sturutter Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 (edited) This is not an opinion about our form going into the playoffs, or a positive mentality, or the like. This is simply about the numbers and logic of the situation. If we avoid defeat to Cardiff, we are guaranteed the playoffs, because of the goal difference situation. The chance of us finishing level on points with Cardiff and behind on goal difference is so tiny, that it is basically zero. It is really important that we are not jobsworths about the goal difference, saying for example "what if they beat us 4-0?," because that could our judgement. And our judgement of the situation is crucial, because there is a very strong conclusion- that we should play to win at Derby. Looking at it logically, take the two cases one by one. 1) We lose to Cardiff If we're thinking about our best strategy to make the playoffs, we might as well assume we lose to Cardiff. Because if we don't, we are 100% there anyway. Cardiff's other two games are Bolton at home this weekend, and Birmingham at home on the last day. The other crucial part of logic is that the Birmingham game is only relevant to us if Cardiff are on the high of having beaten both Bolton and us. From our point of view, I think we are best to assume that Cardiff win these two games. Not out of sheer pessimism, but because it's likely they will beat Bolton, and probably just as likely that they will beat Birmingham IF they have beaten us. And that's the only case we should look at, as if they haven't beat us, it's not relevant at all anyway. If Cardiff were to win those two games, we need three points in total from Derby and Wolves. If they were to win those two games, one point at Derby is literally no better than 0 points at Derby. Both would leave us having to beat Wolves on the last day. Of course 1 point at Derby isn't exactly the same as 0 points, as Cardiff may draw against Bolton or Birmingham. However, I would argue that the difference between 3 and 1 points at Derby is FAR greater than the difference between 1 and 0 points. The only way 1 point is better than 0 is if specifically we lose at Wolves, and Cardiff draw one of their games. That is unlikely enough, that I think we should assume Cardiff win both games, and act from there. And acting from there tells us we need a total of three points from the Derby and Wolves games. 2) We avoid defeat to Cardiff This case is far less important, as happily we are there anyway, and we are just jostling for position within the playoffs. But if we assume now that we do avoid defeat to Cardiff, I think the conclusion is even stronger. Because they play at Brighton, and Hull have a game in hand and a better goal difference. by far the more likely of the two teams directly above us for us to catch is Derby. We are 6 points behind and five behind on goal difference, and so realistically the ONLY way we can gain a position in the playoffs is if we beat Derby. If we draw this weekend, we are surely 6th at best. With the contrasting form of Brighton and Hull, leapfrogging Derby could count for quite a lot too. In both cases ( #1 being a lot more important than #2) I would argue that the conclusion that we should play to win is pretty strong . It's counter-intuitive, as normally a point away at Derby would be seen as a good point and something to protect towards the end of the game. However, I really hope Carlos thinks along these lines, and sees that the right thing to do is to gamble to win. Edited April 20, 2016 by sturutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robster_owl Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Hard to know which to pick of your permutation, as my heads mashed after watching that last segment this evening and literally just getting home at 4.45am for 2 hrs of lip before up again. We have never been known for doing things for ourselves the easy way but we should be planning as always to win all 3 games regardless but time will tell... We all hope and pray huh. Uto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nswowl Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Would hate to see the unedited version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mrbluesky Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 You could have just said "to make the playoffs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One of the Sing Boys Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 This is not an opinion about our form going into the playoffs, or a positive mentality, or the like. This is simply about the numbers and logic of the situation. If we avoid defeat to Cardiff, we are guaranteed the playoffs, because of the goal difference situation. The chance of us finishing level on points with Cardiff and behind on goal difference is so tiny, that it is basically zero. It is really important that we are not jobsworths about the goal difference, saying for example "what if they beat us 4-0?," because that could our judgement. And our judgement of the situation is crucial, because there is a very strong conclusion- that we should play to win at Derby. Looking at it logically, take the two cases one by one. 1) We lose to Cardiff If we're thinking about our best strategy to make the playoffs, we might as well assume we lose to Cardiff. Because if we don't, we are 100% there anyway. Cardiff's other two games are Bolton at home this weekend, and Birmingham at home on the last day. The other crucial part of logic is that the Birmingham game is only relevant to us if Cardiff are on the high of having beaten both Bolton and us. From our point of view, I think we are best to assume that Cardiff win these two games. Not out of sheer pessimism, but because it's likely they will beat Bolton, and probably just as likely that they will beat Birmingham IF they have beaten us. And that's the only case we should look at, as if they haven't beat us, it's not relevant at all anyway. If Cardiff were to win those two games, we need three points in total from Derby and Wolves. If they were to win those two games, one point at Derby is literally no better than 0 points at Derby. Both would leave us having to beat Wolves on the last day. Of course 1 point at Derby isn't exactly the same as 0 points, as Cardiff may draw against Bolton or Birmingham. However, I would argue that the difference between 3 and 1 points at Derby is FAR greater than the difference between 1 and 0 points. The only way 1 point is better than 0 is if specifically we lose at Wolves, and Cardiff draw one of their games. That is unlikely enough, that I think we should assume Cardiff win both games, and act from there. And acting from there tells us we need a total of three points from the Derby and Wolves games. 