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Playing at home in the first leg


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I too have been saying for a while that I fancy us at home first. Go into the home leg with the pressure off us, especially as the underdogs against a team that's just missed out on automatic promotion on the last day. Hopefully get a lead then go and defend it. We've shown we're capable of being very solid and excellent on the counter.

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In the last 10 seasons, the teams playing home in the first leg have reached the final on 6 occasions. The teams playing the second leg at home have reached the final 14 times.

This may not be just because of it being better to be at home second, as these teams are also statistically the better teams as they have finished higher.

The six teams to have played at home in the first leg and made the final are:-

Leeds in 2006 - they drew at home 1-1 before winning away 2-0. They lost in the final.

Burnley in 2009 - they won at home 1-0 before winning away 2-0. They beat the Pigs in the final.

Blackpool in 2010 - they won 2-1 at home before winning 4-3 away. They beat Cardiff in the final.

Reading in 2011 - they drew 0-0 at home before winning away 3-0. They lost to Swansea in the final.

Blackpool in 2012 - they won 2-1 at home before drawing 2-2 away. They lost to West Ham

In the final.

Crystal Palace in 2013 - They drew 0-0 at home before winning 3-0 away. They beat Watford in the final.

Of the 14 teams that have gone out playing at home first, they have won the first leg only once, drawn four times and lost an incredible nine.

Therefore based on the last ten years we can say:-

Lose the first leg when playing at home and that team has got knocked out 100% of the time.

Draw the first leg at home and you go through 43% of the time and go out 57% of the time.

Win the first leg at home and you go through 75% of the time.

Therefore, we simply must not lose the home leg.

Winning the first leg obviously helps but drawing isn't disastrous.

A positive approach at home looks like a must.

Interestingly 5 of the six teams above won the away leg, none lost.

The most fascinating stat, is that only one team has made the final that lost EITHER leg of the semi final.

This isn't really that surprising. Given a two legged tie against a team of similar ability, it's fairly obvious that losing the first leg puts you at a disadvantage compared to winning or drawing it. The interesting bit would be whether there's any significant difference between the results of teams playing home first and losing and teams playing away first and losing. That shows whether playing at home helps you overcome a disadvantage from the first leg.

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This isn't really that surprising. Given a two legged tie against a team of similar ability, it's fairly obvious that losing the first leg puts you at a disadvantage compared to winning or drawing it. The interesting bit would be whether there's any significant difference between the results of teams playing home first and losing and teams playing away first and losing. That shows whether playing at home helps you overcome a disadvantage from the first leg.

Only one team has ever lost ANY leg (last 10 seasons), home or away and got to the final.

So the fact is you can't lose home OR away if you realistically want to get to the final.

Edited by HirstWhoScoredIt
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who knows.......play at home 1st you start level and can play your normal game ....bit different if you start the home game 2

down your under pressure from the off and if the opposites score first then it s very very difficult .it reality it doesnt really

matter coz its how you play over 2 legs and if we hit our straps and have a bit of luck which we are probably due we can beat anyone

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With no away goals rule, I would think the advantage is that if tied at the end of the second leg, extra time/shootout is at home.

 

I'd love to see us start the second leg with a lead, and be able to hit back on the counter against a pressing side.

Aaah, the great Ronnie Drew. 

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Been saying all season someone is going to get a reyt hammering off us. What better place to start than in 1st leg of Play off semis ?

And it just could be that the Cardiff performance was a turning point after a quiet spell for us. Pretty much the complete performance, against a decent side. Total dominance, lots of chances, not a sniff for the opposites, and our goal poacher extraordinaire better than ever...I keep getting the thought that we could really post a healthy lead in the first leg.

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Prefer being home first:

When away first there is temptation to be defensive in first leg and go for it at home.

When home first get two bites at cherry.. Go for it at home and if only draw etc still have chance in away leg to have another go.

Also if we did manage to get a slight advantage from first leg fancy our chances more away if opposition has to go for it and we can hit them on break.

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The benefit of being away first is diminished significantly without the away goals rule. Our best option is playing a travel-weary and disappointed Brighton at home, and getting a lead that means that they have to go for it from the off when they're at home, and a little more tired.

Edited by swfc4_sufc0
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We gotta go for it first leg. 30+ thousand fans, Hillsborough rocking. The aim should be to finish the tie in the first leg imo none of this keep it tight nonsense

I agree. We need the sort of tempo we had against Cardiff. Especially with our team being 7 days fresher than our oppos.

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We gotta go for it first leg. 30+ thousand fans, Hillsborough rocking. The aim should be to finish the tie in the first leg imo none of this keep it tight nonsense

At their throats from minute one.

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