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I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in.

It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game.

I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!!

If you play a team above you

Home - 1 point

Away - 0 points

Teams + or minus 2 places

Home - 1 point

Away - 1 point

Teams more than 3 places below

Home - 3 points

Away - 1 point

Teams more than 7 places below

Home - 3 points

Away - 3 points

 

The highlights are

Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away)

Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home)

Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away)

Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away)

Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers

Don’t shoot the messenger

E & O E

I might just be wrong

My entire basis might be wrong

 

FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches

Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!!

Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106

Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105

Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102

Reading 57 +35= 92

Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!)

Leeds 54 + 35 = 89

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Imagine how p#ssed off you'd be missing out on promotion with 102 points :laugh:

 

Also 6th place team will never have 89 points, usually between 72 and 78 is the 6th place target

 

I know you covered all this in your disclaimer but still, not happening.

 

 

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I know and thanks for the acknowledgementWTF:,

The accumulation of points happens with the 7th place and below 3 pointers for home and away,

I couldn't think of a way to manage one off results with this method.

 

I still think it shows accurate potential positions though and it highlights Huddersfield as having the best chance IMO for an automatic chance.....  

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3 minutes ago, pARIS oWL said:

I know and thanks for the acknowledgementWTF:,

The accumulation of points happens with the 7th place and below 3 pointers for home and away,

I couldn't think of a way to manage one off results with this method.

 

I still think it shows accurate potential positions though and it highlights Huddersfield as having the best chance IMO for an automatic chance.....  

I'll say it again, what a load of bollo**s

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53 minutes ago, pARIS oWL said:

I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in.

 

It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game.

 

I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!!

 

If you play a team above you

 

Home - 1 point

 

Away - 0 points

 

Teams + or minus 2 places

 

Home - 1 point

 

Away - 1 point

 

Teams more than 3 places below

 

Home - 3 points

 

Away - 1 point

 

 

Teams more than 7 places below

 

Home - 3 points

 

Away - 3 points

 

The highlights are

 

Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away)

 

Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home)

 

Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away)

 

Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away)

 

Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

 

 

Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers

 

Don’t shoot the messenger

 

E & O E

 

I might just be wrong

 

My entire basis might be wrong

 

 

 

FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches

 

Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!!

Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106

 

Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105

 

Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102

 

Reading 57 +35= 92

 

Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!)

 

Leeds 54 + 35 = 89

 

Nottingham Forest (A)     3
Brentford (H)        3    
Leeds (A)        0
Norwich (H)         1
Burton Albion (H)    3
Aston Villa (A)        3
Reading (H)        1
Barnsley (A)        1
Rotherham (A)        3
Newcastle (H)        1
Cardiff (H)        3
QPR (A)            3
Derby (H)        1
Ipswich (A)        3
Fulham (H)        1
__________________________
            30
__________________________

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4 hours ago, sherlyegg said:

The other way is dead simpler, we have played 31 games and are averaging 1.77 points per game. Times 1.77 x 46 games = 81.6 points. My guess we will end up between 79 and 82 points. Any less than 77 may not be enough

before last nights game if we average 2 pts per match would have left us with 82...so we're in front...if we keep on winning ??

 

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7 hours ago, pARIS oWL said:

I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in.

 

It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game.

 

I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!!

 

If you play a team above you

 

Home - 1 point

 

Away - 0 points

 

Teams + or minus 2 places

 

Home - 1 point

 

Away - 1 point

 

Teams more than 3 places below

 

Home - 3 points

 

Away - 1 point

 

 

Teams more than 7 places below

 

Home - 3 points

 

Away - 3 points

 

The highlights are

 

Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away)

 

Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home)

 

Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away)

 

Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away)

 

Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

 

 

Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers

 

Don’t shoot the messenger

 

E & O E

 

I might just be wrong

 

My entire basis might be wrong

 

 

 

FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches

 

Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!!

Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106

 

Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105

 

Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102

 

Reading 57 +35= 92

 

Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!)

 

Leeds 54 + 35 = 89

 

Is that mathematically possible? 

 

From this stage doe all of the top 6 to finish on 89 points

 

out of curiosity how many games did everyone lose between them? 

 

It cant be many at all 

 

just read the bizzare way the points are calculated ignore my post 

Edited by fpowl
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Right, so something a little more scientific...

 

Based on results so far against teams in the following categories: Home/Away v top third/middle third/bottom third.

 

Then projecting that onto the remaining games against teams in those same categories.

 

For the top 6 it comes out like this:

  1. Brighton 98
  2. Newcastle 92
  3. Huddersfield 91
  4. Wednesday 83
  5. Leeds 82
  6. Reading 81

 

Most interesting thing I noticed looking at our results:

 

Our away form against sides in the middle of the league is terrible.

Played 5, won 0, drawn 3, lost 2.

Average 0.6 points per game.

 

If we can improve that and win 2 out of the 3 remaining games, and maintain home form against the other top 8 sides in the remaining 4 games we have, it's definitely possible to make a realistic push for the top 2...

 

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OK, using a scientific analysis system consisting of reading tea leaves, guesswork, blind faith, consulting the missus and reading chicken entrails my predictions are as follows:

 

1. Sheffield Wednesday
2. Brighton
3. Newcastle
4. Huddersfield
5. Reading
6. Norwich


Nailed on.

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8 hours ago, pARIS oWL said:

I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in.

 

It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game.

 

I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!!

 

If you play a team above you

 

Home - 1 point

 

Away - 0 points

 

Teams + or minus 2 places

 

Home - 1 point

 

Away - 1 point

 

Teams more than 3 places below

 

Home - 3 points

 

Away - 1 point

 

 

Teams more than 7 places below

 

Home - 3 points

 

Away - 3 points

 

The highlights are

 

Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away)

 

Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home)

 

Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away)

 

Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away)

 

Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away)

 

 

 

Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers

 

Don’t shoot the messenger

 

E & O E

 

I might just be wrong

 

My entire basis might be wrong

 

 

 

FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches

 

Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!!

Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106

 

Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105

 

Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102

 

Reading 57 +35= 92

 

Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!)

 

Leeds 54 + 35 = 89

 

When you post on here. Particularly when dealing with numbers and statistics etc. Imagine in future that you are talking to a class of about 200 heavily autistic chimpanzees. Your abstract thoughts and data projections will fare much better this way.

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