londonowl Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. There's a million threads about who we want to play, if it's actually an advantage to play home leg first or second etc etc so I've compiled a collection of totally useless playoff statistics. In the last 22 years of Championship (or 2nd Division) playoffs. Team finishing 3rd has reached the final 67% of the time and been promoted 37% of the time. Team finishing 4th has reached the final 50% of the time and been promoted 18% of the time. Team finishing 5th has reached the final 50% of the time and been promoted 27% of the time. Team finishing 6th has reached the final 33% of the time and been promoted 18% of the time. The biggest points gap ever between the team that got promoted and the 3rd place finishing team is 12. This is across the championship and league one in the entire history of the play offs. This gap has been overcome 4 times but a team finishing more than 12 points behind the 3rd place team has never been promoted. The next one wasn't done by me but stolen. Last year, a guy analysed 15 years of playoffs in the championship and league one. He analysed 7 different factors to look for a correlation with the eventual playoff finalists and winners. He analysed Home Form (last 6 home matches), Away Form (last 6 away games), Combined Form over Last 10 Games, Final Points Total, Final League Position, Result of Final Regular Season Match and The percentage of a teams overall league points tally that had come in their last 12 games. He found that only 2 of these had any statistical impact upon the results of Play Offs. These two were final league position and final points tally. All other measures of form showed no correlation to the results of playoff semi finals or finals. I know it's a lot of reading, quite dull and no even vaguely important. I just found it interesting because I'm weird like that. If you skipped through it without reading (and I couldn't blame you) it concludes that it doesn't matter who is in form and who is not, doesn't matter if you play home or away first. We have to overcome the 3rd place team who any idiot could have told you are play off favourites and, if we don't close the gap to within 12 points of the 3rd place team before the end of the season, we will need to become the first team in playoff history to win them from more than 12 points behind 3rd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DobbinTheDonkey Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Sheffield Wednesday playoff stat - 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codrowe Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Love stats and articles like that. Records are meant to be broken. Another stat Leicester 5000-1 to win the prem same odds as Elvis still being alive apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Me too,...especially the first team in history bit, cos there is always a first team in history one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
londonowl Posted May 3, 2016 Author Share Posted May 3, 2016 Love stats and articles like that. Records are meant to be broken. Another stat Leicester 5000-1 to win the prem same odds as Elvis still being alive apparently Bookies won't make that mistake again! Boro are only 1000-1 to win Prem next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I had an £1 treble, Leicester @5000/1 , Elivis alive @ 5000/1 and the blunties promoted @ 25,000/1......if Elvis turns up I'll be reyt sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan™ Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 If we beat Wolves the points difference to 3rd can't be higher than 12 anyway, so we should hopefully be okay with that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sherlyegg Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Ladbrokes on radio today said they will never offer 5000/1 ever again on a football single bet, max from now on will be 1500/1 (i think or could have said 2500) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S36 OWL Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 Its the year of the outsider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah Owl Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 WAWAW so no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S36 OWL Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 I had an £1 treble, Leicester @5000/1 , Elivis alive @ 5000/1 and the blunties promoted @ 25,000/1......if Elvis turns up I'll be reyt sick Why spoil a sensible bet by betting on them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
themaskedowl Posted May 3, 2016 Share Posted May 3, 2016 While we're talking about stats etc. does anyone know the last time the Championship had all promotion contenders (top 6) and all relegation teams (bottom 3) completely decided before the last match of the season? Not worth it's own thread, and apologies if this has already been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pompeyowl Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 67% + 50% + 50% + 33% = 200% I'm not sure what to make of these stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darklord Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Here's a stat: Championship play off champions 2016: Sheffield Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clowne Owl Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 67% + 50% + 50% + 33% = 200% I'm not sure what to make of these stats. It's because he's counting 2 leagues for stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaping Lannys Perm Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 67% + 50% + 50% + 33% = 200% I'm not sure what to make of these stats. Two teams make the final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