2) We avoid defeat to Cardiff This case is far less important, as happily we are there anyway, and we are just jostling for position within the playoffs. But if we assume now that we do avoid defeat to Cardiff, I think the conclusion is even stronger. Because they play at Brighton, and Hull have a game in hand and a better goal difference. by far the more likely of the two teams directly above us for us to catch is Derby. We are 6 points behind and five behind on goal difference, and so realistically the ONLY way we can gain a position in the playoffs is if we beat Derby. If we draw this weekend, we are surely 6th at best. With the contrasting form of Brighton and Hull, leapfrogging Derby could count for quite a lot too. In both cases ( #1 being a lot more important than #2) I would argue that the conclusion that we should play to win is pretty strong . It's counter-intuitive, as normally a point away at Derby would be seen as a good point and something to protect towards the end of the game. However, I really hope Carlos thinks along these lines, and sees that the right thing to do is to gamble to win. Playing to win mmmmmm? You may be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgmetcalf Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 We should attempt every game. However, as we are playing at the moment, I can only see us getting another point at most, probably against Cardiff. Bare in mind sometimes a team will sneak into the playoffs on the last match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One of the Sing Boys Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 We should attempt every game. However, as we are playing at the moment, I can only see us getting another point at most, probably against Cardiff. Bare in mind sometimes a team will sneak into the playoffs on the last match I think it will be Huddersfield this season, they'll blind side us and Cardiff on the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Top post OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bradowl Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Derby are guaranteed a play off spot and automatic chances are practically zero so I doubt that the derby players will be risking injury and will probably be happy to play out a boring 0-0 draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geedee Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Derby are guaranteed a play off spot and automatic chances are practically zero so I doubt that the derby players will be risking injury and will probably be happy to play out a boring 0-0 draw. As above if I was Derby's manager I would be ' squad rotating ' for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Spiksley Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Three more points needed. Don't care how they come at this stage of the season. Three boring draws would do me TBH. More important to ensure our strongest players our fit and available for selection in play off matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daavies; Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I see your logic but I can't imagine any professional sportsman goes into any competitive match without the desire to win the match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doubleo Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 The sooner we are secure in the playoffs the sooner Carlos can rest players and give others a game. Lets get it sorted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oh_weds_we_love_you Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Three more points needed. Don't care how they come at this stage of the season. Three boring draws would do me TBH. More important to ensure our strongest players our fit and available for selection in play off matches. We only need one draw if it comes against Cardiff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthefish2002 Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I dont get people saying Wednesday never do it easy. We are 6 points plus a better goal difference over 7th place team, we are more then comfortably in the play offs. Miust be 50-1 for Cardiff to get last play off place now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshfish Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I dont get people saying Wednesday never do it easy. We are 6 points plus a better goal difference over 7th place team, we are more then comfortably in the play offs. Miust be 50-1 for Cardiff to get last play off place now. ...and the secret weapon is...if I bet on Cardiff to get to the play-offs...they are well and truly fooooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluesteel Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I expect us to set up as we did away at Hull. We may actually play better when the other team is expected to win. All these permuations, it makes a change from the relegation permutations. I dont get people saying Wednesday never do it easy. We are 6 points plus a better goal difference over 7th place team, we are more then comfortably in the play offs. Miust be 50-1 for Cardiff to get last play off place now. I think its fair to say that we are only 6 points clear now because Cardiff have failed in recent games despite us giving them the perfect opportunity to catch up. We have managed to maintain the gap but we really shouldve sown this up over the last two games. I think we'll make it in the end but the whole of the top six could easily have been mathematically clear with 3 games left, which is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I think our philosophy is always try to win anyway. It will not be in anyone's mind that a draw at Derby is what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Spiksley Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 We only need one draw if it comes against Cardiff! Can't argue with fact I'd take that too. All about the maximum energies we are required to achieve for playing off to the opposites also for playing off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F. Spiksley Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 I think our philosophy is always try to win anyway. It will not be in anyone's mind that a draw at Derby is what we want Indeed, always. But after the last two decades I'd take 45 missed Nuhiu headers if it meant points on the board!!! Think we are there though so we should cut loose and go for some goals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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