Play Off Stats

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

This is what I did on another thread. Here I went back to the start of the Championship play offs.

Whilst my post earlier shows a bias towards teams playing at home in the second leg over the past ten seasons - the stats from the entire history show no such bias.

The Championship Play offs have been going in their present format since 1989/90.

Before that, they existed for a few seasons but the team from the top division that finished one spot above the relegation zone also competed in them.

In the 26 play offs (in the current format), the winners have been split as follows:-

3rd = 9 winners

4th = 5 winners

5th = 7 winners

6th = 5 winners

_{* In 94/95 Bolton won the play offs after finishing 3rd. However in that season only the top team went up automatically, hence Bolton were the second ranked play off team so they are counted as finishing 4th above.}

_{** In 90/91 Notts County won the play offs after finishing 4th. However, in that season the top three teams went up automatically, hence County were the top ranked play off team so they are counted as finishing 3rd above.}

_{*** In 89/90 Swindon won the play offs after finishing 4th. Hence their result is included even though they were subsequently disqualified (and the FL bizarrely decided to promote Play Off runners up Sunderland who finished 6th instead of Newcastle who finished 3rd or Wednesday who were the highest ranked relegated team)}

Therefore, the common concept that the team that finishes third is on a downer and therefore doesn't do well in the play offs is false. However, that may have something to do with the fact that they usually know before the last match that they need to prepare themselves for the play offs.

The ultimate disappointment to get over before the play offs is not winning your last match and knowing that if you had, you would have got promoted. Either Boro or Brighton seem almost certain to suffer this fate this season as they play each other last match and are currently level on points.

It has only happened twice before since 1990 when a team has failed to win the last match and if they had they would have gained automatic promotion. I was surprised at its rarity. Bolton suffered this fate in 1995 but bounced back to win the play offs. Watford lost at home to Leeds in 2013 when a win would have given them automatic and subsequently went on to lose the play off final to Palace.

12 of the 26 play off winners have finished 5th or 6th thereby showing that playing the first leg at home is hardly any disadvantage at all. Indeed, possibly none if you argue that the slight bias towards teams coming 3rd and 4th is due to them being better teams.

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

Another relevant stat:-

Over 30,000 at Hillsborough

P14 W10 D4 L0 F27 A8 Pts 34

30/4/15 v Cardiff - won 3-0 - 31,843

27/10/15 v Arsenal - won 3-0 - 35,065

4/5/13 v Boro - won 2-0 - 31,375

5/5/12 v Wycombe - won 2-0 - 38,082

26/2/12 v Pigs - won 1-0 - 36,364

2/5/10 v Palace - Drew 2-2 - 37,121

18/4/10 v Pigs - Drew 1-1 - 35,485

26/12/09 v Newcastle - Drew 2-2 - 30,030

8/8/09 v Barnsley - Drew 2-2 - 30,644

3/5/09 v Cardiff - won 1-0 - 30,658

19/10/08 v Pigs - won 1-0 - 30,441

4/5/08 v Norwich - won 4-1 - 36,208

19/1/08 v Pigs - won 2-0 - 30,406

15/4/06 v Norwich - won 1-0 30,755

Edited May 4, 2016 by HirstWhoScoredIt

[londonowl]

That 12 point stay is totally irrelevant as the sample size is too small to have any meaning.

I looked at every Championship season since 2000 and there have only been two occasions when a team has been more than 12 points behind the team in third.

And on one of those two occasions the team in third didn't go up anyway.

So there is zero evidence this makes any difference whatsoever.

It should be noted that a gap larger than 12 points has never been overcome in the playoffs in any division, not just the championship.

I can't be bothered doing it but before you make conclusions, you should look at all the relevant stats for all divisions in all years of playoffs as I did. I gave the information from all playoffs, in all 3 divisions since the beginning of the playoffs and you dismiss it based on 15 years of a single division.

In reality, it can be argued that the sample size is too small for all the statistics but the 12 point thing was more of a historical note than a statistic.

Flounce over.

[vfowl]

you really are bored arnt you. lets just enjoy what we have - the team, the manager, the chairman, league position etc etc it wont last forever so lets just fly high and enjoy today stats never mean anything.

[ViolaOwls]

Bookies are a greedy tw**s by not giving the odds of this again, so they say. Im sure theres one or two that will give longer odds

[OxonOwl]

Don't confuse odds with probability

[since59owe]

Sheffield Wednesday playoff stat - 100% 

Exactly

[seat172]

The points gap may be more than 12 for us now but proves nowt. We didn't assemble "the team" and start playing until we were 7 games in.

Apply the average points from game 8 onward to the first 7 games and the points gap wouldn't be 12.........

 

So where's that leave us..........?????

 

We ARE going to win............................BELIEVE people, BELIEVE

[Road Runner]

If Brighton end up in the playoffs

Another stat:

All play off teams will have animal nicknames.

Seagulls

Tigers

Rams

Owls

Owls, Seagulls and Tigers are predators.

