1/10/1983 Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 I've been looking back at the last decade regarding what points tally and goals total is generally needed for automatic promotion. There are some outlying oddities such as Hull getting the runners up spot in 2013 with only 79 points, likewise Stoke in 2008. I've looked at what the runners up finished with rather than just being one point better off than third as I presumed that a lower total for the runner up might well have seen an improvement in the total of third, fourth etc. The upshot of it is the following: Automatically promoted teams will gain at least 88 points more often than not (14 out of 20.) You generally need at least 26 wins (13 out of 20 and only once less than 23.) No more than 10 losses at the maximum (only 4 out of 20 did so and three of those lost 11.) At least 70 goals scored and 80+ is preferable (15 out of 20.) No more than 45 goals conceded (actually 8 out of 20 have, but only 3 of the last 12.) A leading scorer in the top 10 (16 out of 20) So, looking at the season just gone we need to at least: Win at least two more games, more likely three. Lose three fewer games. Score at least a bare minimum of ten more goals but, more likely, twenty! We are okay on goals conceded at 45. We need one settled, fit striker who scores 20+ League goals. Only 3 out of 20 sides promoted automatically in the past 10 seasons had a final results profile anything like ours from last season. They are: Hull City in 2013 - 79 points (w24/d7/l15/ f61/a52) Birmingham City in 2009 - 83 points (w23/d14/l9/ f54/a37) Stoke City in 2008 - 79 points (w21/d16/l9/ f69/a55) There you have it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RocketOwl Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 And some black players as established tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ron's Sovereign Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 90+ points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S36 OWL Posted May 30, 2017 Share Posted May 30, 2017 More points than third place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaiser soze Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) Getting a good start is essential as over the years we've been haven't been the best. Over the past 17 seasons we've only managed over 20pts from the first 10 games twice....and on both occasions we got Automatic Promotion. 2016/17 W5 D2 L3 (Pts 17) 2015/16 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2014/15 W4 D4 L2 (16) 2013/14 W0 D6 L4 (6) 2012/13 W2 D2 L6 (8) 2011/12 W6 D3 L1 (21) Promotion 2010/11 W4 D2 L4 (14) 2009/10 W3 D4 L3 (13) 2008/09 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2007/08 W2 D0 L8 (6) 2006/07 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2005/06 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2004/05 W4 D3 L3 (15) PO winners 2003/04 W5 D3 L2 (18) 2002/03 W1 D6 L3 (9) 2001/02 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2000/01 W1 D2 L7 (5) 1999/00 W1 D1 L8 (4) 1998/99 W3 D1 L6 (10) 1997/98 W2 D3 L5 (9) 1996/97 W4 D2 L4 (14) 1995/96 W3 D2 L5 (11) 1994/95 W3 D3 D4 (12) 1993/94 W1 D3 L6 (6) 1992/93 W3 D3 L4 (12) 1991/92 W5 D2 L3 (17) 1990/91 W8 D2 L0 (26) Promotion Edited May 31, 2017 by kaiser soze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
new zealand owl Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, kaiser soze said: Getting a good start is essential as over the years we've been haven't been the best. Over the past 17 seasons we've only managed over 20pts from the first 10 games twice....and on both occasions we got Automatic Promotion. 2016/17 W5 D2 L3 (Pts 17) 2015/16 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2014/15 W4 D4 L2 (16) 2013/14 W0 D6 L4 (6) 2012/13 W2 D2 L6 (8) 2011/12 W6 D3 L1 (21) Promotion 2010/11 W4 D2 L4 (14) 2009/10 W3 D4 L3 (13) 2008/09 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2007/08 W2 D0 L8 (6) 2006/07 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2005/06 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2004/05 W4 D3 L3 (15) PO winners 2003/04 W5 D3 L2 (18) 2002/03 W1 D6 L3 (9) 2001/02 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2000/01 W1 D2 L7 (5) 1999/00 W1 D1 L8 (4) 1998/99 W3 D1 L6 (10) 1997/98 W2 D3 L5 (9) 1996/97 W4 D2 L4 (14) 1995/96 W3 D2 L5 (11) 1994/95 W3 D3 D4 (12) 1993/94 W1 D3 L6 (6) 1992/93 W3 D3 L4 (12) 1991/92 W5 D2 L3 (17) 1990/91 W8 D2 L0 (26) Promotion Yep, Mid August to later September seem to be perennial shockers for us. Would like to see those last two seasons stats after 6 or 7 games...even worse I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaiser soze Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, kaiser soze said: Getting a good start is essential as over the years we've been haven't been the best. Over the past 17 seasons we've only managed over 20pts from the first 10 games twice....and on both occasions we got Automatic Promotion. 2016/17 W5 D2 L3 (Pts 17) 2015/16 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2014/15 W4 D4 L2 (16) 2013/14 W0 D6 L4 (6) 2012/13 W2 D2 L6 (8) 2011/12 W6 D3 L1 (21) Promotion 2010/11 W4 D2 L4 (14) 2009/10 W3 D4 L3 (13) 2008/09 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2007/08 W2 D0 L8 (6) 2006/07 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2005/06 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2004/05 W4 D3 L3 (15) PO winners 2003/04 W5 D3 L2 (18) 2002/03 W1 D6 L3 (9) 2001/02 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2000/01 W1 D2 L7 (5) 1999/00 W1 D1 L8 (4) 1998/99 W3 D1 L6 (10) 1997/98 W2 D3 L5 (9) 1996/97 W4 D2 L4 (14) 1995/96 W3 D2 L5 (11) 1994/95 W3 D3 D4 (12) 1993/94 W1 D3 L6 (6) 1992/93 W3 D3 L4 (12) 1991/92 W5 D2 L3 (17) 1990/91 W8 D2 L0 (26) Promotion Correction 27 seasons. It's getting late! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Owl Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Good start is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blatter Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 That sggests we need to get our transfer dealing done before the season starts for a change. Difficult I know as the transfer window is open during August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark1948 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Graph ready for next season Automatic Promotion line based on 2.1 points per game 97 points. This season the competition for promotion includes about 14 teams who want it and look competitive, this points to a low total as teams at the top will be taking points off each other. More and more teams will be playing like Reading, defending hard and hoping to grab a goal to defend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarrowbyOwl Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 9 hours ago, kaiser soze said: Getting a good start is essential as over the years we've been haven't been the best. Over the past 17 seasons we've only managed over 20pts from the first 10 games twice....and on both occasions we got Automatic Promotion. 2016/17 W5 D2 L3 (Pts 17) 2015/16 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2014/15 W4 D4 L2 (16) 2013/14 W0 D6 L4 (6) 2012/13 W2 D2 L6 (8) 2011/12 W6 D3 L1 (21) Promotion 2010/11 W4 D2 L4 (14) 2009/10 W3 D4 L3 (13) 2008/09 W4 D3 L3 (15) 2007/08 W2 D0 L8 (6) 2006/07 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2005/06 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2004/05 W4 D3 L3 (15) PO winners 2003/04 W5 D3 L2 (18) 2002/03 W1 D6 L3 (9) 2001/02 W1 D4 L5 (7) 2000/01 W1 D2 L7 (5) 1999/00 W1 D1 L8 (4) 1998/99 W3 D1 L6 (10) 1997/98 W2 D3 L5 (9) 1996/97 W4 D2 L4 (14) 1995/96 W3 D2 L5 (11) 1994/95 W3 D3 D4 (12) 1993/94 W1 D3 L6 (6) 1992/93 W3 D3 L4 (12) 1991/92 W5 D2 L3 (17) 1990/91 W8 D2 L0 (26) Promotion Because we fanny about too much and don't have a good pre-season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gurujuan Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 11 hours ago, RocketOwl said: And some black players as established tonight. Yes, I don't think we'd score very highly with the BME bods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IstillhateSteveBould Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 9 hours ago, Flat Owl said: Good start is the key. The first few months are what ultimately cost us this season imo. The FF thing, Loovens being out injured, Carlos not playing with a proper defensive midfielder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Middlewood Owl Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 9 hours ago, Flat Owl said: Good start is the key. Absolutely, problem is we're perpetual poor or average starters, there seems to be feeling within the club and some fans that the season doesn't really start to settle down and get going until late September/October and that early season form doesn't matter that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since59owe Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 11 hours ago, Big Ron's Sovereign said: 90+ points Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S13-OWL-B16 Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Good start, good middle and a good end are definitely key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harrysgame Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Quite amazing those stats, didnt realise how poor we have been in the summer. As been said, need to get players in now, with the money we have should be easier than previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 (edited) I was going to start my own thread but as this thread has such good stats I will put on here. The last 20 teams to gain automatic promotion are as follows (the position they finished the year before their automatic promotion is in brackets) Newcastle (Relegated PL) Brighton (3) Burnley (Relegated PL) M'boro (4) Bournemouth (10) Watford (13) Leicester (6) Burnley (11) Cardiff (6) Hull (8) Reading (5) Southampton (promoted L1) QPR (13) Norwich (promoted L1) Newcastle (Relegated PL) WBA (Relegated PL) Wolves (7) Birmingham (Relegated PL) WBA (4) Stoke (8) Relegated from PL - 25% 3-6th - 30% 7-10th - 20% 11-13th - 15% 14th - 21st - 0% Promoted from L1 - 10% Therefore, we can see that in the last 10 years not one single team has finished lower than 13th in The Championship and achieved automatic promotion. Many have gone on to secure a play off place but it seems that improving to the standard required to be in the top 2 is just too much to ask. Therefore, we can discount:- Barnsley Wolves (with their cash surely they look the likely sort to mount a play off challenge) Ipswich Bristol City QPR Birmingham Burton Forest Furthermore, only two teams have gone on to be automatically promoted after coming up from League One. Both of those clubs were big clubs that got 92+ points in League One. Therefore we can discount:- Bolton Millwall None of the clubs that came in the top 2 had a budget as comparatively small as the following that I believe we can discount from automatic promotion:- Brentford Preston Cardiff Therefore, we are left with realistic automatic promotion candidates of:- Hull Boro Sunderland Reading Wednesday Fulham Leeds Norwich Derby Villa Pigs Unless the Hull ownership changes I cannot see them challenging for the top 2. They appear almost certain to have a squad far weaker than the one with which they went up in the play offs. The same really applies to Sunderland. A Chairman apparently reluctant to invest any more money. Monk hardly seemed impressed with what their new Chairman had to say and they are so reliant on Wood having another storming season I'll be surprised if they are in automatic. Surely the financial bridge is too far for United to bridge from League One. Therefore, I am going to stick my neck out and say I would be very surprised, even without assessing the pre-season transfer dealings, if the top 2 next year isn't two from:- Boro Reading Wednesday Fulham Norwich Derby Villa Edited May 31, 2017 by HirstWhoScoredIt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 Monk is no longer at Leeds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredmciverslovechild Posted May 31, 2017 Share Posted May 31, 2017 What is needed is 20 more goals scored, six to ten less conceded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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