londonowl Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 It's because he's counting 2 leagues for stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owls_fan_since_1983 Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Forget about the stats, Wednesday are on the way back to the top division, we got better players and a decent manager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 I put this in another thread but probably better in here. In the last 10 seasons, the teams playing home in the first leg have reached the final on 6 occasions. The teams playing the second leg at home have reached the final 14 times. This may not be just because of it being better to be at home second, as these teams are also statistically the better teams as they have finished higher. The six teams to have played at home in the first leg and made the final are:- Leeds in 2006 - they drew at home 1-1 before winning away 2-0. They lost in the final. Burnley in 2009 - they won at home 1-0 before winning away 2-0. They beat the Pigs in the final. Blackpool in 2010 - they won 2-1 at home before winning 4-3 away. They beat Cardiff in the final. Reading in 2011 - they drew 0-0 at home before winning away 3-0. They lost to Swansea in the final. Blackpool in 2012 - they won 2-1 at home before drawing 2-2 away. They lost to West Ham In the final. Crystal Palace in 2013 - They drew 0-0 at home before winning 3-0 away. They beat Watford in the final. Of the 14 teams that have gone out playing at home first, they have won the first leg only once, drawn four times and lost an incredible nine. Therefore based on the last ten years we can say:- Lose the first leg when playing at home and that team has got knocked out 100% of the time. Draw the first leg at home and you go through 43% of the time and go out 57% of the time. Win the first leg at home and you go through 75% of the time. Therefore, we simply must not lose the home leg. Winning the first leg obviously helps but drawing isn't disastrous. A positive approach at home looks like a must. Interestingly 5 of the six teams above won the away leg, none lost. The most fascinating stat, is that only one team has made the final that lost EITHER leg of the semi final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HirstWhoScoredIt Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. There's a million threads about who we want to play, if it's actually an advantage to play home leg first or second etc etc so I've compiled a collection of totally useless playoff statistics. In the last 22 years of Championship (or 2nd Division) playoffs. Team finishing 3rd has reached the final 67% of the time and been promoted 37% of the time. Team finishing 4th has reached the final 50% of the time and been promoted 18% of the time. Team finishing 5th has reached the final 50% of the time and been promoted 27% of the time. Team finishing 6th has reached the final 33% of the time and been promoted 18% of the time. The biggest points gap ever between the team that got promoted and the 3rd place finishing team is 12. This is across the championship and league one in the entire history of the play offs. This gap has been overcome 4 times but a team finishing more than 12 points behind the 3rd place team has never been promoted. The next one wasn't done by me but stolen. Last year, a guy analysed 15 years of playoffs in the championship and league one. He analysed 7 different factors to look for a correlation with the eventual playoff finalists and winners. He analysed Home Form (last 6 home matches), Away Form (last 6 away games), Combined Form over Last 10 Games, Final Points Total, Final League Position, Result of Final Regular Season Match and The percentage of a teams overall league points tally that had come in their last 12 games. He found that only 2 of these had any statistical impact upon the results of Play Offs. These two were final league position and final points tally. All other measures of form showed no correlation to the results of playoff semi finals or finals. I know it's a lot of reading, quite dull and no even vaguely important. I just found it interesting because I'm weird like that. If you skipped through it without reading (and I couldn't blame you) it concludes that it doesn't matter who is in form and who is not, doesn't matter if you play home or away first. We have to overcome the 3rd place team who any idiot could have told you are play off favourites and, if we don't close the gap to within 12 points of the 3rd place team before the end of the season, we will need to become the first team in playoff history to win them from more than 12 points behind 3rd place. That 12 point stay is totally irrelevant as the sample size is too small to have any meaning. I looked at every Championship season since 2000 and there have only been two occasions when a team has been more than 12 points behind the team in third. And on one of those two occasions the team in third didn't go up anyway. So there is zero evidence this makes any difference whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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