's the latter, I'm having good fun with it.

Quoted endlessly last year, now it apparently meaningless, when applied to another player.

I read it and didn't bite as was fairly certain you'd also disputed the use of lucky charms last season... but seeing all the replies thought I'd ask the question. 

 

That said, in all seriousness. Joao will only get better and as a forth choice solution is a good one for me. 

[Past Member]

1 minute ago, Philb125 said:

I read it and didn't bite as was fairly certain you'd also disputed the use of lucky charms last season... but seeing all the replies thought I'd ask the question. 

 

That said, in all seriousness. Joao will only get better and as a forth choice solution is a good one for me. 

 

I do think it's a good stat to use, & is more robust  with more data (games).

 

But a stat is equally good or bad for all players. And yes Joao is good to have as 3rd choice striker.