Gervais Martel

[EcclesallOwl]

He said earlier this year?

Oh right

Thought it was just another post trying to stir

I'd like to see a legit, credible story that's come out SINCE Milan decided to make the sale. Anything before then will have been picked up by Milan and his team.

[kobayashi]

You got a link to where the Baghlan group defaulted on $18M of LOAN PAYMENTS please.

google

 

ISIN:  XS0780263165

 

look for the csx debt security listing site and 2014 announcements.

[db_leeds_owl]

http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/en/eu/?rpqSearch=NO&pageNav=No&searchField=Entity&searchText=Baghlan+group&find.x=8&find.y=10

S&P don't seem to offer a rating for Baghlan Group at all. I'm probably not searching correctly

[The Batman]

If only Milan had checked Google instead of fannying about with whatever inadequate checks he did!

[Earlsfieldowl]

Football league ffs football league

Sorry Cornelius - my mistake!

90% of what is on this thread is pure speculation - 'I read' or 'the gist' etc. All nonsense. Unless it's an official statement from the club, it's to be taken with a pinch of salt!

[M Royds]

trotter

No he's not. Been posting on here for years.

[KernowOwl]

Owlstalk has some great researchers, I don't know what you lot for a living but you're wasted on here.

If HM company was running dry, how come we are now soponsed by them. And if his business was on it's last legs, he would still have his personal wealth.

What did people do before the internet?

[shandypants]

No mate. Not wrong at all. There used to be a poster called Kayser Soze/Kaiser Soze/etc. And your post just put in mind of him. Wondering if he's the sort that changes their name.

 

 

Or have I been whooshed...in which case, I didn't mean anything I wrote above.

You've not been whooshed mate. It's me not thinking right.

[RichieB]

Football league ffs football league

Sorry Cornelius - my mistake!

90% of what is on this thread is pure speculation - 'I read' or 'the gist' etc. All nonsense. Unless it's an official statement from the club, it's to be taken with a pinch of salt!

90% is speculation, including your brilliant theory that because our takeover hasn't been ratified then it MUST be something to do with the Lens situation, because it can't be a 'coincidence' like you say

[capetownowl]

HM doesn't want to put the €10mil in upfront on top of the other tens of millions he has already put in. Martel is in charge of submitting a revised budget and has failed to do so. Even without the €10mil, Lens' budget is good enough for promotion to be allowed.

Is that a fair assessment of what's happened so far?

The football league require a business plan upfront showing how the club will survive, it doesn't require vast amounts of money to be sat in the clubs bank account.

I'm not really worried, to be honest, the Lens farce seems like an admin wee wee tail up and the impression I get of HM is that he is quite hands off - I'd be surprised if he is to blame for the incompetence there. He should probably starting looking for a new chairman, though.

I dont know the financial implications of Lens not being promoted are.

But I would suggest that it will be cheaper and easier to get a disgraced former idolised chairman out of a 2nd division club than a newly promoted club.

Lens can then push for promotion again with a stable management all singing the same tune.

[M Royds]

===================

A Z E R B A I J A N

===================

BAGHLAN GROUP: Fitch Assigns 'B-' Long-Term Issuer Default Rating

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Fitch Ratings has assigned Baghlan Group FZCO a Long-term foreign

currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'B-'. The Outlook is

Positive.

Baghlan is a privately owned, diversified Azerbaijani corporate

benefiting from the expected structural growth of the country

through its transport services, construction and oil & gas

activities. Although moderately leveraged for the rating category

recent investments into start-up oil and gas assets have

increased the debt quantum. The agency expects funds from

operations (FFO) gross leverage to remain below 2.5x into FY13.

Fitch expects on-going stability from its transport services

business to offset lumpy cash flow generation from its

construction segment. The oil and gas segment over FY13 & FY14 is

expected to be a modest drain on cash flows. However, the

potential for this unit to outperform and up-stream dividends to

the group - indicative of standalone strength - is a potential

positive rating event.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Diversified Operating Segments:

The operating risk profile benefits from its diversified nature,

although the concentration on large contracts is a weak point.

