Jürgen Weißbrot Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 What's your gut feeling on whether we'll be safe in a week's time? My vote is YES, safe as houses, no danger! Probably Here are the various connotations of how next Saturday's fixtures might play out... Relevant fixtures: Dingles V Hull Wolves V Burnleh Blackburn V Palarse Brizzle V Udders Safe Before Kick-Off Wolves lose and Barnsley fail to win (technically Barnsley could catch us after drawing, but the goal difference makes that unlikely) OR Wolves lose and Huddersfield fail to win (this is because Wolves would remain 4 points behind us, and although Huddersfield could catch us, that in itself would mean that Barnsley couldn't because they play Huddersfield on the last day) So basically, if Wolves lose, both Huddersfield AND Barnsley would have to win. Need a point to guarantee safety We'd only need one team to stay out of touch because Peterborough wouldn't be able to catch us if we can draw with them and retain the 4 point cushion. 1) Huddersfield fail to win, Wolves and Barnsley win, and Blackburn don't lose by 2+ goals on both Tuesday and Saturday. 2) Wolves fail to win, Huddersfield and Barnsley win, and Blackburn don't lose by 2+ goals on both Tuesday and Saturday. 3) Barnsley fail to win, Huddersfield and Wolves win, and Blackburn don't lose by 2+ goals on both Tuesday and Saturday. 4) Blackburn lose by 2+ goals on both Tuesday and Saturday, but Huddersfield, Barnsley and Wolves win. n.b. the last one wouldn't actually see us totally safe with a draw, but Blackburn would be 3 points behind us and on worse goal difference. So we could lose our last game by one, Blackburn win theirs by one, and we'd still stay up. I only kept it in because it might come into play if they get sevrely hammered by both Millwall and Palarse. Need to win to guarantee safety Barnsley, Huddersfield and Wolves win, Blackburn don't lose. n.b. Even if this is the case, and we draw rather than win, we could still be in a strong position going into the last day. We'd be going into the final day in front of Burnley (having lost against Wolves), Barnsley, Wolves, Peterborough, and possibly Blackburn and Blackpool too. I might be wrong on a few bits here though. So I'd be grateful if someone would be kind enough to check my working out. And, are there any other scenarios that should be considered? UTO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash_SWFC Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Which is why you should if you haven't already (and can) purchase your Posh ticket, only about 400-500 remaining! SATURDAAAAAY IS PARTAAAAY DAAAAAY I can feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GreenGoose Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 I might be wrong on a few bits here though. So I'd be grateful if someone would be kind enough to check my working out. You can't expect me to do homework on Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mkowl Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Its my birthday and the 39th anniversary of my first ever match, not sure this has any bearing on the relegation picture but we won the one in 1974 to avoid relegation so i count that as a good omen (or clutching at straws) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFC_Liam Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 How many tickets were we allocated in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jürgen Weißbrot Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 Its my birthday and the 39th anniversary of my first ever match, not sure this has any bearing on the relegation picture but we won the one in 1974 to avoid relegation so i count that as a good omen (or clutching at straws) it'll do for me if anyone else has any omens/clutching-straws, please feel free to share and make everyone feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash_SWFC Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 How many tickets were we allocated in the first place? 5,000 It WILL be class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anglers owl Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Will be in Magaluf on Sams stag do, watching it in a bar, any one else on here going, could be a reall good night if results go, if not good excuse to get sh*tfaced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHOwl Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 You made it a bit convoluted but basically you are right. We cannot be 100% safe before kick off unless both Barnsley and Wolves lose. Period. If Wolves lose we are safe all but mathematically as long as either Huddersfield lose or Barnsley draw. If we get a point then we are guaranteed safe as long as one from Wolves, Barnsley or Huddersfield fail to win. Win and we're safe without relying on other results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest WEBOWL Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Just win please Too much maths for Sunday night Good luck to all going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshTheOwl Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 flipping gutted I'm working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Let's not start sucking each other's dicks just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jürgen Weißbrot Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 You made it a bit convoluted but basically you are right. We cannot be 100% safe before kick off unless both Barnsley and Wolves lose. Period. If Wolves lose we are safe all but mathematically as long as either Huddersfield lose or Barnsley draw. If we get a point then we are guaranteed safe as long as one from Wolves, Barnsley or Huddersfield fail to win. Win and we're safe without relying on other results. We'd be 100% safe before kick off if Wolves & Huddersfield lose wouldn't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markowl Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Let's not start sucking each other's dicks just yet. * zips jeans back up* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWFC_Liam Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 5,000 It WILL be class Bloody hell didn't think we'd take that many with it being on TV, got my ticket on the terrace last week and can't wait now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TC OWL Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 flipping gutted I'm working. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jürgen Weißbrot Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 (edited) We'd be 100% safe before kick off if Wolves & Huddersfield lose wouldn't we?...I've just looked again and it would be on goal difference, so you're right, it'd technically not quite be 100%. It would be 99.9% though. Assuming Huddersfield lost by 1, we'd need to lose by 7 against Peterborough and 8 against Middlesborough (15 goals over 2 games anyway). Edited April 21, 2013 by George Whitebread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash_SWFC Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Thanks for telling me 5 times made it much clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jürgen Weißbrot Posted April 21, 2013 Author Share Posted April 21, 2013 Don't know what you mean Ash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash_SWFC Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Don't know what you mean Ash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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