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cardiff make it 2-1 in 95 min


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Wrong. If we had lost today they would now be 3 points behind us. They win next week were level

Final day we lose they draw they finish above us

Our point today means a point final day is no good for Cardiff.

if we'd lost today & drawn v Cardiff the best they could hope for was finishing on level points with us...... resulting us finishing above them on goal difference....

You'll get it soon enough.

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Yep my mistake 1/10...mugs though are tempted at 6/1 Cardiff

odds were 1/66 & 10/1 before todays game...

Beat us next week & the 10/1 / 6/1 will look very generous.

Let's hope were up for it!!!!

But Cardiff didn't draw. Anyone who can't see our point today was valuable as it turned out are very dense

Where did I say cardiff drew?

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odds were 1/66 & 10/1 before todays game...

Beat us next week & the 10/1 / 6/1 will look very generous.

Let's hope were up for it!!!!

Where did I say cardiff drew?

If we do lose next week, then the point gained a at Derby could be very important.

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If we do lose next week, then the point gained a at Derby could be very important.

Why?

Before today's game we were 6 clear (7!!!! With goal difference)....

They win today & final day =6 points......

They draw with us = 1 point .....EACH.....

The worst case outcome with these results (if we had lost today!!!!) Was finishing level on points......

=us in 6th on goal difference.

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Why?

Before today's game we were 6 clear (7!!!! With goal difference)....

They win today & final day =6 points......

They draw with us = 1 point .....EACH.....

The worst case outcome with these results (if we had lost today!!!!) Was finishing level on points......

=us in 6th on goal difference.

What if they beat us though?

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That's the whole 'debate'.they need to win their last 3 games regardless of what we do in our other 2 games (today & wolves)

Why are you finding this so difficult? If we had lost today the gap would be 3 points. If Cardiff beat us and drew the last game that's 4 points. So not 2 wins at all, our point today and goal difference means they have to win both.

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If we were 3 points and cardiff win (v us).

Then its equal.

A cardiff point v brum & we lose, then cardiff in.

Thats when todays point is the decider.

The point I was making was if we avoid defeat v cardiff our other results become irrelevant. This is the crucial match. Cardiff have to win & no permatation including the other games would make a difference.

If we'd lost today & draw against Cardiff they couldn't catch us.

Obviously if they won all 3 they'd be above us (if we didn't win at wolves) & if we'd matched their result today it would have been over.

Edited by richowl
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Scenario 1:

Derby 1-1 SWFC

Cardiff 2-1 Bolton

6th SWFC - 71pts - +19GD

7th Cardiff - 67pts - +8GD

SWFC 0-3 Cardiff

6th SWFC - 71pts - +16GD

7th Cardiff - 70pts - +11GD

Scenario 2:

Derby 2-1 SWFC

Cardiff 2-1 Bolton

6th SWFC - 70pts - +18GD

7th Cardiff - 67pts - +8GD

SWFC 0-3 Cardiff

6th SWFC - 70pts - +15GD

7th Cardiff - 70pts - +11GD

Scenario 1 - with us drawing today and losing 3-0 to Cardiff - means that even if we lose against wolves a draw is not good enough for Cardiff final day, unless we lose by 6 goals.

Scenario 2 - with us losing today and then losing 3-0 to Cardiff - would mean that if we lost to Wolves Cardiff could draw on the final day and go up.

Of course, we're going to batter Cardiff anyway, so it's all irrelevant. But in short, yes a point today could prove to be a valuable one.

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