Transport and logistics services benefit from strong domestic

market share, recurrent cash flow and privileged contracts with

government bodies. Construction is primarily focused on one large

civil works contract with a few more contracts in the order book

coming on-stream over the next few years. Although this business

risk exhibits a higher risk with volatile working capital

movements and fragmented market share, profit margins and growth

prospects are strong. Oil and gas operations are in a run-up

phase and still required financial support from the group,

although expected to be cash flow positive from FY15 onwards.

Stable Transport Services Unit:

As the leading freight agent in Azerbaijan this operating segment

requires minimal debt funding and has a solid track record of

generating reasonable free cash flow (FCF) for the rest of the

group to grow. This stability stems from Baghlan's leading

position as the key freight agent for Azerbaijani Railways

selling on its behalf around 60% of all freight volume through

the Azerbaijani railway network. The unit has high barriers to

entry with Baghlan benefiting from an exclusive medium term

contract with Azerbaijani Railways.

Real Estate Divestments:

Strong FY13 expected FCF generation is dependent on the disposal

of this portfolio of primarily residential, multi-purpose units

in central Baku. The positive impact on FCF of around AZN60m from

these divestitures would aid de-leveraging, although not required

to maintain consolidated FFO gross leverage below 2.5x for FY13.

Baghlan is currently in negotiations with investors and banks to

sell these units in block sales.

Volatile Working Capital Movements:

Solid P&L profits posted in recent years have not fully converted

into cash flow. Negative working capital outflows during 2011 and

2012 have led Baghlan to fund a working capital requirement of

around AZN181m as at FY12 (inventory plus current receivables

less current payables). Although working capital is likely to

become positive in 2013 and 2014 it is closely linked to

divesting real estate assets, receiving payment from deferred

consideration following the sale of a JV interest (AISBG) and

successful execution of their construction contracts. Receivables

risk is largely contained with the majority of receivables linked

to Azerbaijani state authorities.

Reduced Bank Debt Dependency:

As typically for a private Azerbaijani issuer, access to long

term bank funding is constrained by the relatively under-

developed banking market. Positively, Baghlan used the

international debt markets issuing a secured USD150m note in 2012

to fund the increased stake in their existing oil and gas

business. Baghlan continues to refinance its bank debt largely

with the International Bank of Azerbaijan ('BB'/Stable) that has

in recent years shown solid support for the domestic non-oil

sector.

RATING SENSITIVITIES:

Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating

actions include:

- Improved operating risk profile with reduced concentration on

large single contracts.

- Positive working capital generation and successful divestment

of real estate assets.

- Extension of existing debt maturities and diversifying sources

of funding.

- Sustainable financial metrics with Fitch adjusted FFO gross

leverage below 3.0x and FFO gross interest cover above 4.0x.

- Oil and gas activities to be self-sufficient and generate

sustainable FCF to upstream dividends.

Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating

action include:

- Continued working capital outflows and increased requirement

to use local bank funding.

- Failure to renew key contracts or loss of licenses in the

Transport segment.

- Oil and gas activities to drain material cash flow from the

overall group and /or an underperformance on the oil and gas

segment.

BAGHLAN GROUP: S&P Assigns 'B' Corp. Rating; Outlook Stable

-----------------------------------------------------------

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its 'B' long-term

corporate credit rating to Azerbaijan-based diversified company

Baghlan Group FZCO. The outlook is stable.

The rating reflects S&P's assessment of Baghlan's business risk

as vulnerable and its financial risk as aggressive.

Baghlan generated Azerbaijan manat (AZN) 144 million (about

EUR137 million) in adjusted EBITDA in 2012. It operates in five

key segments: freight forwarding, public transportation,

construction project management, equipment trading, and oil and

gas.

The rating is constrained by Baghlan's position as a small player

that relies heavily on a limited number of large contracts.

