I posted this on the betting thread but thought it worthy of everyone's view on relegation, trying looking at it without emotion and purely from betting a sense.
I had £10 on us to go down at 100/1 when I heard of the potential points deduction. I've always said it's a bet that I don't want to win.
My £10 bet is currently suspended on Skybet.
Last time I looked, they were offering £2ish cash out for a £10 bet.
Be interesting to see what they're offering now.
I've just been looking at the league table. Luton and Barnsley look gone, and to catch us, they need 5 wins.
Hull are in a similar run of form to us and they sold their 2 best players and not recovered from it. They could easily go down.
Charlton are crap, even we beat them. That said, I think they might scrape out of it.
Boro, Stoke and Huddersfield, I think they will all survive and they may all catch us if we continue our poor recent run. Wigan might just have enough to stay up.
Our current goal difference is worth an extra point unless we get more nasty beatings like yesterday.
My conclusion is that I think we need 1 more win out of the remaining 9 games to be safe. Maybe a draw as well.
Looking at the fixtures, regardless of what people think of Monk, I think we will get this. We will be safe.
The elephant in the room, and the reason that some 'shrewd' punters have latched onto at big odds is the possible/impending points deduction.
If that happens, even if it is only 6 points, I think we will go down.