pARIS oWL Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in. It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game. I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!! If you play a team above you Home - 1 point Away - 0 points Teams + or minus 2 places Home - 1 point Away - 1 point Teams more than 3 places below Home - 3 points Away - 1 point Teams more than 7 places below Home - 3 points Away - 3 points The highlights are Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away) Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home) Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away) Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away) Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers Don’t shoot the messenger E & O E I might just be wrong My entire basis might be wrong FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!! Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106 Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105 Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102 Reading 57 +35= 92 Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!) Leeds 54 + 35 = 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee A Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Imagine how p#ssed off you'd be missing out on promotion with 102 points Also 6th place team will never have 89 points, usually between 72 and 78 is the 6th place target I know you covered all this in your disclaimer but still, not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViolaOwls Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 what a load of bollo**s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pARIS oWL Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 I know and thanks for the acknowledgement, The accumulation of points happens with the 7th place and below 3 pointers for home and away, I couldn't think of a way to manage one off results with this method. I still think it shows accurate potential positions though and it highlights Huddersfield as having the best chance IMO for an automatic chance..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando_Trustful Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 So the top 3 will all hit over 100+. Reyt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViolaOwls Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, pARIS oWL said: I know and thanks for the acknowledgement, The accumulation of points happens with the 7th place and below 3 pointers for home and away, I couldn't think of a way to manage one off results with this method. I still think it shows accurate potential positions though and it highlights Huddersfield as having the best chance IMO for an automatic chance..... I'll say it again, what a load of bollo**s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxonOwl Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I think it is flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owl4528 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 To get top two it will be closer to 90 points. If we win 10 of our last 15 then we will have 85 points, probably just short for top two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarrowbyOwl Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, pARIS oWL said: I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in. It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game. I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!! If you play a team above you Home - 1 point Away - 0 points Teams + or minus 2 places Home - 1 point Away - 1 point Teams more than 3 places below Home - 3 points Away - 1 point Teams more than 7 places below Home - 3 points Away - 3 points The highlights are Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away) Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home) Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away) Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away) Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers Don’t shoot the messenger E & O E I might just be wrong My entire basis might be wrong FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!! Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106 Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105 Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102 Reading 57 +35= 92 Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!) Leeds 54 + 35 = 89 Nottingham Forest (A) 3 Brentford (H) 3 Leeds (A) 0 Norwich (H) 1 Burton Albion (H) 3 Aston Villa (A) 3 Reading (H) 1 Barnsley (A) 1 Rotherham (A) 3 Newcastle (H) 1 Cardiff (H) 3 QPR (A) 3 Derby (H) 1 Ipswich (A) 3 Fulham (H) 1 __________________________ 30 __________________________ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladeshater Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, ViolaOwls said: what a load of bollo**s Welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViolaOwls Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Cheers Bazza love! It seems we have more loons joining the asylum on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 The other way is dead simpler, we have played 31 games and are averaging 1.77 points per game. Times 1.77 x 46 games = 81.6 points. My guess we will end up between 79 and 82 points. Any less than 77 may not be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aeroswfc Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Can't see us reaching 92 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveyboy66 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 4 hours ago, sherlyegg said: The other way is dead simpler, we have played 31 games and are averaging 1.77 points per game. Times 1.77 x 46 games = 81.6 points. My guess we will end up between 79 and 82 points. Any less than 77 may not be enough before last nights game if we average 2 pts per match would have left us with 82...so we're in front...if we keep on winning ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greengrass Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Is a win still 3 points ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fpowl Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 (edited) 7 hours ago, pARIS oWL said: I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in. It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game. I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!! If you play a team above you Home - 1 point Away - 0 points Teams + or minus 2 places Home - 1 point Away - 1 point Teams more than 3 places below Home - 3 points Away - 1 point Teams more than 7 places below Home - 3 points Away - 3 points The highlights are Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away) Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home) Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away) Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away) Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers Don’t shoot the messenger E & O E I might just be wrong My entire basis might be wrong FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!! Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106 Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105 Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102 Reading 57 +35= 92 Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!) Leeds 54 + 35 = 89 Is that mathematically possible? From this stage doe all of the top 6 to finish on 89 points out of curiosity how many games did everyone lose between them? It cant be many at all just read the bizzare way the points are calculated ignore my post Edited February 15, 2017 by fpowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nebneeb Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Right, so something a little more scientific... Based on results so far against teams in the following categories: Home/Away v top third/middle third/bottom third. Then projecting that onto the remaining games against teams in those same categories. For the top 6 it comes out like this: Brighton 98 Newcastle 92 Huddersfield 91 Wednesday 83 Leeds 82 Reading 81 Most interesting thing I noticed looking at our results: Our away form against sides in the middle of the league is terrible. Played 5, won 0, drawn 3, lost 2. Average 0.6 points per game. If we can improve that and win 2 out of the 3 remaining games, and maintain home form against the other top 8 sides in the remaining 4 games we have, it's definitely possible to make a realistic push for the top 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Night-Owl Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 When did the Football League introduce rugby union's bonus points system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John West Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 OK, using a scientific analysis system consisting of reading tea leaves, guesswork, blind faith, consulting the missus and reading chicken entrails my predictions are as follows: 1. Sheffield Wednesday 2. Brighton 3. Newcastle 4. Huddersfield 5. Reading 6. Norwich Nailed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Internationowl Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 8 hours ago, pARIS oWL said: I read something a couple of years ago (can’t remember where?) about forecasting results and the resulting league positions at the end of season for the run in. It wasn’t based on form or judgement, it was purely based on the the principle of dictated results, Home or Away against the teams above, teams + or minus 2 places and then teams more than 3 places below and 7 places below, with pre-determined points for each game. I can’t remember the exact pointages so I’ve made my own up !!!! If you play a team above you Home - 1 point Away - 0 points Teams + or minus 2 places Home - 1 point Away - 1 point Teams more than 3 places below Home - 3 points Away - 1 point Teams more than 7 places below Home - 3 points Away - 3 points The highlights are Newcastle, top of the league still have to play 5 of the top 6 (4 away) Brighton play 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Huddersfield play 2 of the top 6 (both at Home) Reading 5 of the top 6 (3 away) Leeds 4 of the top 6 (2 away) Wednesday 3 of the top 6 (1 away) Anyway’s I wish to offer the usual disclaimers Don’t shoot the messenger E & O E I might just be wrong My entire basis might be wrong FINAL PREDICTION – I started this before last night’s matches Before anyone mentions it, the 100 plus points from 3 teams seems a little excessive compared to previous year but hey ho !!!!! Brighton 64 points + 42 predicted = 106 Newcastle 65 + 40 = 105 Huddersfield 58 + 44 = 102 Reading 57 +35= 92 Wednesday 52 + 40 = 92 (I have given myself some license with our results !!) Leeds 54 + 35 = 89 When you post on here. Particularly when dealing with numbers and statistics etc. Imagine in future that you are talking to a class of about 200 heavily autistic chimpanzees. Your abstract thoughts and data projections will fare much better this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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