These are mainly in road construction for the government-related

Azeryolservice and in freight forwarding, where the company

enjoys a hefty 50% discount from Azerbaijan Railways thanks to

accumulating large transportation volumes. Any changes to these

contracts could significantly affect Baghlan's profits or cash

flow, in S&P's view. Baghlan also faces large working capital

fluctuations (notably related to the road construction project),

which may pressure cash flows and liquidity, despite some

cushioning from its back-to-back structuring with suppliers.

Lastly, Baghlan is undertaking a new oil and gas project that

will require sizable capital expenditures and may be subject to

execution risks.

The company has a concentrated shareholder structure, and S&P

believes that it may be subject to key man risk, as the company's

business may be exposed to the position of its core shareholder,

Mr.Hafiz Mammadov, in Azerbaijan's business and political

context. In addition, S&P considers that Baghlan is subject to

the risks of doing business in Azerbaijan, where it operates its

key activities.

On the upside, Baghlan benefits from diversification by business

segment and favorable profitability levels under its existing

contracts. Azerbaijan's developing business environment

currently creates barriers to entry to Baghlan's key niche

markets, although this could change in the future. Baghlan's

debt of AZN233 million on Dec. 31, 2012, is quite manageable. In

S&P's base-case scenario, it assumes that the company will

maintain its generally prudent approach to leverage. Baghlan's

invests in its oil and gas project via a production sharing

agreement, which helps it to share capital expenditures with its

partners and enables it to recover investments relatively quickly

when production increases are achieved. The company's projects

in other segments require only small maintenance capital

expenditures.

The stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation that Baghlan will

maintain manageable liquidity over the next few years, and avoid

any further large working capital outlays or any deterioration in

the key terms of its largest contracts. S&P expects Baghlan to

maintain healthy headroom under the covenant that limits its

ratio of debt to EBITDA at 2.5x. S&P has not factored any major

debt-financed acquisitions into its base-case scenario.

S&P could consider lowering the rating on Baghlan if it observed

a squeeze on liquidity, a significant negative change in the

profitability of key contracts, or the company made large debt-

financed acquisitions. S&P has not factored these possibilities

into its base-case scenario, however.

In S&P's view, rating upside is limited in the short to medium

term because of the company's limited size and the inherent high

volatility in its business.

MUGANBANK: S&P Affirms 'B-/C' Counterparty Ratings; Outlook Pos.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it revised its outlook on

Azerbaijan's Muganbank to positive from stable. At the same

time, S&P affirmed its 'B-/C' long- and short-term counterparty

credit ratings on the bank.

The outlook revision reflects S&P's view that the recent capital

increase will strengthen Muganbank's balance sheet and provide

the bank with the capacity to increase its competitive position

in the domestic market. If well managed, this could improve the

bank's future core profitability, which was fairly weak in 2012.

Muganbank has recently benefited from an additional capital

increase of Azerbaijan manat (AZN) 10 million. S&P expects the

bank to gradually become one of Azerbaijan's top 10 banks in

terms of loans and assets, and even higher in the ranking in

terms of net profit.

S&P notes that the bank has successfully developed relationships

with international financial institutions and government funds,

attracting less expensive funding facilities and therefore

improving its franchise and, potentially, its profitability

ratios. S&P's affirmation of its 'C' short-term rating reflects

the inherent risks for a small bank with an undiversified

business model in a high risk country, and certain liquidity

risks.

"We base our ratings on Muganbank on a 'bb-' anchor for banks

operating predominantly in Azerbaijan, and our view of the bank's

"weak" business position, "adequate" capital and earnings,

"moderate" risk position, "average" funding, "adequate"

liquidity, and "low systemic importance" in Azerbaijan, as our

criteria define the terms," S&P noted.