Owls can be as aggressive as Seagulls but Seagulls are scared of bluefin tuna because when fisherman drops bait to capture tuna, Seagulls try to intercept that bait for the tuna not realising the Tuna is much bigger and usually eats the seagull.

That's Brighton out.

Rams v Tigers, Tigers are predators and will destroy a ram in seconds (not in that way) Rams mating season is November and December usually so cannot perform in May.

Derby are out....

That leaves the owl v the tiger in the final.

Tigers have a strong bite and come across confident but the horny owl is also known as the tiger owl or tiger with wings and let's be fair we will be horny that day.

So we have a tiger v a tiger with wings. The horny owl is a secretive owl with a destructive stealth who are usually aggressive. They know their keepers (Carlos) and accepts what the keeper wants it to do with tolerance.

So two Tigers going head to head, same speed but one with wings.

We will pick the meat of the Tigers bit by bit after assessing the situation.

Hull city are out.

Sheffield Wednesday 2015-2016 play off winners.

And it's the year of the monkey in China, last time we won the play offs we beat the monkey hangers.

Rest easy we will win.

[Daavies;]

If Brighton end up in the playoffs

Another stat:

All play off teams will have animal nicknames.

Seagulls

Tigers

Rams

Owls

Owls, Seagulls and Tigers are predators.

Owls can be as aggressive as Seagulls but Seagulls are scared of bluefin tuna because when fisherman drops bait to capture tuna, Seagulls try to intercept that bait for the tuna not realising the Tuna is much bigger and usually eats the seagull.

That's Brighton out.

Rams v Tigers, Tigers are predators and will destroy a ram in seconds (not in that way) Rams mating season is November and December usually so cannot perform in May.

Derby are out....

That leaves the owl v the tiger in the final.

Tigers have a strong bite and come across confident but the horny owl is also known as the tiger owl or tiger with wings and let's be fair we will be horny that day.

So we have a tiger v a tiger with wings. The horny owl is a secretive owl with a destructive stealth who are usually aggressive. They know their keepers (Carlos) and accepts what the keeper wants it to do with tolerance.

So two Tigers going head to head, same speed but one with wings.

We will pick the meat of the Tigers bit by bit after assessing the situation.

Hull city are out.

Sheffield Wednesday 2015-2016 play off winners.

And it's the year of the monkey in China, last time we won the play offs we beat the monkey hangers.

Rest easy we will win.

That's most sense I've read on this statistic thread.

[33]

Sheffield Wednesday playoff stat - 100%

Absolutelelely

Also forgot to mention the other team in Sheffield with a 100% play-off record.

[Road Runner]

That's most sense I've read on this statistic thread.

Thanks

[seat172]

 

Absolutelelely

Also forgot to mention the other team in Sheffield with a 100% play-off record.

 

more of this^^^^^^^

 

7 attempts, none executed for you the chase is over.................................

[carterowl]

Sky Bet Championship To Win The Playoffs 15/16 - To Win The Play Offs

Hull 2/1

Derby 3/1

Sheffield Wednesday 7/2

Brighton 7/2

Middlesbrough 9/1

[abrodie2002]

We're Sheffield Wednesday, we do what we want

[seat172]

Bookies cut their risk as the amount of money bet rises, so the current odds are as much to do with how much punters are putting on their team of choice, more than the probability of it happening.

 

They only get stung once, it's a business.

 

Our odds will shorten as the bets rise, although why we are longer odds than Derby beats me.

[nebneeb]

Has someone analysed the statistics of the winner of the 3rd v 6th game, ONLY when the 3rd placed team has failed to win their final game, and this result has cost them automatic promotion?

[Buxtongent]

For some reason , Wed seem to be the almost forgotten team in the media.

No-one gave Leicester a chance of winning the Premiership at the start of the season.

Two very important facts. Keep the media off our backs and we're in with a chance.

Ignore the Bookies' Odds. That can be so much influenced by the actual number of fans a team has. Bookies don't look at statistics. They work on the principle of what the market is doing. A team is favourite when the Bookies decide which they can least afford to lose on. The favourite is not necessarily the best horse/team, and doesn't always win.

 

Incidentally, though I am over the moon that we are in the Play-offs with a chance of promotion, am I the only one who considers it totally unfair that, should it happen, Wednesday should be promoted over 'boro, or Brighton, both of whom, with the final match to play, have so far gained at least 10 points ( that's 3+ wins more than us ) over a full season? It makes League Football into extended Cup  football.

[OxonOwl]

Everyone knows the rules at the start of the competition...

 

 

I always thought Tranmere were hard done by losing to Hartlepool but I wouldn't have had them go up rather than us

[HirstWhoScoredIt]

Has someone analysed the statistics of the winner of the 3rd v 6th game, ONLY when the 3rd placed team has failed to win their final game, and this result has cost them automatic promotion?

 

See my post 22.

 

It has only happened twice.

 

They beat the 6th team both times.