"We view the bank's business position as weak because of its

small market share, persistent strategic uncertainties, and very

compact management team that is in danger of placing too much

importance on key individuals. However, we think there is

potential for the bank's business position to improve. The bank

is among Azerbaijan's top 15 financial institutions and had about

285 million AZN in assets on Dec. 31, 2012. It mostly lends to

small and medium businesses. We note that the bank's owners, who

are Azeri businessmen, are now looking to sell a stake to

external foreign investors, which adds some uncertainty regarding

the bank's future development. If any sale happens, we will

review the bank and may take a rating action based on the new

owner's strategic priorities," S&P added.

S&P raised its assessment of the bank's capital and earnings to

"adequate" following the AZN 10 million cash injection at the end

of 2012. S&P thinks that the bank's earnings are going to

recover after one-off provisioning needs incurred in 2012 that

influenced the bottom line results. The bank's trends in net

interest margin and fee and commission income are positive, in

S&P's view.

The positive outlook reflects S&P's expectation that the bank

will continue to grow in its current market niche, and that its

core banking profitability will improve gradually and give it an

enhanced buffer to cushion credit costs.

S&P might consider a positive rating action if it saw that the

bank's market share was increasing enough to push it into the top

10 in terms of loans and assets without harming its financial

profile, notably its asset quality indicators.

S&P might revise the outlook back to stable if asset quality

deteriorated sharply, with non-performing loans reaching double

digits, although this is not S&P's base-case expectation. S&P

could also consider a negative rating action if the funding

profile deteriorated significantly, leading to depressed

liquidity and loss of confidence among some large depositors.

Holy smoke, that's sensational.

[Guest Sotrab]

I don't think people are blaming Mammadov. But he owns that club and it's happened on his watch.

If a similar thing happened here then Milan would get lynched. Hence why people are looking at Mammadov and wondering what the hell is going on.

I'd say that's reasonable as oppose to a 'flounce'

What's this about his watch? He doesn't run the club, simply the majority shareholder so no it hasn't happened on his watch

[nethertonowl]

OK, things I dont understnad here, please can anyone help?

 

Whats the connection between, Bahglan and Land of fire?,would have thought that Land of Fire was the country/Government , therefore our sponsor money comes form them, via HM influence and not his own money?, if I am right , causes me more concern he may be bust.

 

Secondly, Why has he paid , over the odds for us?, we aint valued at £40 m, is this jsut a way to get money out of Azer?,

 

The arrest cliams, what if he wasnt arrested, but refused the right to leave the country, ?,

 

Also if money shortage wasnt a worry , MM would have got the underwater mobile out and said chill , I have been paid, he aint skint?

 

must admit, More concerned with every day.Think MM may have meet his match,  ,  

[bigrbuk]

We're sponsored by the country/government - it's said HM has friends in the government

[McRightSide]

Doesn't the fact Donny got booted out by the FL and we didn't tell you something?

[Standidno]

In all seriousness, do you not think mandaric would have done these type of checks, seriously?

[silentpete]

http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/en/eu/?rpqSearch=NO&pageNav=No&searchField=Entity&searchText=Baghlan+group&find.x=8&find.y=10

S&P don't seem to offer a rating for Baghlan Group at all. I'm probably not searching correctly

 

lack of a rating in the case of baghlan group is more to do with a lack of information from the company and azeri banks than any negative finances

 

an azeri oil and gas company which also has an effective monopoly on the countries [or at least the capitals] transport systems with such close ties to government isn't going anywhere or running out of money any time soon

[Paul..]

lack of a rating in the case of baghlan group is more to do with a lack of information from the company and azeri banks than any negative finances

 

 

Yes that was made clear in the articles I read, technically they supposedly defaulted on some loans however the primary issue with recommending (or not) trading in their shares is down to the lack of available information.

[Nookiebear]

He never as been yet

Right about wot ?

I've always been right, you've always been wrong. Go figure.

[TbagMcgraw]

mama.png

(to the tune of Popeye the sailor man)

Hafiz the pizza man, he comes from Azerbaijan.

Thin base or stuffed crust, he collects football clubs. Hafiz the pizza man!